Will we make the playoffs

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

No they will not.

Agreed

[FlamesFan68]

Our goose is cooked. I see no compete from a certain few. I see a lack of discipline and skill from others. Bennett was rushed. Gio having a down year. I always said goalies were the scapegoat for an atrocious defense, Ramo I feel should be a #1 goalie. Hiller and Ortio could not survive the onslaught of shots and chances given up, they proved themselves not #1 caliber. My worst suspicion is players will play hard in the last month of the season to save jobs so we can get a mediocre pick at the draft, again and again.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Nope. Season is over before Remembrance Day. New low in Flames history. Even the Young Guns weren't this bad and they didn't have near the talent. The lineup looks good on paper, but something is sorely missing. Treliving has one more chance to right this ship or he'll have to fall on his sword.

[Barnet Flame]

Every time I think about the playoffs a little part of me dies.

[Poe969]

It seems like this team doesn't care about making the playoffs, why should we?

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by Barnet Flame

Every time I think about the playoffs a little part of me dies.

Which little part is that?

[bubbsy]

Wow. Flames are 28th in overall standings, and the flames have played 2 more games than the 2 teams below them.

That actually makes them 30th in point %.

Playoffs are likely out of the question. Now the question is if the flames should go full on rebuild and dump ant thing of value outside the youth

[Poe969]

Yes they should. If teams have interest in anyone or a deal can be made to help the future, do it. This team embodies the dreaded "losing culture" right now, just try to get as many assets as possible at this point.

[expatflame]

It would take a massive change for this team to make the playoffs at this point. It's funny because on paper, this team looks so good.

[browntrout]

this team for the last 5 years always gets off to a poor start...it reflects being poorly prepared and it now is almost a habit at this point. Either the coach, the GM or the players need to be held accountable or these slow starts are not going to go away

[ricardodw]

What do advanced stats say?

The Flames are getting as many SOG as they are giving up.... As this rather than actual goals scored SOG is the underlying basis for Advanced stats the Flames are living up to expectations,


It should simply be a matter of results catching up to advanced stats, shouldn't it?

The worst team in advance stats is the #1 team in the league is Montreal.... they are getting out-shot by 6 shots every game

The #2 team Chicago is getting out-shot by 3 shots / game

[Mr.Coffee]

Nm

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

What do advanced stats say?

The Flames are getting as many SOG as they are giving up.... As this rather than actual goals scored SOG is the underlying basis for Advanced stats the Flames are living up to expectations,


It should simply be a matter of results catching up to advanced stats, shouldn't it?

The worst team in advance stats is the #1 team in the league is Montreal.... they are getting out-shot by 6 shots every game

The #2 team Chicago is getting out-shot by 3 shots / game

That's not advanced stats. You do not know what you are talking about

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

That's not advanced stats. You do not know what you are talking about

I was going to say that too but wasn't totally sure. But I didn't think shots counted as advanced stats.

Aren't advanced stats things like corsi & PDO?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I was going to say that too but wasn't totally sure. But I didn't think shots counted as advanced stats.

Aren't advanced stats things like corsi & PDO?

Corsi is based on the differential in shot attempts (not just SOG but also missed and blocked shots), for vs against

It is not as simple as ricardo mentioned, but the spirit of what he is implying is not far off.

Increasing the number of low quality shot attempts, could increase Corsi but not have a meaningful impact on goals scored, which is something that actually helps win games.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Corsi is based on the differential in shot attempts (not just SOG but also missed and blocked shots), for vs against

It is not as simple as ricardo mentioned, but the spirit of what he is implying is not far off.

Increasing the number of low quality shot attempts, could increase Corsi but not have a meaningful impact on goals scored, which is something that actually helps win games.

Advanced stats are even worse than just SOG.... an actual SOG is the gold standard for Corsi and advanced stats!!


Blocked shots and shots that miss the net are positives for advanced stats when you make them and negative when you force the other team do them.

Standing up at the Blue line and making the other team dump it close to the net is a bad thing in advanced stats world.

Testing out the other teams goalie with a shot from outside the blue line is a positive in advanced stats.... better than dumping it in the corner.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Corsi is based on the differential in shot attempts (not just SOG but also missed and blocked shots), for vs against

It is not as simple as ricardo mentioned, but the spirit of what he is implying is not far off.

Increasing the number of low quality shot attempts, could increase Corsi but not have a meaningful impact on goals scored, which is something that actually helps win games.

The idea is not to make it simple.... If folks understood how rudimentary advanced stats are they would understand that for hockey they should not be taken seriously... There is no magic significant correlation between a positive corsi % and team success.

After 15 games the Flames are middle of the pack Corsi team and dead last as a winning team.

Montreal is the worst corsi team in the league so far and early favorites for the presidents trophy.

[Locke]

No? Has anyone said 'No?'

Because I'm going with 'No.'

I said it before, GAA, PP and PK percentages have to be middle to top-third of the pack for there to be any hope.

So: No.

There are obviously still games left to get those numbers to where they need to be, but there is no trending incline to allow us to believe that its going to happen and with every passing game where those numbers consistently decline it requires a statistically significant increase to the point where it surpasses probability.

Now, could a miracle happen? Sure.

But if thats a miracle rather than a trend to the norm then we either win it all or we're right back here. In hell.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The idea is not to make it simple.... If folks understood how rudimentary advanced stats are they would understand that for hockey they should not be taken seriously... There is no magic significant correlation between a positive corsi % and team success.

After 15 games the Flames are middle of the pack Corsi team and dead last as a winning team.

Montreal is the worst corsi team in the league so far and early favorites for the presidents trophy.

1. Montreal is not the worst team by any advanced stat measure. You also do well (especially early in the season as sample size is small) to adjust by score. Teams trailing usually turn up the shot attempts. If you're willing a lot, it'll impact your numbers.
2. There is a "magic correlation" between corsi and winning. That is fact. You can say it's not, but there's
3. Corsi is not all that matters. Literally nobody thinks otherwise. If you have a goaltender with a .965 sv% that covers up a lot wouldn't you say?

[BurningSteel]

Yes we play lights out after xmas break. Sneak in by 1 pt. Book it.