Alberta Politics Thread

[Red Ice Player]

If your first instinct to a catastrophe in your province is to make a cheap political point, then that is how you will be judged forever, no matter what kind of fake apology you give.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

oh seriously we are upset about... what???

everyone is allowed to have opinions -- even if they are different from our own value. Why are we wasting time on a "lone wolf"? (do we not have better things to do?)

seriously.... What is upsetting?

Since when is a sociopath taking pleasure in the suffering of others not upsetting?

Would even we respond if it was a disturbed Xtian telling us the fire was "gods will" for LGBT policies?

The only way I can imagine you could ask this question is that do not know what the Westboro Baptist Church is. The short answer is that yes, people would react just as strongly.

in a free speech society.. everyone has the right to their own... even weird... opinion.

Free speech =/= consequence free speech. Your license to speak does not protect you from other people's license to criticize you.

You don't have to waste your time trying to correct anyone with a different view of the world.

We don't have to, we choose to. Likewise, you chose to try and correct our view of the world by arguing we shouldn't be exercising our own right to speech in response to his.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Go to the Guardian site and read the comments from readers in the article on the fire. It's funny how many people have adopted global warming as a kind of religion.

So what's your opinion on man-made climate change, Cliff? People on this website have consistently posted links to well-written, scientific articles on the subject, from very credible sources. I'd have thought as a supposed man of objective and evidence-based discourse that's what you would want to see.

[Coach]

What a clown.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I'd say we've reached the stage where it stopped being a scientific issue that people assess based on evidence and rational analysis, and become just another ideological battleground.

It stopped? Earlier the discussion was less based on evidence. More people seem to be accepting the science.

[CliffFletcher]

There's a huge stretch from recognizing that human emissions are contributing to a general warming of the planet, and attributing every heat wave and extreme weather event to global warming.

Global warming has become a cause. When things become a cause, people tend to stop thinking in preference for feeling. Feeling solidarity with the people on your side. Vilifying the bad guys. Denouncing everyone who disagrees or challenges an assertion as one of Them. That's why there are people halfway around the world vilifying Fort Mac, and taking satisfaction in their misfortune - to them, the issue has become a morality play.

[Flamenspiel]

^^Excellent point and furthermore the leader of the Green Party: Elizabeth May has come out and said as much(from CBC Web Site):

"...in a statement sent to reporters, May said she wasn't directly tying the Fort McMurray wildfire to climate change. "No credible climate scientist would make this claim, and neither do I make this claim,"...

[troutman]

Ok, I understand what you are saying better now.

Climate Science itself does not try to explain individual events. It is big picture stuff.

I try to resist saying a particular flood or fire is the result of Global Warming. It may be one factor among many.

[Fuzz]

Even the IPCC has said in their latest report that they can't attribute extreme events to climate change.

One item of note from the IPCC:

Some of the interannual variability in rates of persons affected by disasters may be associated with El Niño

and I'm sure many climatologists would attribute this event and weather pattern to El Nino, rather than climate change. Though the El Nino may be more extreme due to a warming climate.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Even the IPCC has said in their latest report that they can't attribute extreme events to climate change.

One item of note from the IPCC:

and I'm sure many climatologists would attribute this event and weather pattern to El Nino, rather than climate change. Though the El Nino may be more extreme due to a warming climate.

That's right, but you can often attribute a pattern of increasing extreme events to underlying causes that are a result of climate change. Something like this isn't common in Alberta, so it's stupid to say it's a result of climate change. The increasing number of forest fires in say BC and California, and fire seasons beginning earlier every year in these locations are a different story.

[Resolute 14]

Well, yeah. But that's the difference between climate change alarmism and climate change science.

We are also exacerbating things in numerous other ways - humans are starting more fires, due to accident, negligence or malice. Also, our own fire supresion programs are making things worse as we are preventing the normal burns that basically clean up forests. As a result, there is more fuel on the ground piling up, and the trees themselves are reaching more mature stages that burn easier and hotter. This is, in fact, something that was specifically called out in the report following Slave Lake.

There are a lot of reasons why these fires are getting worse, and many of them are human induced. But screaming "climate change!" at the top of ones lungs belies the fact that climate change is actually well down the list of reasons for this.

[Fuzz]

It's also tough to tease out the climate contribution vs other contributors. For instance, our fire suppression has made it more likely we have larger fires than before, particularly around inhabited areas). Humans are also known for starting fires(smoker's, campfires, industrial incidents), so the more people you have around, the better chance of an ignition.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

That's right, but you can often attribute a pattern of increasing extreme events to underlying causes that are a result of climate change. Something like this isn't common in Alberta, so it's stupid to say it's a result of climate change. The increasing number of forest fires in say BC and California, and fire seasons beginning earlier every year in these locations are a different story.

Is that just correlation though? There are so many factors. We've cut down the amount of logging as well, and that literally adds fuel to the fires.

[rubecube]

Totally. There's always room for nuance and it's never just one thing but to say CC is not a factor just isn't true.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

the fact that climate change is actually well down the list of reasons

That's a fact? Citation?

[Fuzz]

This is from the IPCC report, for reference:

Note that "likely" is 66-100% probability range.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Totally. There's always room for nuance and it's never just one thing but to say CC is not a factor just isn't true.

well sure, but let's play pretend and say that the climate just stopped and reversed to where it was in what...1985? Those other factors still come to bear and we haven't solved much of anything. There is still the problem with fire suppression, still not enough selective logging and we won't solve the people doing silly things in dry conditions. Could we solve all of these issues? Sure...maybe. But forest fires happen, and truth be told we want them to happen to regenerate the forests and spur new growth.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It's also tough to tease out the climate contribution vs other contributors. For instance, our fire suppression has made it more likely we have larger fires than before, particularly around inhabited areas). Humans are also known for starting fires(smoker's, campfires, industrial incidents), so the more people you have around, the better chance of an ignition.

Originally Posted by Slava

Is that just correlation though? There are so many factors. We've cut down the amount of logging as well, and that literally adds fuel to the fires.

All of those things contribute, but having fire seasons start earlier every year is also attributable to warmer temperatures and milder winters. We had firebans as early as May Long weekend last year and it'll likely be around the same time this year. Five years ago fire season really didn't start until June.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by troutman

That's a fact? Citation?

I literally just pointed out a couple of the major reasons identified in government reports discussing why fires are getting much worse in Alberta in the very post you did not read.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by rubecube

All of those things contribute, but having fire seasons start earlier every year is also attributable to warmer temperatures and milder winters. We had firebans as early as May Long weekend last year and it'll likely be around the same time this year. Five years ago fire season really didn't start until June.

Well this year is El Nino though. Its an outlier by definition? Was it last March when it was -30 in March, or the year before? Five years in the grand scheme of things and a planet that is millions of years old is a blip. That is probably my biggest concern with the science of climate change. Its extrapolating this small sample size and combining it with some familiarity and recency bias to forecast the next century.