China's Millionaire Migration

[peter12]

UC Berkeley just released a paper about the ongoing Chinese anti-corruption program that is certainly precipitating a lot of capital flight from China. You can read the abstract below.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2835841

The paper challenges previous assumptions that the campaign was really just a purge against opponents of the current regime, and that it seems to indicate a sincere attempt by the regime to end systemic corruption.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

I think someone back a few posts that said it was just like London or New York..I had to laugh at that, but if its true then the Vancouver market should be able to withstand extra taxes, vacancy charges, rent controls, congestion charges, and all the other disincentives that those other places have.

As prices spread across New York's boroughs, gentrification soon followed, and a new class of young urban professionals sprung up, driving economic growth even higher.

So much of that has not happened in Vancouver. Previously low-cost neighbourhoods have just become mortgage traps for people less and less able to afford mortgage payments, and all the associated costs with raising a family.

There are no big paying jobs in this city, unless you work for a developer or have a neat little real estate scheme humming along.

Vancouver is also significantly larger in total geographic size than London or New York, and still prices have increased on pace.

Quality of life is high here for some. Move away from the desirable neighbourhoods along the beach front, and you are in a suburb same as anywhere else in Canada.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by peter12

I cannot stand the comparisons between Vancouver and London or Tokyo or Manhattan. All of the latter have salaries and industries commensurate with housing, and even places like London are now officially out of control.

You mean QA testers at EA Vancouver don't earn 220K?

[Fuzz]

What do people do for money there, anyway? I could never figure that out.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

What do people do for money there, anyway? I could never figure that out.

Outside of real estate, development, etc., the service and tourism industries are the big ones along with film and television.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

What do people do for money there, anyway? I could never figure that out.

I'm a lawyer in Vancouver, and housing is out of price for us. I know a few double lawyer couples who've bought small and run down places on the East side for 1.4 million or so. Even then, they typically get substantial help from their parents (like $250k+ in cash kind of help). They end up pretty cash strapped supporting the mortgage though and have to do renovations themselves and often regret the decision.

The whole system in Vancouver is messed up. Quite frankly if 2 working lawyers cannot afford a place in a run down area of town, something is wrong.

I also know lots of people who've just given up and moved to Kelowna or Victoria. That's becoming more the norm. Vancouver is a fun place to spend your 20s in, but you leave shortly after. There's basically very little in the way of functioning economy at this point as the cost of housing is too out of control.

It's a tough situation for any government to be in, as the current home owners have an interest in keeping prices high, but the effect has just been so devastating to the economy that everyone else is suffering.

[afc wimbledon]

Vancouver is the only place I know where if you don't live in the center of town it doesn't count as living in Vancouver.
If you move to London or New York do you expect to live in Manhatten or Kensington or Westminster with a view of the Houses of Parliment?

New Westminster and Surrey are all still part of Vancouver, as is Langley. It would help if there were a decent train service that ran up the valley all day and night granted but I doubt there's a more beautiful suburb in Canada than Maple Ridge or Mission and yet people here seem to think it's some kind of purgatory being inflicted on them that they have to live in a place that would be considered paradise by most in the world.

I really don't get it, I bought my first houses out in the valley, that paid for the down payment on my place in East Van, it's not the end of the world to bring your kids up in Poco then move into Vancouver later on if you want.

[Galakanokis]

I don't make lawyer money but between my wife and I we do ok. In just about any other city in Canada we would have a very nice home and live quite comfortably but here it is a pipe dream. A friend just spent $585,000 on a townhouse in Maple Ridge, it's nice but nothing fancy. Factor in an hour plus drive each way to work and the whole thing just seems crazy to me. I am lucky that my rent is low but it reflects in the place we have.

My cousin's wife's brother just got appointed the superintendent of real estate, I think he has a big job a head of him.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Vancouver is the only place I know where if you don't live in the center of town it doesn't count as living in Vancouver.
If you move to London or New York do you expect to live in Manhatten or Kensington or Westminster with a view of the Houses of Parliment?

New Westminster and Surrey are all still part of Vancouver, as is Langley. It would help if there were a decent train service that ran up the valley all day and night granted but I doubt there's a more beautiful suburb in Canada than Maple Ridge or Mission and yet people here seem to think it's some kind of purgatory being inflicted on them that they have to live in a place that would be considered paradise by most in the world.

I really don't get it, I bought my first houses out in the valley, that paid for the down payment on my place in East Van, it's not the end of the world to bring your kids up in Poco then move into Vancouver later on if you want.

It's an issue that from the outside, it's considered "Vancouver" but from the inside it's not. It's like that in any city though. If you had someone from NYC talk about various metro areas, they would not consider them NYC. Meanwhile us outsideers would.

Vancouver is also unique among those cities in that the cost of housing in places that are an 1.5 hours out is still astronomical. This is true regardless of how nice the properties or neighbourhoods are. Even in NYC you can find houses in bad subburb areas that are cheap. Not so much in Vancouver. Even a house in a run down area of Langley will cost an arm a leg. Houses in PoCo are starting at (or at least they were a couple of months ago) at over a million now.

Factor in salaries and Vancouver is even more unique.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's an issue that from the outside, it's considered "Vancouver" but from the inside it's not. It's like that in any city though. If you had someone from NYC talk about various metro areas, they would not consider them NYC. Meanwhile us outsideers would.

Vancouver is also unique among those cities in that the cost of housing in places that are an 1.5 hours out is still astronomical. This is true regardless of how nice the properties or neighbourhoods are. Even in NYC you can find houses in bad subburb areas that are cheap. Not so much in Vancouver. Even a house in a run down area of Langley will cost an arm a leg. Houses in PoCo are starting at (or at least they were a couple of months ago) at over a million now.

Factor in salaries and Vancouver is even more unique.

You can still by a piece of crap three bedroom on a standard lot in maple ridge for 400,000 granted that's a dumpy looking thing but they're there.
First house I bought was a tear down with a leaky basement, that's just were you start here. Maybe coming from London made it easier for me to accept the compromises you have to make but there's no way I'd spend 500,000 on a townhouse in maple ridge, the whole point of buying there is get a bit of land with a crap house on it, pay down the mortgage, do some work on the house, make sure the wife has no part in the choosing of it!!

[Galakanokis]

There are three houses (3 bed, 2 bath) in Maple Ridge that go for $549,500 and they are the cheapest. While I agree that buying a townhouse in Maple ridge is a little silly there really isn't much too chose from otherwise. One house is under a 1000 sqft and a small plot of land, 6000 sqft.

At some point young families, which my friend is just need a place to live in and not worry about having to tear it down in a year or two or sinking another $100K into it just to make it livable.

[peter12]

This is why the "we need more condos" is a bit of a joke, and obviously serves interests that would profit.

You need single-detached homes to raise a family. The numbers here are indisputable.

[V]

You can always buy in Chilliwack.

Enjoy your 3 hour commute.

[Galakanokis]

Another co-worker lives in Chilliwack, he mostly works at night so he avoids traffic but even that is still a 110Kkm trip that takes him just over an hour to do. If he comes in for 8am it is just under 2hrs.

I live in Burnaby, on the east side at the bottom of Burnaby mountain and it takes me 40 to 50 minutes in rush hour, that's about 20km.

[Flash Walken]

New York, London and Hong Kong all have massive public transit infrasctructure to move their poor and huddled masses from economically dense downtown to less dense suburban areas.

Vancouver is still struggling to implement the payment system for their skytrain that doesn't connect to most of the GVRD in a meaningful way.

If major cities were NHL teams, Vancouver would be the Oilers. Living out rebuild after rebuild with precious little real success, but always ready to tell you how great of a city it is. Best in the world, world class etc.

[V]

One thing I notice whenever I'm in the Lower Mainland, is everyone talks about traffic. All the time. It's kind of funny.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

You can still by a piece of crap three bedroom on a standard lot in maple ridge for 400,000 granted that's a dumpy looking thing but they're there.
First house I bought was a tear down with a leaky basement, that's just were you start here. Maybe coming from London made it easier for me to accept the compromises you have to make but there's no way I'd spend 500,000 on a townhouse in maple ridge, the whole point of buying there is get a bit of land with a crap house on it, pay down the mortgage, do some work on the house, make sure the wife has no part in the choosing of it!!

That might have been true a decade ago but not now.

When a dumpy house in a subburb is $350-$400 k sure. A middle class family can buy it, build some equity and then move on up.

When the price starts at $600k plus for areas as far out as Maple Ridge, not so much. How is a teacher, fireman, nurse, etc... supposed to save up in Vancouver for a down payment and then pay for a home that starts at $600k? And that's in an outlying area that leaves you socially isolated and with a huge commute. Then when the prices of housing in more central areas outpace the rate you can build equity, who exactly do you eventually afford to live in a more desirable area? You don't. Instead, you become chained to an area you didn't want to be in the first place.

That's the issue. Vancouver went from being an expensive city to an unaffordable one.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by V

One thing I notice whenever I'm in the Lower Mainland, is everyone talks about traffic. All the time. It's kind of funny.

The thoroughfare from downtown Vancouver to the airport is a two-land residential road.

It's a gorgeous locale, but in the words of my Russian father-in-law, Vancouver is a village with a few fancy houses.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

New York, London and Hong Kong all have massive public transit infrasctructure to move their poor and huddled masses from economically dense downtown to less dense suburban areas.

Vancouver is still struggling to implement the payment system for their skytrain that doesn't connect to most of the GVRD in a meaningful way.

If major cities were NHL teams, Vancouver would be the Oilers. Living out rebuild after rebuild with precious little real success, but always ready to tell you how great of a city it is. Best in the world, world class etc.

A major issue with that is once again the wages in relation to needs. The governments taxes are based on the income of the people within their jurisdiction. Vancouver is full of non-residents and people who don't have high salaries. That leads to less taxes, which leads to less infrastructure.

[afc wimbledon]

Realtylink lists 4 sub 400,000 homes in Maple Ridge, all the kind of dumps I started my home buying in, actually one of them looks like a nice little rental property that I am now thinking I might take a look at!