Carolina Hurricanes - Why their PK is so successful

[wooohooo]

https://the1stpass.wordpress.com/201...-is-effective/

16 games into the season, they PK has a success rate of 91%, 5% higher than the team in 5th place. Carolina has taken 110 minutes worth of penalties this season, making them the 2nd least penalized team in the NHL (Rangers with 104).

When the Hurricanes are shorthanded, Bill Peters employs a high pressure system

Carolina’s PK works off of a high pressure system that requires anticipation and ability to read the play. The pressure comes fast, as the PK unit is often in 1 quadrant of the zone (where the puck is). Not only that, the support system within the zone and the paths taken by the unit, allow for mistakes to be covered. A loose puck in either corner will see 2 players within 8 feet of the puck, the other 2 within the quadrant, should puck come free.

The link also comes with more description of how their system is executed. Thought it was an interesting read.

[CroFlames]

Murray Edwards should mail a blank signed check to that man with a note saying "Welcome to Calgary".

[Geeoff]

I noticed when we played them that they play really good team defense. Also, their blueline is really good, despite being young. Justin Faulk is a stud.

[GioforPM]

The pressure comes fast, as the PK unit is often in 1 quadrant of the zone (where the puck is). Not only that, the support system within the zone and the paths taken by the unit, allow for mistakes to be covered. A loose puck in either corner will see 2 players within 8 feet of the puck, the other 2 within the quadrant, should puck come free.

Sounds a little swarmy.

[TheScorpion]

Their cap manager has done a great job at putting together that team.

[smiggy77]

I would love to see an analysis of the leagues top PP. I'll print a copy and go drop it off in Cameron's mailbox.

[GioforPM]

I imagine most different systems can work. You just need to use the one that's suited for your players, and they actually have to work their butts off to put it into effect. The Flames PK has actually looked quite good at times, then, even in the same game, it doesn't. The only explanation is that they didn't perform the system well.

That said, I much prefer pressure systems, which work when you have quick skaters with good hands like Backlund and Frolik. Probably not as good for guys like Stajan who plays a more positional defensive game.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

The Hurricanes' penalty kill is "so effective" because their team save percentage while shorthanded is .939. That's ridiculous and it's an early season outlier that won't last - median shorthanded sv% is .886. It's not even a reflection of goaltending quality; they're 24th in the league at even strength with a .901 sv%. The Canes also allow shots against at a league average rate, 17th overall. It's a mediocre power play that's gotten the bounces so far.

Just another example of hockey writers searching for an explanation to a statistical anomaly.

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The Hurricanes' penalty kill is "so effective" because their team save percentage while shorthanded is .939. That's ridiculous and it's an early season outlier that won't last - median shorthanded sv% is .886. It's not even a reflection of goaltending quality; they're 24th in the league at even strength with a .901 sv%. The Canes also allow shots against at a league average rate, 17th overall. It's a mediocre power play that's gotten the bounces so far.

Just another example of hockey writers searching for an explanation to a statistical anomaly.

Ugh, advanced stats need to die in a fire. Isn't it also possible that the high shorthanded sv% is a product of the system, in that they only let the team on the PP have low percentage, perimeter shots?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

First, even if that were true, a .939 save percentage would be unsustainable. That's a ridiculous save percentage, even at even strength. Shorthanded, it's unheard of. The league-best percentages in the past 3 years have been .911, .919 and .909, and all of those were behind very good teams. "Statistical anomaly" is easily the best explanation here, and there are still many of them - for example, the team with the best even strength save percentage in the NHL is Chicago, but they somehow have the league-worst PK save percentage at .779. That just doesn't make any damned sense.

Second, I'll see if I can't dig up the shot location data for their PK, but it's pretty unlikely... that's always the standard answer ever since the Lockout Leafs. It never turns out to actually be true.

Third, save percentage isn't an "advanced stat". It's a regular stat used by literally everyone. This is just common sense.

[Imported_Aussie]

To the debate from the posts above - I think sample size is too small to tell if this is a statistical anomaly that will regress back, or more of a product of the system. even if there is some regression closer to the norm, they are so far above the norm with that save % that there must be some other factors besides "luck" at play

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

To the debate from the posts above - I think sample size is too small to tell if this is a statistical anomaly that will regress back, or more of a product of the system. even if there is some regression closer to the norm, they are so far above the norm with that save % that there must be some other factors besides "luck" at play

If it's a product of the system, then at even strength they should be playing 5v4 in the defensive zone, and a cherrypicker at center ice.

0.939 is pretty high even for even strength play.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^More than pretty high; it would have been the best 5v5 save percentage in the entire league last year.

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

even if there is some regression closer to the norm, they are so far above the norm with that save % that there must be some other factors besides "luck" at play

It's possible, but it's also possible that it really is just an anomaly. Take another example; the Columbus Blue Jackets are 32% on the power play so far this year. That would be a new record, and would be about seven percentage points clear of any team we've seen in the past decade (more, if you don't count "teams that have Alex Ovechkin on them").

Do you think that's likely to come screaming back down to Earth as the season wears on, or do you think they're really that much better on the PP than all of those teams? Think about who they've got on the power play, what seems more likely?

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Their cap manager has done a great job at putting together that team.

'Moneyball' NHL Edition? Moneypuck! Do it man! Screw writing, this could be your calling. Only half kidding.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

First, even if that were true, a .939 save percentage would be unsustainable. That's a ridiculous save percentage, even at even strength. Shorthanded, it's unheard of. The league-best percentages in the past 3 years have been .911, .919 and .909, and all of those were behind very good teams. "Statistical anomaly" is easily the best explanation here, and there are still many of them - for example, the team with the best even strength save percentage in the NHL is Chicago, but they somehow have the league-worst PK save percentage at .779. That just doesn't make any damned sense.

Second, I'll see if I can't dig up the shot location data for their PK, but it's pretty unlikely... that's always the standard answer ever since the Lockout Leafs. It never turns out to actually be true.

Third, save percentage isn't an "advanced stat". It's a regular stat used by literally everyone. This is just common sense.

Could they also allow less shots? Or maybe the pressure is causing more point shots than shots in the slot or down low plays

Not saying its the case here but saying it is solely a statistical anomaly (not that I am saying you are just in general) is just as lazy as the writer in this case saying its all due to system

We can't blindly trust these stats without scouting it as well

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Could they also allow less shots? Or maybe the pressure is causing more point shots than shots in the slot or down low plays

As I said, they allow shots at a slightly worse than league average rate, so that's not it. The goalie is just stopping more of them. Unfortunately war on ice is gone so I can't tell you where the shots are coming from, but I can tell you that historically, when people raise that possibility, it turns out not to be the case. You can suppress total shots against - that is, strategy or talent can lead to the opposition getting relatively few pucks on your net - but of those shots that do get through, a certain percentage of them will consistently be from high quality locations, and the range of what percentage are from those locations doesn't vary all that much. That's the best I can do on that point.

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Not saying its the case here but saying it is solely a statistical anomaly (not that I am saying you are just in general) is just as lazy as the writer in this case saying its all due to system

Yeah I'm not saying it's solely an anomaly - they might be an average team getting a huge dose of luck (which isn't uncommon at this point in the season; that's my explanation for the Blue Jackets' PP and on the flip side, the Blackhawks' PK). They might be an above average team getting a good run of luck. Or they might be easily the best PK team in the last decade. That last one seems like the least likely of the three.

My problem is hockey writers looking for outliers, and then trying to come up with a good story about why the outlier exists. The linked article actually contains some useful insights into how the penalty kill is run which would be cool to read without the dubious claims that we're watching some revolutionary new strategy that's going to change the way teams kill penalties. Not even acknowledging that the main driver of the PK% is an insane save percentage is doing a huge disservice to the reader.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

Or maybe the pressure is causing more point shots than shots in the slot or down low plays

Just wanted to bump this because Burtch pointed out to me that Corsica does host heat maps for shot locations. Here's Carolina's PK shots heat map for this year, which disproves the theory about keeping shots to the outside.