If anyone should have regrets about not running it's obviously Biden. I suspect he would have romped and this would have been over a month ago. Hillary's high unlikability is basically the biggest reason Bernie is still viable right now. With Biden involved there's a middle candidate everyone likes. That type of candidate basically can't lose in the Democratic race.
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Last edited by Senator Clay Davis; 04-20-2016 at 08:40 AM.
If anyone should have regrets about not running it's obviously Biden. I suspect he would have romped and this would have been over a month ago. Hillary's high unlikability is basically the biggest reason Bernie is still viable right now. With Biden involved there's a middle candidate everyone likes. That type of candidate basically can't lose.
Having two viable candidates on the slate though would split the ticket.
There hasn't been too much mud slinging going on between Bernie and HIllary as compared to say, McCain vs. Bush. That sort of stuff hurts the democrats more than the republicans I think. It's in the DNC's best interest to keep those kind of political tactics reserved for partisan attacks later on.
If you put Biden in there the Clinton campaign would be forced to change strategies to drag Biden through the mud.
I wonder what is going on in her thoughts right now.
Had she run, she would have easily won the nomination.
IIRC she didn't run because she understands it doesn't matter who the president is. I believe she said she wanted to stay where she could actually do some real good for people. Hard to blame her.
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Having two viable candidates on the slate though would split the ticket.
There hasn't been too much mud slinging going on between Bernie and HIllary as compared to say, McCain vs. Bush. That sort of stuff hurts the democrats more than the republicans I think. It's in the DNC's best interest to keep those kind of political tactics reserved for partisan attacks later on.
If you put Biden in there the Clinton campaign would be forced to change strategies to drag Biden through the mud.
Well I tend to think Bernie is the odd man out in that situation. He still has his strong left wing support, but that's a very low % of the Democratic vote (less than 20%). Whether his supporters want to accept this or not, he's being propped up a lot by her being the opponent. I don't think he breaks 30% if Biden is involved and it's a 3 way race, and that leaves him in the Kasich zone where he might win a state or two but is mostly irrelevant.
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My hope stands that Hillary names Elizabeth Warren as the VP.
Not gonna happen...
A: She's not from a swing state,
B: Won't reel in any demographics that Clinton/Democrats wouldn't get on their own,
C: The governor of her state is a Republican (so were that ticket to win the democrats would lose a seat in the senate).
I'd put money on Tim Kaine if anyone.
Last edited by Parallex; 04-20-2016 at 09:15 AM.
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Bernie's campaign manager made an ass of himself last night, saying that even if they lose the pledged count and the popular vote, they still will go to a convention and will flip superdelegates to Bernie because he polls better nationally. Yup....subverting actual votes because of hypothetical ones. Awkward clip below...
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DNC needs to be very careful about this one. If they get another centrist as VP, expect to see Bernie supports go 3rd party or just hold their noses and vote trump as a big FU.
There is a pretty strong anti-establishment streak in Bernie voters. Make no mistake, they will vote Trump if they don't like the candidates the DNC brings forward.
No one is voting for Trump solely because of being "anti-establishment." Trump embodies everything that Sanders has been rallying against since the first day of his campaign. Trump is the rich guy making money off of the backs of low income workers, and sending manufacturing jobs to Mexico (his entire clothing line is made there, he apparently trusts Mexicans to make his clothing.), getting rich off of shielding himself through bankruptcies that protect him from any actual fiscal responsibility (while a 25 year old with 80K in student loan debt can't claim bankruptcy or even negotiate a lower interest rate for said debt).
Trump is anti-establishment, yes, but he's basically polar opposite of Sanders in every other way. Every Sanders supporter I know is basically in "whoever gets the Dem notmination" boat. Hillary isn't ideal--but she's essentially just the successor to Obama, and he honestly hasn't been a bad president. Sanders is the ideal, but I'll gladly vote Hillary come November.
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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Well I tend to think Bernie is the odd man out in that situation. He still has his strong left wing support, but that's a very low % of the Democratic vote (less than 20%). Whether his supporters want to accept this or not, he's being propped up a lot by her being the opponent. I don't think he breaks 30% if Biden is involved and it's a 3 way race, and that leaves him in the Kasich zone where he might win a state or two but is mostly irrelevant.
I think that had independents in NY been allowed to vote, this race would have gone much differently. Independents by and large have gone for Bernie throughout the US, and independents make up a large percentage of the electorate (for the full American population: dems 29%, repub 26% independent 42%).
That each state's primary rules are vastly different from other states seems very awkward to me, not to mention primary vs. caucus, states that don't even hold a primary or caucus, etc.
I don't know that most people had paid much attention to the primary process before this race, but I think it's a good way to draw attention to what a crapshow that system is.
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I think that had independents in NY been allowed to vote, this race would have gone much differently. Independents by and large have gone for Bernie throughout the US, and independents make up a large percentage of the electorate (for the full American population: dems 29%, repub 26% independent 42%).
That each state's primary rules are vastly different from other states seems very awkward to me, not to mention primary vs. caucus, states that don't even hold a primary or caucus, etc.
I don't know that most people had paid much attention to the primary process before this race, but I think it's a good way to draw attention to what a crapshow that system is.
I think if Bernie Sanders wanted to win a nomination process based almost entirely off independents...he should have ran as an independent where there are no party rules. But Bernie knew the rules (or if he didn't, is a moron) when he chose to run as a Dem. That he now wants to change them in the middle of the race to help him out is laughable. He's also won a couple closed primaries himself, and I don't remember him saying anything bad about them then.
The ironic part of the "independent" argument is that a significant amount of Bernie's support comes from people to the left of the Democratic Party, and a lot from people who choose to be independent so as not to be labeled, even though they back one party most of the time (mostly the Democratic Party). They pridefully chose not to align themselves with a political party... and now they're whining they've been excluded from the party process. Maybe if they just swallowed their pride and registered with Dems, who they vote for the most often anyway, things could have gone different. Pride, as always, ####s with you though.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
I think if Bernie Sanders wanted to win a nomination process based almost entirely off independents...he should have ran as an independent where there are no party rules. But Bernie knew the rules (or if he didn't, is a moron) when he chose to run as a Dem. That he now wants to change them in the middle of the race to help him out is laughable. He's also won a couple closed primaries himself, and I don't remember him saying anything bad about them then.
The ironic part of the "independent" argument is that a significant amount of Bernie's support comes from people to the left of the Democratic Party, and a lot from people who choose to be independent so as not to be labeled, even though they back one party most of the time (mostly the Democratic Party). They pridefully chose not to align themselves with a political party... and now they're whining they've been excluded from the party process. Maybe if they just swallowed their pride and registered with Dems, who they vote for the most often anyway, things could have gone different. Pride, as always, ####s with you though.
Yet again, there are states where you can, as an independent, vote for the primary. This race brought that discrepancy to the forefront.
Regardless of whether Sanders gets elected or not, his candidacy did a lot of good. It showed just how pervasive money is in politics, it showed that there is a strong progressive movement in this country that deserves representation, it showed just how monumentally disasterous our primary processes are, etc.
He's pulled Hillary left of where she typically stands and brought attention to issues that otherwise might've been ignored, which we desperately need. This country has pulled so far to the right that if we can just try to correct things back to center, it's a good thing.
The thing is most "independents" aren't really independent. They're just not registered with either political party. Which is to say they may be independent of official registration but that doesn't make them non-partisan and guys running as independents generally take a exceedingly small fraction of the vote.
Fact is that most independents are Democrats and Republicans in everything but name.
DNC needs to be very careful about this one. If they get another centrist as VP, expect to see Bernie supports go 3rd party or just hold their noses and vote trump as a big FU.
There is a pretty strong anti-establishment streak in Bernie voters. Make no mistake, they will vote Trump if they don't like the candidates the DNC brings forward.
When Hillary wins she'll get the unreserved support from Bernie for the six months of the campaign, that's the difference between the Dems and the GOP.
I could see some left wingers staying home but they ain't voting for Trump, and frankly most of them will be so frightened by an absolute loon in charge of the worlds most powerful nuclear arsenal they turn out for Hillary.
Protest voting is a lot easier when your not actually risking some idiot from the Monster Raving Loony party ending up in charge, the U.S. system encourages protest voting because of the primary process, it's risk free pissed offness, almost no one voting for Trump thinks he'll win or even wants him to win, they are supporting him precisely because he won't win.
Come the actual election we may see the smallest voter turn out in decades but it will be overwhelmingly for the sensible candidate, which is Hillary.
Yet again, there are states where you can, as an independent, vote for the primary. This race brought that discrepancy to the forefront.
Regardless of whether Sanders gets elected or not, his candidacy did a lot of good. It showed just how pervasive money is in politics, it showed that there is a strong progressive movement in this country that deserves representation, it showed just how monumentally disasterous our primary processes are, etc.
He's pulled Hillary left of where she typically stands and brought attention to issues that otherwise might've been ignored, which we desperately need. This country has pulled so far to the right that if we can just try to correct things back to center, it's a good thing.
Fully get the first point, but to me all primaries should be closed. Open primaries invite manipulation from outside the party. For instance if the Donald had already clinched the nomination before New York, and NY were an open primary, he could send every single one of his supporters into the open Dem primary to mess with that primary (likely to vote in the weakest general election candidate). Is that fair to the Democratic Party that Republicans could determine who wins their primaries? Obviously not. Parties are private, so restricting access sounds smart if anything. And it's not fully restrictive of course, people simply need to register and follow the rules.
Bernie has benefited significantly from who his opponent is. Exit polls continue to show most Dems want Obama's policies continued, or even less liberal policies from the next President. I also love the money point, because if anything Bernie has proven money doesn't matter. He outspent Hillary 2:1 in New York, and spent $9 for every vote he earned. By comparison, Trump spent 13 cents (!!!) for every vote he earned. Obviously spending lots of money got Bernie nowhere.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Fun Fact: There are 674 electable delegates left in the GOP race, it takes 1237 delegates to clinch the nomination, If Ted Cruz were to win 100% of all remaining delegates he would have 1218 delegates... 19 delegates short of the needed number.
The only candidate that has a mathematical path to the nomination without a contested convention is Trump.
IMO I think Trump is going to just break the threshold but it's obviously going to come down to the last day of the primary.
I hope he doesn't though just for the sure chaos that's going to unfold because he's almost assuredly going into the convention with more delegates then all the others combined leaving the first round of voting in the hands of the unpledged delegates. Madness, lawsuits great fun all around.
When Hillary wins she'll get the unreserved support from Bernie for the six months of the campaign, that's the difference between the Dems and the GOP.
I could see some left wingers staying home but they ain't voting for Trump, and frankly most of them will be so frightened by an absolute loon in charge of the worlds most powerful nuclear arsenal they turn out for Hillary.
Protest voting is a lot easier when your not actually risking some idiot from the Monster Raving Loony party ending up in charge, the U.S. system encourages protest voting because of the primary process, it's risk free pissed offness, almost no one voting for Trump thinks he'll win or even wants him to win, they are supporting him precisely because he won't win.
Come the actual election we may see the smallest voter turn out in decades but it will be overwhelmingly for the sensible candidate, which is Hillary.
A couple points - Unfavorable numbers for both candidates are at almost unprecedented levels. Trump is hated more than Hillary, but not by much. I think people are underestimating the amount of disdain and hatred people have for Hillary. You saw it in full swing during the campaign - backtracking and changing positions constantly - I think she changed her stance on universal health care twice. People just don't trust her.
There is a sentiment out there that Trump is really just hiding his true colors and given his past ties with the DNC, he is going to come out during the general election with more favorable platforms (such as universal health care) and that lots of the things he is saying really are just to get the crazies on board to carry him through the primary. Whether or not this is grounded in reality is another story, but the feeling is out there.
Trump is also somewhat anti-free trade. If he continues to talk about ripping up trade deals and promising universal health care, that will swing some Bernie voters. At minimum, he takes some of the Occupy crowd with those types of positions.
I guess we'll see. But I think there are plenty of young voters who feel disenfranchised based on the way the primaries have played out and how the deck has been stacked against Bernie and will say "Fine, f--- it, time to burn down the house, it's the only way they will listen".
But the thing about Bernie supporters going nuclear and voting for Trump is that ignores that Trump is a mega liability to the GOP as both the nominee and downticket. With a Trump/Hillary matchup, a hypothetical poll has her winning Georgia and within the margin of error in Mississippi. Yes, Trump is so toxic he could cost them core deep south States. Bernie would basically need ALL of his supporters to vote Trump, and watching progressives vote for one the most regressive candidates ever in the ultimate "Take my ball and go home" (or more to the point, take my ball, go home, and cut my wrists) moment would be the ultimate cap on this bizarro election.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
But the thing about Bernie supporters going nuclear and voting for Trump is that ignores that Trump is a mega liability to the GOP as both the nominee and downticket. With a Trump/Hillary matchup, a hypothetical poll has her winning Georgia and within the margin of error in Mississippi. Yes, Trump is so toxic he could cost them core deep south States. Bernie would basically need ALL of his supporters to vote Trump, and watching progressives vote for one the most regressive candidates ever in the ultimate "Take my ball and go home" (or more to the point, take my ball, go home, and cut my wrists) moment would be the ultimate cap on this bizarro election.
And who exactly does Trump pick as a VP? the party hates him, he's pretty well toxic after this is over so he's going to have to pick someone as weird as him, Palin or The like.
Hillary can carefully pick someone who firms up a weakness, progressive Latino I would assume.
Well I hope Chris Christie didn't sell his soul to not at least get the VP nod. But yeah that's a horrible VP selection, it also has high career suicide potential that will scare away anyone decent.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Bernie's campaign manager made an ass of himself last night, saying that even if they lose the pledged count and the popular vote, they still will go to a convention and will flip superdelegates to Bernie because he polls better nationally. Yup....subverting actual votes because of hypothetical ones. Awkward clip below...
Well Bernie beats every GOP candidate in polls, while Hillary only beats two out of three, so there is some truth to nominating the most electable candidate.
