Alberta Politics Thread

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Zarley

They formed the government because a sizable minority of (ill-informed) Albertans voted for a charismatic party leader without consulting the NDP platform before the election. I doubt more than 50% of NDP voters even knew what the party had planned with respect to corporate tax rates at the time of the election.

It really highlights a shortcoming of our education system. The fact that so many people are woefully uneducated with respect to finance and macroeconomics is a very concerning problem.

I would reject that whole idea of people being ill-informed, I am very informed and voted NDP based on their platform. I believe a lot of people did also. There is something to be said for the social issues, the government has more to do than just balance the books.

Their policies are as valid as any other party's and have been validated on numerous occasions by industry. It is a ####ty situation that no other government would be doing well in. I am not going to say they haven't made mistakes, but I think it is a fools dream to think the Wildrose would have lifted Alberta out of this recession any faster, but that we will never know.

Sure there are some people that regret their vote and did not know who they were voting for but a lot of Wildrosers did too I'm sure. To blame the whole election on ill-informed or uneducated is unfounded and sour grapes, especially considering it was a swing by the educated that helped the election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle24352152/

"Big shifts in voting patterns were related to education levels. Ridings that have above-average proportions of university-degree holders went overwhelmingly PC in 2012 – 32 of the 43 ridings – and 29 of them went NDP this time. Ridings with lower levels of university education, according to Statistics Canada, shifted toward the NDP as well, but remained a strength of the Wildrose in both elections."

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Addick

Isn't highway maintenance already contracted out?

There's still a sizable chunk of dollars in the budget for highway maintenance that's part of the costs, that doesn't look like its an outsourced or infrastructure cost.

[CaptainCrunch]

I believe that a PST at this point would be a greater drag on the economy in this province especially if you implement one on top of the carbon tax

We have a major spending problem in this province, pre oil crash there was a spending problem and not a revenue problem, now there's a spending problem and a revenue problem.

If we put in a PST on top of the carbon tax, the government will literally be double dipping on everything that's effected by the carbon tax.

On top of it things like PST's are not class specific, the lower income who are already going be be effected by the carbon tax because the rebate or refund or whatever isn't going to cover all of the costs to a low income earner because of the ripple effect of the carbon tax across consumer goods will be hit against with a pst across all goods.

The middle class who's getting squeezed by a change in the provincial tax, and the CPP increases, will get squeezed more by the carbon tax which will probably reduce their discretionary spending and then the PST will further reduce it.

The upper class will probably reduce their discretionary spending as well because of the overall increase of a provincial tax, a carbon tax and a income tax increase.

Would we see a increase in the taxes collected? absolutely because people will have no choice but to buy stuff that gets them day to day. But at the same time the rest of the economy will stumble because people will stop spending.

The middle class will get squeezed hard with the lower middle class probably sliding into a low income bracket. The lower class will stuggle more even with an increase in minimum wage that will get eaten away by taxation and increased pricing.

If your going to do a provincial tax as a government or a carbon tax or an icrease in taxation, then you'd better find a way to bring spending under control.

But the pockets are only so deep in terms of taxation before you stagnate and kill your economy.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I would reject that whole idea of people being ill-informed, I am very informed and voted NDP based on their platform. I believe a lot of people did also. There is something to be said for the social issues, the government has more to do than just balance the books.

I mentioned it before in the thread but I think it's premature for people to believe (hope) that a second NDP government is not possible. We could easily be more than 80-100 billion in the hole by the time we potentially host the Olympics again.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I mentioned it before in the thread but I think it's premature for people to believe (hope) that a second NDP government is not possible. We could easily be more than 80-100 billion in the hole by the time we potentially host the Olympics again.

This would be the absolute worst thing for Alberta in probably its history as a province (I say that as a centrist aka Liberal). You are right. A fractured right is a possibility going into next election. Vote split could happen again, although I highly doubt anyone will be voting NDP out of spite.

I think NDP should get the sense they are going back to being the Edmonton party next time. They can't seem to help themselves these days. Which is scary as they may have no incentive to play the middle on anything go forward. Take Alberta out with a big orange fireball.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by chemgear

I mentioned it before in the thread but I think it's premature for people to believe (hope) that a second NDP government is not possible. We could easily be more than 80-100 billion in the hole by the time we potentially host the Olympics again.

Oh, it's possible, but were an election held today, incredibly unlikely. The NDP have no prayer in rural Alberta, and their support in Calgary is currently lower than that. They still have a healthy lead in Edmonton, but have even shaved 1/3 of their support in the capital. Current polls argue that, at best, Notley could carve out a bare minority. And even that would be dependent on the PCs and Wildrose splitting everything outside of Edmonton relatively even, plus Greg Clark and the Liberals stealing a seat or two in the city.

Now, those are just polls, of course, and as I have previously noted, I consider Liberal support to basically mean "undecided". But barring an economic recovery to help mask it all, Notley's faults are going to be laid bare on a consistent basis.

[chemgear]

11 billion in overspending is a "(C)onservative" approach. I look forward to the normal (NDP) approach.

Joking aside, for the comment in bold . . . How exactly can you see it being balanced? What is he even saying?!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...date-1.3733964

The NDP government is not pinning its financial hopes on a hefty improvement in oil prices, says Alberta Finance Minister Joe Ceci.

"No, It's not a balanced budget, but it's a budget that we can see balancing,"

[RubberDuck]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I would reject that whole idea of people being ill-informed, I am very informed and voted NDP based on their platform. I believe a lot of people did also. There is something to be said for the social issues, the government has more to do than just balance the books.

Are there social issues that have been fixed by the NDP? Are there any lives that have been improved by NDP social policy? What social issues did you expect to see addressed as an NDP voter? I'm not trying to be an ass, just trying to see if there actually is an upside for someone in any of this mess.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I would reject that whole idea of people being ill-informed, I am very informed and voted NDP based on their platform. I believe a lot of people did also. There is something to be said for the social issues, the government has more to do than just balance the books.

Their policies are as valid as any other party's and have been validated on numerous occasions by industry. It is a ####ty situation that no other government would be doing well in. I am not going to say they haven't made mistakes, but I think it is a fools dream to think the Wildrose would have lifted Alberta out of this recession any faster, but that we will never know.

Sure there are some people that regret their vote and did not know who they were voting for but a lot of Wildrosers did too I'm sure. To blame the whole election on ill-informed or uneducated is unfounded and sour grapes, especially considering it was a swing by the educated that helped the election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle24352152/

"Big shifts in voting patterns were related to education levels. Ridings that have above-average proportions of university-degree holders went overwhelmingly PC in 2012 – 32 of the 43 ridings – and 29 of them went NDP this time. Ridings with lower levels of university education, according to Statistics Canada, shifted toward the NDP as well, but remained a strength of the Wildrose in both elections."

There is a very large difference between being an educated voter, and voting in an educated manner.

Presenting the NDP victory as some form of well thought out and reasoned outcome by the educated is naive. Just because you are educated does not mean you are any less prone to bias or flawed decision making. If anything, it places a far higher responsibility to truly weigh, without bias, what is in the best interests of the province.

If you truly believe that saddling the province with a massive debt burden, driving away business, and blindly seeking "environmental social license" is in Albertas best interest, I'm not sure what to say.

A protest vote yielded this province an incompetent collection of MLAs driven by ideology.

The argument that "any other government would be struggling" is equally naive.

The NDP from the start have done nothing but increase costs to Albertans and corporations.

My expectation for a government faced by an unprecedented recession is to do everything in their power to incentivize businesses in the province to continue investing and operating here.

The reality is that from the start the NDP government has operated to increase costs, increase uncertainty, and reduce the attractiveness of investing in Alberta.

So no, they can't control the hand they were dealt when elected. They sure as hell can control how they responded. And to date, that response has been disastrous, filled with incompetence, and will ultimately result in a massive and unacceptable debt burden on future generations of Albertans.

When you say that voting for the NDP was educated, that truly concerns me.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by RubberDuck

Are there social issues that have been fixed by the NDP? Are there any lives that have been improved by NDP social policy? What social issues did you expect to see addressed as an NDP voter? I'm not trying to be an ass, just trying to see if there actually is an upside for someone in any of this mess.

I think the only thing I've seen social wise was the bill where abused woman couldn't be held to their lease.

Even the whole gay alliance thing, came from the conservatives in their dying day.

The NDP have been more focused on their economic policy, the farmers bill muff, and some partisan politics when it comes to campaign financing that puts the advantage in their court.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If your going to do a provincial tax as a government or a carbon tax or an icrease in taxation, then you'd better find a way to bring spending under control.

But the pockets are only so deep in terms of taxation before you stagnate and kill your economy.

I agree. A PST is only palpable if there are actual, tangible initiatives to cut spending. This could include 5+% wage cuts to teachers, doctors and nurses (yes, front line workers too).

Not PST + "find inefficiencies and close loopholes." Or "management takes a wage freeze but we're unwilling to do anything else."

Either way the point is that there is no way out of htis without some painful decisions. Prentice tried - he tried to mitigate it with his health levy, increased taxes and cuts to spending.

Instead we voted in a group that somehow thought that budgets balance themselves if we just keep taxing the rich.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by RubberDuck

I'm not trying to be an ass, just trying to see if there actually is an upside for someone in any of this mess.

Unions. It's a good time for a raise for those people that work really really hard.

[belsarius]

Well social issues start with health and education. The largest costs in the Province but also the largest services. By ensuring those weren't unilaterally slashed the NDP prevented a return to the late 90s where Klein all but decimated those services and had Alberta in the dark ages. The government is responsible for ensuring the provision of these services, yes they have become bloated but you simply can't knife down 10B dollars without a huge social cost.

Bill 6 was not a muff, it provides farm workers with fair and reasonable protections enjoyed by all other industries and farmers in the country. The right to refuse unsafe work is a cornerstone of workers rights and that was sorely missed.

The minimum wage increase was also a social issue more than an economic one. Alberta had the largest disparity between it's mean income and it's minimum wage meaning minimum wage earners were being more and more marginalized and unable to support themselves. If you think someone working full time deserves to need the food bank then I don't know what to say.

Bringing in environmental rules (and yes the carbon tax) to help bring Alberta into the global change. Every jurisdiction in the western world is needing to focus on it and ensure that something is done to help combat GHG emissions. It is not like the NDP unilaterally decided what action to take, they appointed a commission to come up with the best alternative, much better than the money waste hole that the Saskatchewan Carbon Capture experiment is. In fact when you look at NDP commissions there are a lot more industry involvement under them then there ever was environmental involvement under the previous government.


To think any other government would be fairing better is also naïve. They can't even be bothered to issue a shadow budget to show how things would be better. Brian Jean's entire platform was "no new taxes", not much to go on there but pandering to the uneducated who believe all taxes are bad. He would have put thousands more out of work and prayed that trickle down economics actually work.

[the_only_turek_fan]

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/ne...ate=2016-08-23

In just the last year, Alberta added 47,000 public-sector workers to the payroll. What’s vital to the NDP is apparently not just refusing to cut spending, or merely hold the line on spending, but to always keep doing more of it, no matter how little money comes in. Whether Rachel Notley’s government is doing enough to reduce Alberta’s dependence on oil isn’t the issue; it’s that her government’s spending is no longer dependent on anything.

Those that don't think spending cuts alone can fix the problem really need re-assess things.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Two things:

1) I don't think anyone has said spending cuts alone can't fix the budget issues. It's that if you choose spending cuts alone people need to be prepared for massive service cuts, which we all know everyone will whine about.

2) The article doesn't say 47,000; the verbatim line is "In just the last year, Alberta added tens of thousands of public-sector workers to the payroll". And since it's an opinion piece, probably more hyperbole than fact.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Two things:

1) I don't think anyone has said spending cuts alone can't fix the budget issues. It's that if you choose spending cuts alone people need to be prepared for massive service cuts, which we all know everyone will whine about.

2) The article doesn't say 47,000; the verbatim line is "In just the last year, Alberta added tens of thousands of public-sector workers to the payroll". And since it's an opinion piece, probably more hyperbole than fact.

I think the 47,000 comes from an Ezra Levant article. I haven't been able to find the statscan information to corroborate it though so if anyone has it I'd love to see it.

If they did increase the public service by 12% last year (which is the claim of 47,000) then they are actually genius because they did it by increasing costs by only 2% (operating costs from 2015 to 2016). Seems like a 10% win to me!

[Kjesse]

When I read the article it said 47,000. Seems the NP phantom edited its article, which is very common.

[Jacks]

Remember the good old days when we used to laugh at Ontario for being an economic basketcase?

[Zarley]

A public sector worker is a likely NDP voter. Perhaps that is their re-election strategy!

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

That's not particularly true. The reason those public servants make more was because they worked in a hot labour market. You simply can't separate the market for teachers with the market for oil and gas workers. They compete against each other for talent. This is a basic tenet of economics that is wholly lost in these reaches.

Now sure, we can ask to roll back wages. But as you know they're sticky and there will be a hell of a fight to do so. Is that where you want to spend your political capital? Maybe. But just saying that's how it ought to be is fairly disjointed from the reality of how it would happen.

The only gig left is sales taxes and other revenue increases.

Not on existing contracts, but as soon as those contracts are done, you are ####ing right they should go after pay reductions.

No one can defend pay raises for public servants who are already the highest paid in the country when we have had thousands of layoffs, multiple pay reductions, and higher taxes in the private sector.