American Politics Thread: Orange is the new POTUS (Archive)

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by station

Conspiracy theory time. Does anyone else think the barrage of agressive executive orders in the first few days is part of a Republican plan to set Trump up for failure? The orders are not mundane or limited to undoing Obama's legacy. They are his most controversial topics: immigration, refugees, the wall, climate change, torture, abortion, media censorship. All of these things are going to galvanize his opposition and immediately hurt his overall popularity.

I think his hardcore base of deplorables is around 20% and the other 26% voted for him because jobs, or just thought he might actually somehow grow up after becoming president. That group will abandon him at some point.

Now remember that Pence and Preibus are not Trump insiders, they represent the GOP establishment in his inner circle. He's clearly in over his head and utterly unprepared, so there is no way this is all his plan. I think they've designed it this way on purpose for these reasons:

1. It strokes his ego. He can lay out all his stupid big plans and get photo ops and feel like he's lord of the castle. His base fawns over their great leader actually making American great again, placating them. He stays busy and distracted so he doesn't drop nukes on Alec Baldwin or something. Without Obama and Clinton to rile them up his base slowly loses interest.

2. Distraction. Without knowing exactly how executive orders work, I assume half of this stuff is basically meaningless and won't actually come into effect. I doubt he can allocate funds to the border wall for instance without congressional approval. We're left to wring our hands over each ridiculous lie and affront to basic human dignity while the GOP establishment quietly implements their tea party dream agenda.

3. I think a lot of people were willing to give him a chance but it became clear very soon after he became PEOTUS that he wasn't going to change and the GOP couldn't control him. He is too much of a wild card and if he goes down, many in the GOP could go with him in the midterms if they don't play it right. Most of these Trump policies were heavily criticized by the GOP establishment during his primary run but they are conspicuously quiet now outside of a few. He is easily the most unpopular incoming president ever and his opposition is growing. Getting all of this out there right away hardens his detractors. The lies and outlandish statements will build up, the moderates will leave him, and soon all that will be left is the 20%. And even some of them will leave cause wtf they haven't gotten that 6 figure job yet and black people can still vote. Then the tax returns, apprentice tapes or Russian pee tapes come out and he's cooked. Pence is in and the GOP come out relatively unscathed cause hey they never wanted him in the first place. Pence is vanilla and controllable and America goes back to celebrities and fast food.

And somehow I'm actually hoping for all this to be true. What a time to be alive.

I think your point #2 is pretty much bang-on. GOP doesn't care because they don't need him for anything, so let him play in the sandbox while they do what they want.

Originally Posted by New Era

I believe the Republicans will use Trump as a pawn to get all their aggressive right wing agenda implemented, I'm talking the crazy #### that no one would even think was possible, and then set up President Comacho for the fall, knowing Pence is, as you said, controllable. The Republicans will have the majority of their agenda instituted and be able to blame Trump. They can then come in, kill some of the ridiculous stuff, and come out looking like conquering heroes in time for the mid terms.

As above, I just think they will ignore Trump as much as possible, because his rants are good distractions from what they're up to. Why should they remove Trump when he doesn't matter to them? In fact, he is a good distraction so it might be worthwhile to keep him in there so keep the crazies happy and the militant left busy.

[DuffMan]

hilarious

That speech was a home run. That speech, if you look at Fox, OK, I'll mention you -- we see what Fox said. They said it was one of the great speeches. They showed the people applauding and screaming and -- and they were all CIA. There was -- somebody was asking Sean -- "Well, were they Trump people that were put--" we don't have Trump people. They were CIA people.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: People loved it. They loved it. They gave me a standing ovation for a long period of time. They never even sat down, most of them, during the speech. There was love in the room. You and other networks covered it very inaccurately. I hate to say this to you and you probably won't put it on but turn on Fox and see how it was covered. And see how people respond to that speech.

[station]

Originally Posted by REDVAN

As above, I just think they will ignore Trump as much as possible, because his rants are good distractions from what they're up to. Why should they remove Trump when he doesn't matter to them? In fact, he is a good distraction so it might be worthwhile to keep him in there so keep the crazies happy and the militant left busy.

As others have mentioned it's all about the midterm primaries. There will for sure be GOP primary challengers for house and senate seats running an anti-Trump / impeachment campaign. If his poll numbers are sub 20 and/or any of these tapes come out it would be career suicide for sitting GOP members to stick with him. Ultimately the Republicans may hold the majority either way but a lot of seats could turn over with an impeachment mandate. So definitely, they'll let him soak up the media attention for as long as possible but at some point they'll have to look at removing him.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'm sure "only the best people" will be filling these rather important roles.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s job running the State Department just got considerably more difficult. The entire senior level of management officials resigned Wednesday, part of an ongoing mass exodus of senior foreign service officers who don’t want to stick around for the Trump era.

Tillerson was actually inside the State Department’s headquarters in Foggy Bottom on Wednesday, taking meetings and getting the lay of the land. I reported Wednesday morning that the Trump team was narrowing its search for his No. 2, and that it was looking to replace the State Department’s long-serving undersecretary for management, Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy, who has been in that job for nine years, was actively involved in the transition and was angling to keep that job under Tillerson, three State Department officials told me.

Then suddenly on Wednesday afternoon, Kennedy and three of his top officials resigned unexpectedly, four State Department officials confirmed. Assistant Secretary of State for Administration Joyce Anne Barr, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs Michele Bond and Ambassador Gentry O. Smith, director of the Office of Foreign Missions, followed him out the door. All are career foreign service officers who have served under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

In addition, Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security Gregory Starr retired Jan. 20, and the director of the Bureau of Overseas Building Operations, Lydia Muniz, departed the same day. That amounts to a near-complete housecleaning of all the senior officials that deal with managing the State Department, its overseas posts and its people.

“It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate,” said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. “Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.4c59a63fc329

[troutman]

Trump officials suspend plan to delete EPA climate web pages

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/...imate-web-page

[llwhiteoutll]

Originally Posted by station

2. Distraction. Without knowing exactly how executive orders work, I assume half of this stuff is basically meaningless and won't actually come into effect. I doubt he can allocate funds to the border wall for instance without congressional approval. We're left to wring our hands over each ridiculous lie and affront to basic human dignity while the GOP establishment quietly implements their tea party dream agenda.

Depends which ones. His EO for the suspension of visas from certain countries will pretty much be guaranteed to stand up, if it's even challenged at all. He can probably start building a wall with existing money that is existing in the budget and the legality is covered in the 2006 law that allowed the building of 700 miles of fencing.

Increasing ICE/DHS personnel will certainly require congressional approval for the additional funding. Changing their internal policies to expedite deportation isn't that hard to do. And stripping funding from "sanctuary cities" will be challenged in court.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

hilarious

That speech was a home run. That speech, if you look at Fox, OK, I'll mention you -- we see what Fox said. They said it was one of the great speeches. They showed the people applauding and screaming and -- and they were all CIA. There was -- somebody was asking Sean -- "Well, were they Trump people that were put--" we don't have Trump people. They were CIA people.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: People loved it. They loved it. They gave me a standing ovation for a long period of time. They never even sat down, most of them, during the speech. There was love in the room. You and other networks covered it very inaccurately. I hate to say this to you and you probably won't put it on but turn on Fox and see how it was covered. And see how people respond to that speech.

Maybe I've seen too many movies, but I don't get the impression that people that work at the CIA are the "screaming" and "wouldn't sit down" kind of audience.

He makes this sound like he's The Beatles, and the CIA is the crowd at the Ed Sullivan Show.

In other words, he's just flat-out lying. Surprise surprise.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I'm sure "only the best people" will be filling these rather important roles.

I was wondering if this sort of thing may happen, and it makes me happy current people are quitting. Kind of a protest thing.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

I was wondering if this sort of thing may happen, and it makes me happy current people are quitting. Kind of a protest thing.

This is a double edged sword, yay for protest but boo for the fact that now he will put in whatever yes men he wants. Big picture this is not a good thing. Hamstringing any department can't be good regardless of intent.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

This is a double edged sword, yay for protest but boo for the fact that now he will put in whatever yes men he wants. Big picture this is not a good thing. Hamstringing any department can't be good regardless of intent.

Yes, I've thought of that, also what will happen the next time the Dems take over.
But I think this is worth it, and they've obviously thought about it, I don't think it is a knee jerk reaction to the Republicans in general. It is a protest at Trump in particular.
He will be putting in yes men anyways.

[Itse]

On getting Mexico to pay for that wall, it's not that impossible.

Private money transfers from US to Mexico are in the ballpark of 20+ billion annually. Since a lot of that money is earned without a work permit, that gives the US government a good excuse to start disturbing those money transfers and maybe even seizing some of that money.

Those money transfers are a huge deal to the economy of Mexico. Make a credible threat to that flow of cash, and the Mexican government very likely gives in.

Or maybe just put a special tax on those transfers.

[Itse]

On top of all the incredible sh** Trump has already done, this tops my personal list at least in the category of "literally Nazi moves".

This is some seriously disturbing hate mongering.

https://qz.com/894973/donald-trumps-...by-immigrants/

Further the president said that the Secretary of Homeland Security will be publishing a weekly list of crimes committed by immigrants, and of the cities that refused to turn them in for deportation. The order doesn’t say whether the list would single out only undocumented immigrants, or all immigrants.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Itse

Btw, on getting Mexico to pay for that wall, it's not that impossible.

Private money transfers from US to Mexico are in the ballpark of 20+ billion annually. Since a lot of that money is earned without a work permit, that gives the US government a good excuse to start disturbing those money transfers and maybe even seizing some of that money.

Those money transfers are a huge deal to the economy of Mexico. Make a credible threat to that flow of cash, and the Mexican government very likely gives in.

Or maybe just put a special tax on those transfers.

I don't know, seems like if the US tries to do too much with those money transfers, they will just turn to the black market for those money transfers.

And who is setup perfectly to help money come into mexico via the black market? The drug cartels.

[ResAlien]

Regarding el wall Donnie told Mexico's president that if they wouldn't pay for it they'd be better off cancelling their meeting next week.

Today Mexico's president publically cancelled their meeting for next week.

[CaptainCrunch]

If I was mexico, I'd tell trump that we'll totally pay for the wall as long as we can design and build it using Mexican labor.

Then I'd build it about 6 inches tall and make money by making hilarious video's of people doing godzilla actions on it.

I mean they didn't say what kind of wall.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

I don't know, seems like if the US tries to do too much with those money transfers, they will just turn to the black market for those money transfers.

Possible yes, but not logistically trivial, and that would just give the US government an even better reason to start seizing those funds. The black market would also be likely to take a huge cut out of those funds, meaning that in any case the cash flow to Mexico would slow down significantly.

From the point of view of the Mexican government, probably better to pay for the wall.

And who is setup perfectly to help money come into mexico via the black market? The drug cartels.

True, but again for the Mexican government it would be better to pay for that wall than to let this happen.

All Trump needs is a big enough threat to make it easier for Mexico to pay for the wall. This is big enough, and not likely to hurt the US economy in a way that Trump would care about.

[DuffMan]

Heck Trump should just get DHS or INS to paint white stars on windows and doors of possible illegals places of residence, to get the ball rolling.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by REDVAN

As above, I just think they will ignore Trump as much as possible, because his rants are good distractions from what they're up to. Why should they remove Trump when he doesn't matter to them? In fact, he is a good distraction so it might be worthwhile to keep him in there so keep the crazies happy and the militant left busy.

Republicans are tied to Trump right now. The more crazy stupid stuff he does the more people, including Republican voters, will abandon their team. Come mid terms, the Republicans will be in a lot of trouble. To save their seats and majorities in congress they will have to distance themselves from Trump. For some that may not be enough. They will have to have Trump be the bad guy and them be the conquering hero, slaying the dragon so to speak. Otherwise, they could be looking at big losses.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

Heck Trump should just get DHS or INS to paint white stars on windows and doors of possible illegals places of residence, to get the ball rolling.

Stars?

Wouldn't they just paint exagerated handlebar mustaches and sombreros?

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I think I finally understand this line of thinking. It's more comforting and it helps you feel more at ease thinking that Trump is actually involved in some plan here, that he has something up his sleeve. Because I can see how frightening it would be to think he's as demented, insane and megalomaniacal as it appears, because that means he can destroy all of humanity at anytime, if he's triggered the wrong way. So it's best to think it's all a plot, rather than what it obviously appears to be. Misdirecting your own mind basically, convincing yourself that what you see and hear isn't actually real, rather it's an intricate plot.

Well your previous line of thinking was the same thinking that the Republican Party, Republican Presidential Candidates, the media, the Democratic Party, and Hillary Clinton's campaign team thought and followed.

And saw Trump not only go away, but instead becoming President.

He has a strategy of doing things to dominate the media cycle. It's all about him. It's taking the front few pages of news away from detailed analysis of his plan, transition team, or whatever is a risk for critique at a given moment. And he's signing orders on items that he campaigned on, building a narrative he'll point to throughout his presidency.

So go ahead and call it dumb luck, dismiss all his voters as uneducated hicks, and 36 months from now you'll still be waiting for it to fall apart.

(And I say this as a person who was on the record as saying I would have voted Clinton)