The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[JayP]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Don't the Jays have a high OBP because they draw a lot of walks? OBP doesn't translate into runs on the board. Half the time one of the Jays will walk and the next guy grounds into a double play.

OBP has a much higher correlation with run scoring than batting average - that's grade one stuff. That's kind of the reason it's such a popular stat.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JayP

OBP has a much higher correlation with run scoring than batting average - that's grade one stuff. That's kind of the reason it's such a popular stat.

OBP means nothing for runs, if they don't come around to score. I would imagine the Jays are top 5 in the league for leaving runners on base (no stats to back that up though, and i'm too lazy to look).

[steveo]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

OBP means nothing for runs, if they don't come around to score. I would imagine the Jays are top 5 in the league for leaving runners on base (no stats to back that up though, and i'm too lazy to look).

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...ition-per-game

If that's what you're looking for.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by steveo

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...ition-per-game

If that's what you're looking for.

Do you know what the difference between the first two are? Looks like they are about right in the middle of the league for leaving guys on base. That surprises me, as I figured they would have been worse.

[steveo]

I honestly am not sure what the differences are between the two, I posted because I was hoping someone else would know haha!

[formulate]

The first is runner left on base at the end of each inning. The second is adding how many each individual batter leaves on base.

So a leadoff runner getting on and stranded would only count as 1 LOB in link 1, but 3 (one for each batter who left him there) in the second.

[formulate]

In any case, big LOB numbers aren't exactly a bad thing, rather inevitable with a high OBP.

Boston is at the top in getting on base, which has given them the league lead in runs, but also leads to more runners being stranded. In that sense, you can almost equate LOB with with missed or saved shots in hockey. A missed opportunity, but inevitable when you are getting lots of opportunities (obviously a good thing).

[mrkajz44]

Yeah, I think that's why LOB is a stat that never really caught on. It is a very contextual stat that is tough to look at on its own a draw a good conclusion. Low LOB could mean the opposing pitcher just shut you down or you happened to go yard a few times with 2 outs in innings (ending the inning with no one on base).

I only find it useful when scorekeeping to make sure I'm accounting for every batter correctly. Every single guy has three outcomes: run, out, or LOB

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

OBP means nothing for runs, if they don't come around to score. I would imagine the Jays are top 5 in the league for leaving runners on base (no stats to back that up though, and i'm too lazy to look).

Well, yes it does. If you're fielding a roster with an elite OBP, and therefore hitting with runners on base at a more frequent rate, you're undoubtedly in a much better position to score runs.

If you look at the top 3 OBP teams this year: Boston, Chicago, Colorado. Those teams are number 1, number 4, and number 2 respectively in runs scored.

There's really no arguing that OBP does not equate to runs. Slugging is also a factor, but simply hitting league average with runners on base will still result in a ton of runs for the team's with high OBP.

[JiriHrdina]

I think there are some universal things that some fans believe about their team because we all follow them more closely. So you see the things that all teams do, but assume your team does it more often
- My team strikes out too much
- My team always leaves men on base
- My team's bullpen sucks
- My team's middle relievers are terrible
- My team's *shortstop/catcher/2b/utility player* can't hit worth a damn

Obviously there are teams who truly stink at that stuff relative to the averages, but I think almost universally this is stuff that fans believe about their teams.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I think there are some universal things that some fans believe about their team because we all follow them more closely. So you see the things that all teams do, but assume your team does it more often
- My team strikes out too much
- My team always leaves men on base
- My team's bullpen sucks
- My team's middle relievers are terrible
- My team's *shortstop/catcher/2b/utility player* can't hit worth a damn

Obviously there are teams who truly stink at that stuff relative to the averages, but I think almost universally this is stuff that fans believe about their teams.

Add

- My team's 5th starter is terrible and any other pitcher would be better.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Add

- My team's 5th starter is terrible and any other pitcher would be better.

I believe that to be the truth with Toronto. His name is RA Dickey, and he sucks and brings his even suckier friend Thole along with him

[formulate]

As bad as he (and Stroman) have been for much of the year, think about the bottom of Baltimore's rotation. Jimenez, Wilson, Gallardo and Wright have combined for almost 60 starts and the lower ERA among them is 4.98.

[Sylvanfan]

On base combined with Slugging is still what I would consider to be the best indicator for equating to runs.

We had this discussion a few years back when the Jays actually had a good batting average as a team but woeful slugging, and on base.

A team like last years Royals was essentially relying on 2-3 hits to score runs because they seldom walked and dd, and unless you steal a base, you need to develop 3 hits in an inning to score a run.

This years Jays are still 3rd in the AL in terms of runs, but they're currenly 5th in slugging percentage, 4th in on base, 5th in OPS, and 13th in batting average. Tell me again how that bad batting average is costing the team in runs scored?

The batting average will have an affect on the on base, and the slugging. But as a stand alone stat, I think it's a poor indicator. Again the Royals...5th in average, 14th in OPS...15th in runs scored.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by formulate

As bad as he (and Stroman) have been for much of the year, think about the bottom of Baltimore's rotation. Jimenez, Wilson, Gallardo and Wright have combined for almost 60 starts and the lower ERA among them is 4.98.

Every year if you scour MLB rosters....each team is lucky to have 3 guys who throw 162 innings and qualify for the ERA title.

Last year 36 pitchers in the AL threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title...38 did in the National League.

This year there are 45 or so AL pitchers looking like they could get to 162 innings. Dickey is 32nd in ERA, and 12th in terms of innings pitched right now.

He's not an ace, and will never be worth what they gave up to get him...but he has given the Jays something that's not as easy to come by as some would have you believe.

It's a serious outlier to have the 1, 3, & 6 guys in terms of ERA all on the same team, and 5 guys who throw more than 162 innings on your pitching staff.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by steveo

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...-base-per-game

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...ition-per-game

If that's what you're looking for.

Joe Morgan would be rolling in his grave...

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by formulate

As bad as he (and Stroman) have been for much of the year, think about the bottom of Baltimore's rotation. Jimenez, Wilson, Gallardo and Wright have combined for almost 60 starts and the lower ERA among them is 4.98.

Unfortunately for the Jays, Gallardo saves his best performances for them.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

If you look at the top 3 OBP teams this year: Boston, Chicago, Colorado. Those teams are number 1, number 4, and number 2 respectively in runs scored.

They all play in HR friendly parks. That helps turn OB to runs.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by troutman

They all play in HR friendly parks. That helps turn OB to runs.

Wrigley?

[TheAlpineOracle]

I'm excited to see what Liriano has tonight.