The PK: Coaching vs. Goaltending

[driveway]

The season has not been kind to the Flames. There is debate about exactly the causes of this, the most commonly cited culprits are, in no particular order: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, and Special Teams.

I personally can't think of a good way to settle the debate, but I thought taking a specific look at the Penalty Kill might help in the argument between Coaching and Goaltending. I think this is a good measure because success on the PK depends on the interplay between a system (coaching) and good goaltending.

On the face of it, the Flames have an objectively terrible PK. League-worst 73.7%, league-worst shorthanded save percentage .825. Looks like goaltending may be the culprit, but if we dig a little deeper, we might find something else.

The Flames are very good at staying out of the penalty box. There has been something of a change in this trend since the Wideman incident, but overall the Flames have only been shorthanded 179 times this season, this is the 4th least amount of times. However, our abysmal performance has led to us allowing the 4th most total goals.

Our low-number of penalties has led to an overall relatively low number of shots against. We've faced the 5th least total shots on the PK, and the 6th least shot-attempts (corsi). This is in-line with expectations based on our 4th lowest number of times shorthanded. This leads me to believe that our struggle has less to do with our PK system and again, seems to point to poor goaltending.

However, this view changes a little if you look at Scoring Chances and High Danger Scoring Chances Against (per War-on-Ice). We're only 15th in suppressing Scoring Chances and we have allowed the 5th most High-Danger Scoring Chances against total, despite the relatively low number of total shooting attempts we've faced on the PK. It is also called into question if we look at SA/60 where the Flames allow the 8th most SA per 60 minutes of PK time. It's starting to look less like we're getting particularly bad goaltending on the PK and a little more like we're not executing an effective PK system.

So far, these stats don't seem to be clarifying the picture a lot. There seems to be argument either way: In total, the Flames have faced a number of shots in line with their PK time, pointing to bad goaltending; but those shots seem to be of an inordinately high quality, pointing to a bad system.

Taking the goalies as individuals, however, something does emerge. Namely the utter catastrophe that has been Jonas Hiller. Considering that all three of our goalies have had exactly the same players playing exactly the same system in front of them, large differences in performance can, I think, be safely attributed to the individual.

Shorthanded, Ramo has faces 121 shots, Ortio 33, and Hiller 103. Ramo and Ortio have posted .860 and .851 save percentages. Both of these numbers are better than the Flames' team save percentage of .825. These numbers are not great, but they aren't terrible. They're better than Dubnyk (.833), Lundkvist (.835), and Rinne (.836). Split the difference and the Flames have a .856 save percentage on the PK. This would tie us with Winnipeg for 20th in the league, would drop our Goals-Against from 45 to 37, and raise our overall PK numbers from 73.7% to 79.2% and we'd be 22nd instead of 30th.

So what happened?

Jonas ####ing Hiller happened.

He's allowed 23 goals on 103 shots for a save-percentage of .777. .777! Only Garrett Sparks and Andrew Hammond are worse and they've faced an identical number of shots combined as Hiller has. Hiller is particularly atrocious with what war-on-ice terms "medium danger shots". On these shots, Ortio has a .868 and Ramo a .925. They both have better numbers than their overall save percentage. On medium-danger-shots Hiller has a .708. .708!! Are you kidding me? Only Hammond is worse in the entire NHL. Switch Hiller for Ortio on these shots alone and you prevent 4 goals and lift our PK out of the basement to merely 4th worst.

To sum up: our PK has problems. The horribleness of our PP lends support to the notion that there is a general problem with either our systems or our overall personnel. However, it has become clear to me that the specific struggles of our PK, the overall putrid nature of our shorthanded numbers, can be laid directly and unquestionably at the door of one Jonas Hiller. Singlehandedly he has sunk a below-average PK into the absolute sewer. His tremendously miserable performance behind exactly the same team as Ramo and Ortio gives me confidence saying that he can be held directly responsible for at least 3 missed points in the standings. Games like Feb 15th where we lost 6-4 to Anaheim and Hiller let in 3 PK goals on 7 shots. Or October 13th against the Blues where we lost 4-3 and Hiller let in 1PK goal on 1 shot.

Now, perhaps you want to thank Mr. Hiller for sinking us to the bottom of the league and improving our draft position. Others - myself included - would question the coaching staff who would throw this bag of hammers out onto the ice over and over again, but I will say that is has altered my overall position on the coaching staff. I was personally leaning towards replacing them all this offseason. However, taking a look at these numbers makes me want to give them another crack at it and hope they play some goaltenders who aren't as miserably bad as a Wile E. Coyote rocket-skate meal plan.

Jonas Hiller: The Living Worst.

[Jay Random]

I don't for a moment blame ‘the coaching staff who would throw this bag of hammers out onto the ice’. Those hammers are all they've got. The Flames' defencemen in particular are offensively gifted (except for Engelland), but lack the size and toughness to be equally effective defensively. The forwards are no great shakes defensively, either. There is no Robyn Regehr on the blue line, no Stephane Yelle at forward.

I'd question whether any coach could come up with an effective PK system given the personnel available.

[Da_Chief]

Was it goaltending last year when the PK was ranked 21st? If you look at last few years the PK has been getting worse every year. Part of that goaltending but part of that is also opponents making adjustments while Flames coaching staff is stagnant.

[Jay Random]

If you look at the last few years, the best penalty killers have been steadily disappearing from the roster.

[Erick Estrada]

What does goaltending have to do with the 29th ranked powerplay? As Greg Millen said on yesterday's broadcast the coaching in regards to special teams have to be addressed in the offseason for this team as they will not improve as long as the special teams are as bad as this.

[badger89]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If you look at the last few years, the best penalty killers have been steadily disappearing from the roster.

Exactly. We're really missing Byron on the PK.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Was it goaltending last year when the PK was ranked 21st? If you look at last few years the PK has been getting worse every year. Part of that goaltending but part of that is also opponents making adjustments while Flames coaching staff is stagnant.

The answers were right there in the OP.

Last year, the PK was 21st, as you say. THis year, with Ramo and Ortio, the PK is tied for 20th.

That isn't great, but it isn't terrible. As long as you're in the middle 3rd, PK isn't hurting you.

The difference from last year to this year, the drop from 21st to 30th, can be entirely explained by the difference in Hiller's SP vs the other two goalies.

Pretty straight-forward.

So the next issue then becomes: how do we get from 20th up into the top 10?

Suggestions: get bigger, especially defensively, and don't be so passive - I would rather see a more aggressive PK than what we have.

[puffnstuff]

Warning: thread derailing imminent
I really wish the NHL would change how they calculate PP and PK percentages. A 10 second PP, because a player took a penalty 10 seconds after a PP starts, counts the same as a full 5 minute major.
Go to a GF or GA per minute of PP/PK time instead.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If you look at the last few years, the best penalty killers have been steadily disappearing from the roster.

Frolik was supposed to be an elite penalty killer.

[heep223]

Nm

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I don't for a moment blame ‘the coaching staff who would throw this bag of hammers out onto the ice’. Those hammers are all they've got. The Flames' defencemen in particular are offensively gifted (except for Engelland), but lack the size and toughness to be equally effective defensively. The forwards are no great shakes defensively, either. There is no Robyn Regehr on the blue line, no Stephane Yelle at forward.

I'd question whether any coach could come up with an effective PK system given the personnel available.

Toughness is the least of anyone's worry on the PK. Its about positioning.

St. Louis has the 2nd best PK and the play Jay Bouwmeester/Kevin Shattenkirk/Alex Pietrangelo for most of the PK. None of those guys are physical.

Montreal is 5th best with Subban/Markov/Petry as their top 3 (and Emelin is used as their 4th PK dman).

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by badger89

Exactly. We're really missing Byron on the PK.

Our PK was in the toilet for the first half of last year too, while Byron was healthy. It steadily improved throughout the second half to the point where it finally got over 80%. Most of this improvement occurred while Byron was injured.

I think the OP has it exactly right. This is ALL on Hiller and his spectacular decline year over year. The numbers he posted are irrefutable.

[GranteedEV]

Ironically enough, where we've missed "ennis" Wi""eman is on the Penalty Kill.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Ironically enough, where we've missed "ennis" Wi""eman is on the Penalty Kill.

haha because there is no D! Thanks Jason Portuondo.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

haha because there is no D! Thanks Jason Portuondo.

God, I hated that guy. So glad he isappeared.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Hiller is definitely guilty of dropping the PK stats several placements, but the trouble doesn't end there. Our D has been inconsistent at times and I don't think the players are as willing to block shots as they were last season.

Bottom line is we we've had terrible goaltending for over half the games this season. Offensive teams need to make up for it by having good powerplay numbers. For some reason this offensive team with the likes of Gaudreau, Brodie, Monahan, Giordano, Hamilton, Bennett have the worst powerplay in the league.

You cannot excuse that on goaltending and I believe someone in management needs to answer for this. Fire Gelinas and bring in a special teams coach that can teach the Flames an effective system that compliments their core players. Hartley has shown inability to change and adapt.

Not for one second will I believe all these players forget how to cycle every time they are playing with a man advantage.

[Bingo]

any time a debate about goaltending comes up I kind of interject the same point.;

Goaltending transcends goaltending. When you're goaltending is weak players start playing differently than they would when they trust their goaltender. They alter their game to prevent all shots which takes them out of position and creates breakdowns that would suggest goaltending wasn't the problem.

There's not trust there (though Ortio may be building) and it's clear by their lack of control in their game this season.

[Textcritic]

The thing about special teams that needs to be considered is that they can fluctuate wildly for a team from year to year for no obvious reason. Last season the Ducks had the 28th-ranked power play, but are 1st this year. LA is top-five this year: in the past two seasons they ranked 10th, and 27th. Last year the Islanders had a 26th-ranked penalty kill, and this season they are ranked 1st. This year the Minnesota Wild have the 28th-ranked penalty kill, but last year were ranked 1st.

All that to say, while I agree that poor goaltending has really hurt the Flames' PK this season, I am not at all convinced that a coaching change will make any sort of tangible difference. I think that the Flames special teams will be much better next year whether there are new coaches overseeing them or not. I think that consistently great special teams have more to do with player chemistry that develops over a long period of familiarity, combined with confidence over the course of a season that also develops with success. The Flames have the personnel to have a terrific power play one day, and it will happen regardless of whoever is coaching. If the Flames find a consistently good goaltender, their penalty kill will be much better than it was this year, regardless of whoever is coaching the team.

[Erick Estrada]

We ridiculed Oilers fans for blaming goaltending for their woes for years. Flames fans could see the Oilers issues were deeper than goaltending so why are Flames fans so willing to overlook a team issue and blame their issues on goaltending alone?

[CMPunk]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

We ridiculed Oilers fans for blaming goaltending for their woes for years. Flames fans could see the Oilers issues were deeper than goaltending so why are Flames fans so willing to overlook a team issue and blame their issues on goaltending alone?

Because Hiller!!!!