Alberta Politics Thread

[troutman]

nm

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

Here is where you show the true colors of someone who doesn't care. What you just posted flies in the face of everything you argue for. 10% of the province is unemployed and they aren't all oil & gas.

I don't know how you keep getting free meals, but hook a brother up. You could be costing a business serious coin if you don't share the wealth here.

As a bonus point, I've lived in Calgary for my entire life of 32 years.

Yes 10% are currently unemployed, so do you think they will benefit more in the long run by restructuring our economy in a way that doesn't have the same flaws and reliances on oil or by trying more of the same which could land them back in their current position down the road? No not everyone unemployed is in the oil and gas industry, with the way our economy has been structured almost every industry is affected by the decline of the oil and gas industry.

Your second paragraph seems to make no sense at all, if you need a meal I occasionally volunteer at the mustard seed so I guess I can help you out with that if you need.

Tell me this, if you've lived in Calgary as long as I have, and are the same age as I am how is that at all relevant to anything? And if the numbers are more or less? Do you even have point that you are trying to make here?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Dion

Eating out has certainly not become cheaper. I'd love to know more about these so called eating establishments that have slashed their menu prices. I could sure use a break!

There are numerous restaurants that have cut prices or created specials to bring in customers. There is one restaurant(can't recall the name) that even advertises a wine special where the price stays low until the price of oil goes above a certain level. Lots of places have started offering kids eat free or buy one get one deals. Drove by Austen's pub in canyon meadows the other day and they actually have a sign that says "recession busting specials"

[CaptainCrunch]

[QUOTE=iggy_oi;5988928]Those people's jobs and livelihood were at stake before the NDP even got into office, having our entire economy supported by an industry that lives and dies by a commodities world market price which is set by people we have zero influence over was always playing with fire.[quote]

You know that's how modern economics works, for all of the talk of diversification, every region will always have a primary industry that they depend on. You could argue that Ontario that relies heavily on manufacturing is in serious trouble as nations like China and India keep their pay down to undercut in the major manufacturing center.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

People were leaving before the minimum wage or carbon tax were even on the table. This is a fact.

Please prove this because up until the threat of carbon tax, minimum wage increase, the increase in business tax rates, property taxes and personal taxes, has caused a shrink on stagnation of Calgary's population from the ages of 20 to 30 according to the Calgary Economic Development corporation, the growth for 30 year olds to 50 year olds is not significant at all.According to their population growth estimates, that shrinkage of prime working age people will continue to shrink until 2020.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

We are currently suffering from the backlash of having a ridiculously unregulated economic structure for decades. The unemployed aren't the ones who are going to get the economy going again, the employed are by growing business with their consumer dollars.

And in an economic downturn like this where there is significant uncertainty and lack of trust in the government policies in creating a positive econmy they're more then likely going to sit on their wallets and not spend foolishly.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

What has gotten cheaper in the last few years? Rent, eating out, tradeswork, hotels, even the stampede was letting people in for free. Not sure why you needed me to cite examples on that unless you don't live here.

Where are you seeing rent shrinking, and do you really think that as property rates have increased and a carbon tax has come in that landlords are going to cut their rent? Not likely. The only benefit of this idiotic government is that the rent bubble has burst as people have stopped coming here to work so rents have temporarily stagnated, but again as utilities increase rents will increase. I Hotel rates decreasing goes towards the fact that people aren't coming here, that's not a positive thing. Eating out, I haven't seen costs come down, and again when the carbon tax comes into play and effects logistics, and utilities and you add in the bump in minimum wage to hospitality workers those costs are going to go up.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

As for how these changes can possibly produce positive net results:
My view is that many here may likely be right in the short term, smaller businesses that rely on a cheap labour cost will probably struggle, some jobs could be lost, if that did happen hypothetically it would be logical to assume things like rent would go down in price since the demand would be down. Unless people decide to stop wanting to try and make money, new businesses would come in to replace those that folded, and if those businesses are better able to thrive in this new environment their employees will have more spending money to contribute to growing the economy. There appears to be an irrational fear among many that if one business can't survive in a $15 minimum wage and carbon tax economy no other business will figure out a way to do it.

If you have businesses in the spectrum that go under of collapse, new companies aren't going to flood in to take their place, that makes no sense whatsoever, that sector will shrink because of the uncertainty of the business environment. Nobody goes into business out of the goodness of their hearts, they come in to be successful. So if the small restaurant sector shows a lot of failure there won't be new restaurants jumping into the breech to open. Go look at downtown Calgary and there aren't a lot of new ones popping in to replace the failed ones.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Bonus thing that could help:
Maybe those who are better off than most right now try to reduce the impact of the carbon tax by making energy efficient changes to their home or car, which would also help the economy in the short term, while saving them money in the long term. Any of the carbon tax's other possible benefit will be defined by what they actually do with the money from it.

That's nice, but as its pointed out, car sales are down, people aren't going to spend 15,000 for a new furnace and upgrade their houses to save $20.00 a month, that makes no sense whatsoever. Even talking to guys in furnace, hvac, home reno's people aren't spending money right now, they're going to sit on their cash in case the bottom falls out on this economy completely.

[Wiggum_PI]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

http://www.avenuecalgary.com/Restaur...ws-CityMarket/

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/busines...2018-1.2924475

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/mobile/mec...gary-1.2992938

http://www.ikea.com/ca/en/about_ikea...xpansion_plan#

Other than that I would suggest opening your eyes will provide you with more proof

So all these large corporations that are supposedly taking advantage of their employees and not paying them fair wages, are the ones investing capital and helping boost the Alberta economy?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

You didn't prove it. Show me facts. Show me real numbers. Show me how those numbers compare to previous years. Prove to me that gas station, grocery store and restaurant openings are not showing a decline.

As you seem uncertain on the concept, let me help you. These are numbers. These are facts.

Housing Statistics
Sales are down.

New motor vehicle sales, by province (monthly)
Sales are down.

2016 Civic Census Results
More people are leaving the city than moving to it. The only reason the population increased at all was due to births. Vacancies are up dramatically.

Otherwise, I will have to conclude that the source of your claims is just like all your other claims. Pulled out of your ass.

Lol you specifically quote a line from my statement that businesses are still investing and expanding here, then demand I prove my claim, so I provide you references and now you're attacking me because I didn't answer a question you didn't even ask. Now you demand numbers proving things aren't on the decline overall, that was never even my claim to begin with. Of course things are slower right now, we're kinda in a recession. My original point was that while everyone is pleading that the raise in minimum wage will destroy the economy and drive business away, there are a lot of companies still investing here. Because a lot of these companies are money making machines I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that they realize based on their experience that this will not have as devestatingly bad of an effect as many here suggest, otherwise why would they invest here?

That's being pulled out of where?

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Lol you specifically quote a line from my statement that businesses are still investing and expanding here, then demand I prove my claim, so I provide you references and now you're attacking me because I didn't answer a question you didn't even ask. Now you demand numbers proving things aren't on the decline overall, that was never even my claim to begin with. Of course things are slower right now, we're kinda in a recession. My original point was that while everyone is pleading that the raise in minimum wage will destroy the economy and drive business away, there are a lot of companies still investing here. Because a lot of these companies are money making machines I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that they realize based on their experience that this will not have as devestatingly bad of an effect as many here suggest, otherwise why would they invest here?

You gave me literally four examples of a business opening. Four. A Loblaws, a Saks 5th Avenue, and 2 MECs. Except the Loblaws announcement is from last January which means plans and construction began before the downturn. And the Saks and MECs are just announcements of plans to open stores, not actual openings, not even construction. That is not proof of anything, it certainly isn't proof of "a lot of companies still investing here".

I gave you examples of what real tangible proof backed up by numbers looks like. You failed to deliver anything similar. Why? Because you simply make things up to support your inane claims.

That's being pulled out of where?

You ass. Get your head out of it and try to keep up.

[iggy_oi]

[QUOTE=CaptainCrunch;5989580][QUOTE=iggy_oi;5988928]Those people's jobs and livelihood were at stake before the NDP even got into office, having our entire economy supported by an industry that lives and dies by a commodities world market price which is set by people we have zero influence over was always playing with fire.

You know that's how modern economics works, for all of the talk of diversification, every region will always have a primary industry that they depend on. You could argue that Ontario that relies heavily on manufacturing is in serious trouble as nations like China and India keep their pay down to undercut in the major manufacturing center.



Please prove this because up until the threat of carbon tax, minimum wage increase, the increase in business tax rates, property taxes and personal taxes, has caused a shrink on stagnation of Calgary's population from the ages of 20 to 30 according to the Calgary Economic Development corporation, the growth for 30 year olds to 50 year olds is not significant at all.According to their population growth estimates, that shrinkage of prime working age people will continue to shrink until 2020.

Yes oil has been our economic backbone, and yes you could argue Ontario is
in trouble due to the reasons you've stated, so if both situations appear to be unreliable for long term stability does is not make sense to look for alternatives?

As for your proof that people's livelihood was in jeopardy and the exodus had begun before the NDP took office, take a look at the unemployment stats:

http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/Unemployment

While it doesn't show the numbers of people coming and going, which I'm sure you know enough about census stats to agree it would be tough to get very accurate numbers on inter provincial transient workers, you can clearly see that the unemployment rate began rising around the end of 2014, well before the NDP took office. I thing you'll also agree that in Alberta a rise in unemployment usually leads to people leaving.

Where are you seeing rent shrinking, and do you really think that as property rates have increased and a carbon tax has come in that landlords are going to cut their rent? Not likely. The only benefit of this idiotic government is that the rent bubble has burst as people have stopped coming here to work so rents have temporarily stagnated, but again as utilities increase rents will increase. I Hotel rates decreasing goes towards the fact that people aren't coming here, that's not a positive thing. Eating out, I haven't seen costs come down, and again when the carbon tax comes into play and effects logistics, and utilities and you add in the bump in minimum wage to hospitality workers those costs are going to go up.

Have you looked at rental prices these days? Most places are offering 1-2 months free rent as incentive to sign a 1 year lease. Landlords won't have much choice with vacancy rates being what they are right now. If you can't rent out your place at $800, good luck renting it out at $900.

If you have businesses in the spectrum that go under of collapse, new companies aren't going to flood in to take their place, that makes no sense whatsoever, that sector will shrink because of the uncertainty of the business environment. Nobody goes into business out of the goodness of their hearts, they come in to be successful. So if the small restaurant sector shows a lot of failure there won't be new restaurants jumping into the breech to open. Go look at downtown Calgary and there aren't a lot of new ones popping in to replace the failed ones.

They don't necessarily need to be in the same industry, but there are still examples of businesses thriving in a market where another business in the same infantry failed before.

That's nice, but as its pointed out, car sales are down, people aren't going to spend 15,000 for a new furnace and upgrade their houses to save $20.00 a month, that makes no sense whatsoever. Even talking to guys in furnace, hvac, home reno's people aren't spending money right now, they're going to sit on their cash in case the bottom falls out on this economy completely.

Sales are down sure, but I did say those who are better off, in other words not hurting from the downturn, so if they were planning to invest in that furnace but never got around to it and there will now be some benefit in doing it, they might just do it. I know a few people in construction who say they are pretty busy with Reno work because people are taking advantage of cheaper labour costs, but I'm sure that varies from company to company.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

You gave me literally four examples of a business opening. Four. A Loblaws, a Saks 5th Avenue, and 2 MECs. Except the Loblaws announcement is from last January which means plans and construction began before the downturn. And the Saks and MECs are just announcements of plans to open stores, not actual openings, not even construction. That is not proof of anything, it certainly isn't proof of "a lot of companies still investing here".

I gave you examples of what real tangible proof backed up by numbers looks like. You failed to deliver anything similar. Why? Because you simply make things up to support your inane claims.

You ass. Get your head out of it and try to keep up.

I just wanted to quote this because the typo at the end was comical.

The rest of your post is simply dismissive, there's a mcdonalds under construction in walden is that not really happening either?

[Dion]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

That's nice, but as its pointed out, car sales are down, people aren't going to spend 15,000 for a new furnace and upgrade their houses to save $20.00 a month, that makes no sense whatsoever. Even talking to guys in furnace, hvac, home reno's people aren't spending money right now, they're going to sit on their cash in case the bottom falls out on this economy completely.

My buddy at the local Ford dealership tells me people are holding onto their vehicles as opposed to trading them in for a newer vehicle. And with all the rig workers laid off they're not walking into the showroom looking for that new shiny truck. Not a good time to be a car salesperson

In the service end people stretching the service interval times in hopes of saving a few dollars. Others are holding on to what they have and spending what they can to keep the old beater on the road longer.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

There are numerous restaurants that have cut prices or created specials to bring in customers. There is one restaurant(can't recall the name) that even advertises a wine special where the price stays low until the price of oil goes above a certain level. Lots of places have started offering kids eat free or buy one get one deals. Drove by Austen's pub in canyon meadows the other day and they actually have a sign that says "recession busting specials"

I remember that restaurant. It was Escoba. Sadly, the have closed down now.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I just wanted to quote this because the typo at the end was comical.

The rest of your post is simply dismissive, there's a mcdonalds under construction in walden is that not really happening either?

Just because there are a few examples of new construction and there are job postings for some companies doesn't prove the health of the economy, it just proves there still is an economy.

People are questioning your credibility and understanding of the economy because your responses lack discussion of indicators to broadly measure economic activity, let alone properly participate in a discussion of how policy changes might impact said economy. All you have provided is anecdotal quotes, which might very well be true in their own right, do not properly measure or speak to the broader economy.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

The rest of your post is simply dismissive, there's a mcdonalds under construction in walden is that not really happening either?

Calgary is on pace to close over 7000 businesses this year, more than any recent non NDP year. Is that not really happening?

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-...ncreasing-pace

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

There are numerous restaurants that have cut prices or created specials to bring in customers. There is one restaurant(can't recall the name) that even advertises a wine special where the price stays low until the price of oil goes above a certain level. Lots of places have started offering kids eat free or buy one get one deals. Drove by Austen's pub in canyon meadows the other day and they actually have a sign that says "recession busting specials"

You do realize that these things happen because the restaurant is hurting and these are usually desperate attempts to improve the bottom line, right?

What is happening in your glorious example of the market "correcting" is that these eateries are eating higher operational costs while suffering reduced business. It does not take an economics major to realize that the end result of this will be either the closure of the restaurant or reduced hours for the staff. And that will mean less money going into the economy.

So, really. Thank you for showing a tangible demonstration of the negatives outweighing the positives.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Just because there are a few examples of new construction and there are job postings for some companies doesn't prove the health of the economy, it just proves there still is an economy.

People are questioning your credibility and understanding of the economy because your responses lack discussion of indicators to broadly measure economic activity, let alone properly participate in a discussion of how policy changes might impact said economy. All you have provided is anecdotal quotes, which might very well be true in their own right, do not properly measure or speak to the broader economy.

I'm not suggesting the economy is good shape at all, my point was that the claims people are making about the impending doom that will result from the raise in minimum wage, while possible, are not deterring all businesses which I feel is relevant to the discussion

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I remember that restaurant. It was Escoba. Sadly, the have closed down now.

Yeah, the owners tried to make it work, but with the property tax increase, business tax increase, increases in general costs in including corporate costs, so bad parking decisions, he gave up the ghost. But you can't accuse the ownership of not trying, they'd been in business for a long time, and they were willing to take loses in the hopes that times would turn around. But the light at the end of the tunnel was a freight train carrying bad economic news and upcoming cost increases in the next year which would have made their losses unsustainable.

toot toot toot toot

Smash.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I'm not suggesting the economy is good shape at all, my point was that the claims people are making about the impending doom that will result from the raise in minimum wage, while possible, are not deterring all businesses which I feel is relevant to the discussion

Saying 'there's still some Mcdonald's and other new restaurants going up' in response to the claims people are making is not saying anything meaningful and does not hold up as any evidence of anything regarding your position.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

There are numerous restaurants that have cut prices or created specials to bring in customers. There is one restaurant(can't recall the name) that even advertises a wine special where the price stays low until the price of oil goes above a certain level. Lots of places have started offering kids eat free or buy one get one deals. Drove by Austen's pub in canyon meadows the other day and they actually have a sign that says "recession busting specials"

Rush does this. Or I should say, did this, as they have gone under.

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Have you looked at rental prices these days? Most places are offering 1-2 months free rent as incentive to sign a 1 year lease. Landlords won't have much choice with vacancy rates being what they are right now. If you can't rent out your place at $800, good luck renting it out at $900.

Yes, it is generally good for the john everyman when rents go down. But you are missing the fact that the reason rents are going down typically has negatives that greatly outweigh the positives of cheap rent.

Rent is really cheap in some parts of Detroit, does that mean their standard of living is high, and it is a place people and businesses are flocking to?

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

The rest of your post is simply dismissive, there's a mcdonalds under construction in walden is that not really happening either?

So far, all I see as proof is that big business is expanding.

What about small business, that doesn't have the huge McDonald's Walmart infrastructure, supply chain, and bulk purchasing advantages? Do they not matter?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

What is happening in your glorious example of the market "correcting" is that these eateries are eating higher operational costs while suffering reduced business. It does not take an economics major to realize that the end result of this will be either the closure of the restaurant or reduced hours for the staff.

My mentally disabled brother has worked at a national chain restaurant for 20 years. Three days a week, four hours a day. He has seen managers come and go. They've always found work for him in the kitchen, through economic ups and downs.

When the minimum wage was increased in October his hours were cut to two days a week. When the minimum wage is hiked again next October, I expect his hours will be cut further, or he'll be laid off altogether.

This is what happens when you mandate all jobs should provide employees with a living wage - the lowest few rungs of the ladder get removed, and young workers and the vulnerable like my brother are no longer regarded as worth employing at all.