The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Yes, but the lack of any GOTV operation is an issue for him there too. Florida is tricky to poll, and unless he turns out huge numbers in the panhandle and other rural areas, I think he will be in tough in the final analysis.

Besides, if he loses Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, Florida may become an afterthought (for the first time in recent memory)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Three new state polls from YouGov this morning: Clinton leads by 9 in New Hampshire, and by 5 in Florida, while Trump leads by 4 in Georgia.

Only national numbers are from the weird USC/Dornsife tracking poll, which I am not sure what to make of. That one has had the best numbers for Trump for a long while, but recently Clinton has pulled ahead by 5.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Not much polling to report on today, other than Clinton leading by 5 in the CVoter tracking poll and her lead shrinking to 4 in the USC/Dornsife poll. Presumably there's more polling in the offing for after the Olympics.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Not much polling to report on today, other than Clinton leading by 5 in the CVoter tracking poll and her lead shrinking to 4 in the USC/Dornsife poll. Presumably there's more polling in the offing for after the Olympics.

One interesting one was the Expedition Strategies poll of Indiana Aug 1-3. What was elected to be a reliably red spot regardless in the rust belt showed a tie

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Missed that one.

If Indiana is even close, we are in landslide territory. Other polls have shown Trump with a lead there, but the last week of missteps may be starting to cascade a little bit.

[Senator Clay Davis]

New NBC poll has Trump still down 9. So even after her post convention bump and his post Khan disaster have subsided, he's still in big trouble. If these are still the numbers by Labour Day I imagine we'll see the GOP bail out of his campaign and into Congressional and Senate races.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Clinton also leads by 8 in a new WaPo poll of Virginia. Only interesting thing there is that she leads by double digits among registered voters, but that narrows to just 8 among likely voters. Either way, consistent with the new NBC numbers.

[killer_carlson]

I still think that is part of Trump's strategy though (not saying it's a good strategy). I think Trump is ok being abandoned by the GOP. It plays into his anti-establishment card and fits with his shoot from the hip campaign style. I don't know if he's nuts or if he's daring them to do it. I'm beginning to think the latter.

I think that's going to be a big part of his message down the stretch, especially in the last 45 days or so. Trump vs status quo, and "the establishment is so afraid they'd have you vote Clinton rather than be held accountable...."

[Senator Clay Davis]

That anti-establishment card is mostly meaningless when the anti-establishment candidate in question has proven himself mentally incompetent for the job and is arguably the worst candidate ever to run for President. When it comes time to vote people aren't trusting the country to a guy with the maturity of a 9 year old, a guy who spends more time on Twitter than actually crafting policy. Anti-establishment is not the same as wholly unqualified. Trump has proven he's clearly the later.

Beyond that once the GOP cuts him off he has no more fundraising with their network, no organization, no get out the vote movement. Trump needs all those things to probably lose anyway. Without them he's gonna get crushed and we could be looking at a 40-10 state beatdown in the electoral college

[the_only_turek_fan]

I am praying the GOP can just keep the house at this point.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I still think that is part of Trump's strategy though (not saying it's a good strategy). I think Trump is ok being abandoned by the GOP. It plays into his anti-establishment card and fits with his shoot from the hip campaign style. I don't know if he's nuts or if he's daring them to do it. I'm beginning to think the latter.

I think that's going to be a big part of his message down the stretch, especially in the last 45 days or so. Trump vs status quo, and "the establishment is so afraid they'd have you vote Clinton rather than be held accountable...."

That's a terrible strategy. It will likely get you slaughtered in a general election.

[Senator Clay Davis]

PPP poll out of Texas has Trump up by only 6 points. Yes he'll probably still win, but this just continues to trend of Trump badly under performing in red states that Romney cruised in. That'll be one of my favorite parts of Trump ultimately losing, Romney getting to call Trump a loser for doing even worse than he did.

[octothorp]

Democrats close to picking up the seats they need for Senate majority, in current polls:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...rump-downhill/

[Street Pharmacist]

Rudy Guliani didn't forget about 9/11. Not that his point was an especially good one, but that was just bad editing:

http://www.snopes.com/2016/08/16/rud...i-911-remarks/

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

I am praying the GOP can just keep the house at this point.

Why?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Why?

Seriously?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Rudy Guliani didn't forget about 9/11. Not that his point was an especially good one, but that was just bad editing:

http://www.snopes.com/2016/08/16/rud...i-911-remarks/

Actually, it's kind of Orwellian.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by peter12

Seriously?

Yes

[peter12]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Yes

I am curious as to why. Do you think it would be a good thing if the Democrats controlled both Houses, the Executive, and eventually, were able to stack the Supreme Court?

[puffnstuff]

I want to know his reasons. But I guess having the Houses blocking and fillibustering and basically getting nothing at all done, good or bad, is worth it. Or maybe because the GOP can look at keeping the Houses as an indication they are on the right path in regards to social issues and dont need to change.

edit: This should probably be in the other thread, not the polling one.