2016 NHL Draft Simulator

[Flames Draft Watcher]

yeah 3rd last is the realistic sweet spot in terms of odds and where you'd end up worst case scenario.

[squiggs96]

It's absolutely riveting to read what teams come up after you hit buttons. Keep them coming! I often take an interest in what the 4th simulation for each person is. That's the one that matters most. I likely won't watch games anymore this season and will just be in this thread pressing F5.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

It's absolutely riveting to read what teams come up after you hit buttons. Keep them coming! I often take an interest in what the 4th simulation for each person is. That's the one that matters most. I likely won't watch games anymore this season and will just be in this thread pressing F5.

It is an odd thread. To be fair, what exactly were you expecting when you opened it?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

It is an odd thread. To be fair, what exactly were you expecting when you opened it?

I wasn't quite sure.

Curly Bad Boy Lee

[Iniggywetrust]

It almost depresses me to see how often we fall out of the top 5. It had to be this year that the rules change. I blame the oilers!

[polak]

Yeah that sucks.

I ran it 14 times and only once did we win, almost all of the other times we picked 5th or worst.

Boo this.

If we don't get a good pick then this was a gigantic waste of a season.

[Trailer Fire]

Out of 15 runs, Calgary drafted 1st 4 times, 2nd 3 times and 3rd 4 times. Not bad.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by polak

Yeah that sucks.

I ran it 14 times and only once did we win, almost all of the other times we picked 5th or worst.

Boo this.

If we don't get a good pick then this was a gigantic waste of a season.

You and I must have the same random number generator

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Perhaps we should bump this thread for people's daily run of their own simulator results so Bingo's threads can be about his result?

[AC]

I don't get running the simulator so many times.

All you're doing is slowly approaching the actual statistical odds! What's the point? It's not going to result in some actual new information.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by AC

I don't get running the simulator so many times.

All you're doing is slowly approaching the actual statistical odds! What's the point? It's not going to result in some actual new information.

I use Tankathon's. It shows how many places a team moves up/down unlike the other one. It's lacking the % finishes that the main one features - but maybe that's for the best.


http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Plus, being super lazy, I like that you can just click one place over and over rather than moving my cursor back and forth.

[mile]

Ugh.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I use Tankathon's. It shows how many places a team moves up/down unlike the other one. It's lacking the % finishes that the main one features - but maybe that's for the best.


http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Plus, being super lazy, I like that you can just click one place over and over rather than moving my cursor back and forth.

No, I meant I just don't understand the appeal of running a simulator constantly. Like those that run it 100 times here. If you do that, you should have pretty close results to the actual odds.

Run it 1000, and you'll be even closer!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by AC

No, I meant I just don't understand the appeal of running a simulator constantly. Like those that run it 100 times here. If you do that, you should have pretty close results to the actual odds.

Run it 1000, and you'll be even closer!

You should have results close to the odds. But there's still quite a bit of randomness in a 100 run sample size. Look at mine where EDM wins the #1 pick twice as many times as TOR even though TOR has better odds.

I think people run it 100 times for fun, for boredom, for interest. Who cares.

[AC]

Oh for sure, it can be a fun waste of time.

I find the actual interesting part is with a random result, trying to think how the draft selections would then unfold for example.

I just think it's a little funny when some talk about running the simulator as if they're doing some down-and-dirty science when we already know the 100% accurate statistical odds. There's nothing else left to discover mathematically.

[shadowlord]

Ran it about 6-10 times to get this. I like 'em odds.

[1qqaaz]

I feel like Toronto and Vancouver fans would be the most devastated by a bad lottery outcome. They really want/need young stars to build their teams around, and this draft can't be taken lightly.

Calgary, on the other hand, already has a young core and will be fine with anyone they pick in the top 8. I have to admit, it's kind of nice not having to worry too much about the lottery. If we do win the one of the lottery slots, and end up picking over Vancouver, we'd just be taking an even larger leap ahead of them in terms of the future. It's kind of exciting.

It's interesting how much the simulation results vary even after 100 tries. I'm surprised how many simulations it really takes to move towards the statistical odds. This doesn't really mean anything, but yeah.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Ran it about 6-10 times to get this. I like 'em odds.

That would be positively orgasmic

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

That would be positively orgasmic

I would happily take that.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Ran it about 6-10 times to get this. I like 'em odds.

Replace Winnipeg with Columbus. That's it. Otherwise this is the best outcome.