The Flames Expansion Draft Protection/Exposure/Exempt Thread

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Because he will cost quite a bit more on 1 July when several more teams are bidding than he will on 19 June. They could end up selecting a lesser and more easily replaceable player than Engelland in the expansion draft, and then risk losing out on Engelland altogether.

I would have to think that the number of UFAs who will choose to sign in LV before the expansion draft is very small, and when bidding against other NHL teams in the UFA market they will likely have to overpay. Moreover, I would also think that LV will look to maximize their flexibility by selecting players without term. Brouwer's three remaining years probably a sticking point.

Engelland is a special case though IMO being a local essentially. As there will likely be hand shake deals to not sign UFA's till after the draft (Stone), I am certain Vegas will talk to agents and get a general feeling on their ability to sign free agents and what not. Which is against the rules, but I am sure it happens.

Regardless I was responding to Enoch mentioning a 5th or 6th round pick will be all it takes for Vegas to take an undesirable. I disagree with that notion.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

If he wants to go there why not wait?

You could have Brouwer and Engelland. Maybe pay a little more for Engelland in free agency but if you are front runner anyway for him why does it matter?

It matters for the same reason that teams commonly pursue their pending UFAs prior to the opening of the Free Agent market. It matters for the same reason that teams will trade draft picks for UFA negotiating rights.

Of course, the scenario you argue is certainly plausible—I just happen to think that you are asserting it too vociferously. There remains an immanently reasonable chance that things play out as I have outlined, and I don't understand why you are so committed to insisting on that LV's expansion draft plan is so obvious.

[Robbob]

Vegas has to hit 44M from the expansion draft. They can't really grab 30 players on their entry level deals. I think similar to when Florida took Skrudland, they will be looking for some vets to help build that culture. They are helped out by the fact that they are guaranteed top five pick for the first few years so it doesn't hurt them if they have a veteran team that may win more than an average expansion team.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Engelland is a special case though IMO being a local essentially. As there will likely be hand shake deals to not sign UFA's till after the draft (Stone), I am certain Vegas will talk to agents and get a general feeling on their ability to sign free agents and what not. Which is against the rules, but I am sure it happens...

I actually think it more likely that LV will approach UFAs like Stone, the majority of whom will politely decline their contract offers and then sign extensions with their current team or test the market two weeks later. Do you believe that if LV is interested in acquiring Engelland that they will choose to not approach him during their exclusive negotiating window? I think if they can get a deal done with him prior to the expansion draft at a reasonable figure they will do it.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I actually think it more likely that LV will approach UFAs like Stone, the majority of whom will politely decline their contract offers and then sign extensions with their current team or test the market two weeks later.

The league will not be okay with this.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Can the league really stop it from happening though? UFA players have no obligation to sign in Vegas.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

The league will not be okay with this.

What are they going to do about it? LV cannot require that UFAs they offer contracts to must sign them. If the league believes that teams are colluding with players then they will need to prove it, and that will be nearly impossible.

[powderjunkie]

My observation from using Capfriendly's expansion tool a while back is that there weren't actually very many high salary guys with any attractive qualities likely to be exposed, AND on teams that didn't have attractive younger players. The ideal for LV would be a player who's salary < cap hit, but again, not many of those are out there either (without NMCs). I think Brouwer would be one of the most likely candidates for a high $ selection, assuming Vegas wants to go that route at all.

There are an abundance of intriguing players aged 22-26 - especially defensemen. If I'm LV, I'm selecting the minimum 14 forwards and loading up on young defencemen. Maybe a few extra goaltenders too, but I suspect a 24 y.o. d-man holds more value than a good back up.

I think it is almost certain that Calgary will lose a forward. If left exposed, I don't think Lazar would be a smart selection for them anyways (LV will not be a good setting for a young reclamation project). I would still lean to protecting Ferland and either Lazar/Shinkaruk (let's say Lazar).

I don't think it's worth spending any additional assets to determine our fate between Brouwer/Stajan/Shinkaruk.

In the end, I bet Shinkaruk is selected by LV.

But as I say that I also consider the trade value of Brouwer at 50% retained...that will be another good strategy for Vegas to meet the floor. I feel like maybe players can't be traded back to their teams? But I'd give Shinkaruk and another small asset for Brouwer half retained...

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Because he will cost quite a bit more on 1 July when several more teams are bidding than he will on 19 June. They could end up selecting a lesser and more easily replaceable player than Engelland in the expansion draft, and then risk losing out on Engelland altogether.

I would have to think that the number of UFAs who will choose to sign in LV before the expansion draft is very small, and when bidding against other NHL teams in the UFA market they will likely have to overpay. Engelland is one of maybe three or four quality UFAs who would already have LV on his own short list. Moreover, I would also think that LV will look to maximize their flexibility by selecting players without term. Brouwer's three remaining years probably a sticking point.

But then why would Engelland sign in Vegas early if he could get more money to play on a better team by waiting til free agency?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

But then why would Engelland sign in Vegas early if he could get more money to play on a better team by waiting til free agency?

For the same reason that any pending UFA chooses to sign with the team that holds their rights, possibly foregoing a bigger payday. As I mentioned to Weitz, this situation could play out any number of ways, and it is a mistake to dismiss any of them as reasonably possible outcomes.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GGG

The counter argument is you can sign a Brower for Brower's contract every year in free agency. His skill set is not a rare commodity and he currently is not out performing his contract. For example we signed the better version in Frolik the year before. And not having looked at the UFA list for this year I am pretty certain you can find another one to sign.

There are fewer solid RW available as UFAs than you think. The Flames could take a run at Oshie, but a lot of teams will be in the bidding, and he'll get money and term. After that you're looking at broken down vets on their last legs like Sharp and Williams, or marginal guys like Teddy Purcell.

Frolik and Brouwer were two of the better RW UFA signing in each of the last two years. You can't expect to be able to keep going to that well every year.

[Reggie Dunlop]

After thinking about it, Engelland doesn't necessarily choose Las Vegas (or even the Flames to be honest).

This will likely be Engelland's last contract. Can't blame him if he follows the money.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There are fewer solid RW available as UFAs than you think. The Flames could take a run at Oshie, but a lot of teams will be in the bidding, and he'll get money and term. After that you're looking at broken down vets on their last legs like Sharp and Williams, or marginal guys like Teddy Purcell.

Frolik and Brouwer were two of the better RW UFA signing in each of the last two years. You can't expect to be able to keep going to that well every year.

Add Vrbata and Stafford to that list. Hell, Patrick Eaves is already a 20 goal scorer this year (though I pity the fool who overpays him based on that).

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

What are they going to do about it? LV cannot require that UFAs they offer contracts to must sign them. If the league believes that teams are colluding with players then they will need to prove it, and that will be nearly impossible.

http://www.tsn.ca/concerns-about-nhl...merge-1.609388

McPhee wisely worries that a team or two might do a "drawer deal'' with a pending UFA but not officially sign it until after the expansion draft. Why? Teams don't have to protect pending free agents because they aren't eligible for the expansion draft. Here's an example: If the San Jose Sharks didn't officially re-sign Joe Thornton until after the expansion draft, they could protect another player.

"There has to be a high level of diligence to make sure those things don't happen and to make sure people know there will be significant penalties imposed if they were to screw around with the rules,'' Daly said.

Daly said violators of the expansion rules forgo a first-round draft pick, so penalties in the same vein would be "appropriate." New Jersey Devils GM Ray Shero insisted anyone would be crazy to attempt that type of circumvention.

"I certainly don't want to be involved in that because I certainly love my job and can't afford the fine," Shero said with a smile. "Sure, we talked about it today [in the GMs meeting]. Those are the what-ifs? But with anything, everything has to pass the smell test with the league. You got to have some big you-know-whats to screw around with that.''

[Samonadreau]

^ but as mentioned how are they going to prove that there was a 'drawer deal'?

[oldschoolcalgary]

Stone has a perfectly legit reason for signing in Calgary as a UFA though, even if LV offers a bit more.

His wife's family are Calgarians, as is his wife.

UFAs sign for less money all the time for any number of reasons...

i am hopeful that Stone will resign here after the expansion draft... not sure why the league would have any issue with that

[FireGilbert]

It is going to be very tough to determine if there are under the table deals. I think it could go something like this though:

1. Any players re-signing after July 1st will be investigated.
2. If they find out that player did not negotiate with any other team then you have to assume an under the table deal.

If the Sharks wait until after July 1st to re-sign Thornton it will be very suspicious for example.

[calgaryblood]

Daly can talk and threaten but in reality he can't do anything.

He can't force a team to hurry up with negotiations just to please Las Vegas.

Imagine being a UFA and knowing the team that wants you has to sign you by a certain date...wouldn't you hold out until the last minute for more money?

Daly and the NHL can't and won't do anything.

[thymebalm]

If there is any way at all to retain both Stone and Engelland at the expense of Brouwer, I'm sure Treliving is going to try it.

[Samonadreau]

Yup it would be all speculation and hearsay even in Thornton's case. They would need hard evidence.