Cap World, Drafting for Need and BPA?

[Enoch Root]

I agree with getbak and CliffFletcher

While trading from positions of strength for positions of weakness is obviously part of the strategy of building a team, the fact is that, for top guys - core guys - trades are rare and difficult.

When there is a clear BPA, you simply half to take them (or trade down). But when it's close, position definitely should matter.

Acquire as many assets as you can, and the best quality possible.

But it is also a good idea to try to maintain some degree of balance in the organization.

Hate to always use them as an example, but look how much trouble Edmonton is having trying to fix their imbalanced lineup.

[SofaProfessor]

If you decide that you want to draft for a specific position and not go BPA, you can't be going off the board in the first round. You need to trade down or else you're wasting a valuable asset in the pick you currently hold.

I also think forwards are the only players you can draft for based on position if you're looking for help in the near future. Seeing defenders or goalies step into the league the year after being drafted and playing regularly at an NHL level is pretty rare. A few guys do it but they're the exception, not the rule.

You could have a big organizational need for a puck moving RD at the moment but, if you were to draft a guy that fits that description, he likely won't be a regular NHLer for 3 to 5 years and a lot can change in that time frame.

tl;dr - BPA should always be the rule. Draft for position only up front and trade down if the player that fits your positional needs isn't BPA.

[Tinordi]

I feel like this thread is a way to discuss the question: should the Flames draft Auston Matthews if they have the 1st overall pick?

My answer would be yes. He's the clear BPA.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I feel like this thread is a way to discuss the question: should the Flames draft Auston Matthews if they have the 1st overall pick?

My answer would be yes. He's the clear BPA.

Yeah, the one place in the draft that there is almost always a clear BPA is 1st overall.

But I would still like to see what the offers are for trading down to 2nd or 3rd.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yakupov.

The EDM scouts didn't even think Yakupov was the best player available. Not a great example.

[Inglewood Jack]

why is taking a Finn at #1 even an option worth discussing? even if the Flames themselves rank Pulju or Laine above Matthews (which I sincerely hope they don't), you basically have a near 100% chance of getting those wingers with even the 3rd pick. so if you have #1, you downgrade with a trade and enjoy your new winger with a serious bonus tacked on.

grabbing a Finn at #1 while ignoring Matthews' value to other teams would be such ridiculous mismanagement of draft assets, the Saddledome would spontaneously implode from the vacuum created by the absence of logic.

[Ashasx]

I really don't see how Nashville could have justified taking Monahan or Lindholm over Jones at the time of the draft.

For 90% of the year, Jones was considered to be the #2 after MacKinnon. There was a clear drop in quality after the big 4.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by getbak

It's interesting that people have brought up Nashville drafting Jones and trading him for Johansen as an example in favour of taking BPA over positional need.

What if Columbus hadn't been looking to move Johansen this year? Nashville would still be a team looking for a young Centre while having an abundance of Defencemen. Meanwhile, in 2013, when it was Nashville's turn to pick, there were still two big top-level Centres still on the board

Johansen went 4th overall in 2010. The year after his Draft, he went back to the WHL for one more year. The following year, he went pro and scored 21 points in 67 games with Columbus. The year after that was the lockout, so Johansen split the year between the AHL and NHL. In the NHL, he put up 12 points in 40 games.

Three seasons after he was drafted, Johansen had a total of 33 points in 107 NHL games. Johansen was almost a year younger at the Draft than Monahan and Lindholm, so you could include his third pro season to get the numbers at a comparable age. In his third pro season, he had 63 points in 82 games, for a total of 96 in 189 games.

For comparison, in the three seasons since the 2013 Draft: Lindholm has 91 points in 204 NHL games; and Monahan has 140 in 218 games. Plus, there's still a quarter of the season left.

This season, combined between Columbus and Nashville, Johansen has 43 points in 62 games (as a 23 year-old). Monahan has 44 points in 62 games (as a 21 year-old).

The argument could be made that Nashville would have been better off drafting for position and taking either Lindholm or Monahan than they were drafting Jones and getting lucky that Columbus was looking to move a young top-level Centre two years later.

Interesting argument. That was an insanely deep draft so the centres available were better than the centres available at the same spot in weaker drafts. That said Jones was thought of as a generational defenseman.

We know Jones for RNH was possible and I'm sure if you crunch his #'s they are better than Johansen but he does lack the size Johansen has. If NSH put enough pressure may they have been able to swap Jones for Draisaitl? We'll never know.

I still maintain Jones's trade value league wide was massive. You may disagree that Johansen is the guy they should have been targeting but its obvious he wasn't the only young skilled centre that was offered up for Jones. I still think their decision to take Jones was correct, he was ranked as high as #1.

Poile said after the draft they had Jones rated #1.

[Strange Brew]

I think it's fair to say you have to balance your draft picks by position, player type etc. If you determine the BPA is a big physical defenceman every time it's your turn to draft, you're probably not building a god team over the long run. You can't rely solely on your ability to trade those players into other needed assets since as mentioned, the hockey player trade market is not like a commodities market. It's more than just preference, it's building a system of prospects that can ultimately lead to a winning NHL squad.

[GranteedEV]

Re: Getback. It's a fair argument. But I'd wager there's been an upper-tier centre traded once every handful of years. Johansen(2016), Seguin(2013), Carter, Dubinsky etc. I'm sure there would have been a player available besides Johansen, probably not as good as Johansen, that they still could have turned into a fair value trade. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, as much as we egg on him, would look pretty decent with Josi and Weber and Ellis and Ekholm behind him.

I contend that the most important thing is getting the best player you can. Monahan... what if they projected that he would be an 18G / 25A center? I know a lot of us would have thought that was a realistic projection in summer 2013. And I'm sure Seth Jones projected as more of a 15G / 40A defenseman.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Hate to always use them as an example, but look how much trouble Edmonton is having trying to fix their imbalanced lineup.

That's because their BPA was wrong, not because they didn't draft by position. People always point to Yakupov over the handful of dmen available at that time but they also took Yakupov over Galchenyuk or Forsberg, two forwards that were highly rated at the time and have turned out better. Add to that how much they've mismanaged their roster.

Think for a second they "could" have a defense core, right now, of:

Sekera-Ristolainen
Klefbom-Petry
Gustafsson-Davidson
Fayne

Dubnyk

All of a sudden that don't look so bad. Instead they drafted Nurse ahead of Risto, they undervalued Petry, and they didn't even sign their own stud draft pick Gustafsson, who the Blackhawks have played with positive results on their middle pair.

[Vinny01]

It will be interesting to see what the Flsmes do if they land the Matthews pick. I would like them to explore trading it to Arizona and see how badly they want their homegrown superstar. I suspect ownership there see Matthews as a guy they build the franchise around and could be poised to pay an absolute premium for him (more than any other team typically would give up for a 1st overall)

Hypothetically could the Flames trade thst pick+ a contract or 2 of their choice they want to dump for a package that includes Strome+the yotes 1st+Domi?

Perhaps the Flames add to that deal depending where Arizona picks (currently 7th overall). Instead of Domi maybe the flames get another top prospect from the Yotes? To me Strome+1st is not enough but adding Domi seems like too much.

Either way I think it would be worth exploring if we are lucky enough to get the pick

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Think for a second they "could" have a defense core, right now, of:

Sekera-Ristolainen
Klefbom-Petry
Gustafsson-Davidson
Fayne

Dubnyk

All of a sudden that don't look so bad. Instead they drafted Nurse ahead of Risto, they undervalued Petry, and they didn't even sign their own stud draft pick Gustafsson, who the Blackhawks have played with positive results on their middle pair.

They could have had Ryan Murray, Jacob Trouba, or Morgan Rielly in addition to those defensemen. They could be relatively set on the backend if they hadn't botched the Yakupov draft and didn't give up on Petry and Gustafsson.

[Enoch Root]

In other words, if they had done a better job of drafting various positions and styles, in a more balanced way, they would be much better off right now.

[JJsChaos]

I'd always draft best available player with my first round and possibly 2 round pick(s). I think the later rounds are used more for need.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In other words, if they had done a better job of drafting various positions and styles, in a more balanced way, they would be much better off right now.

Well it comes right back down to the point of the thread.

If the Oilers actually had drafted BPA and had competent management they'd be in a pretty good position.

Instead for most of their time they've gone with MFFA (Most Flashy Forward Available) and incompetent management.

[Vinny01]

Hard to say thenOilers didn't draft BPA. They took the consensus top pick with all 4 of their number 1's. With the picks they took outside of number 1 in those 6 years they drafted for need with Nurse in 2013 and Draisaitl in 2014 even though they could have taken higher ranked players like Nikushkin or Bennett

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well it comes right back down to the point of the thread.

If the Oilers actually had drafted BPA and had competent management they'd be in a pretty good position.

Instead for most of their time they've gone with MFFA (Most Flashy Forward Available) and incompetent management.

This debate has been had a hundred times... the only guy you can make a real case of for them not taking BPA was Yakupov.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This debate has been had a hundred times... the only guy you can make a real case of for them not taking BPA was Yakupov.

I've pointed out pretty clearly in this thread why Yakupov and Nurse weren't BPA according to their own scouts.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I've pointed out pretty clearly in this thread why Yakupov and Nurse weren't BPA according to their own scouts.

Nurse is highly debatable, and went pretty much where he was ranked. I believe Mackenzie had him at 7 (i.e. his consensus poll)

Anyway whatever. I think Nurse was a fine pick and one of the few they got right (because they desperately needed a Dman)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well it comes right back down to the point of the thread.



If the Oilers actually had drafted BPA and had competent management they'd be in a pretty good position.



Instead for most of their time they've gone with MFFA (Most Flashy Forward Available) and incompetent management.

You know what? I think the cautionary tale in all of this is for teams to avoid the trap of perpetual lottery picks. The Oilers are incompetent, but what has really screwed them has been all the #1 draft picks. It is uncommon for defensemen to be the top rated player heading in to the draft, and even in spite of the Oilers' incompetence this has worked against them in a big way.

I think that the Oilers are the only exception to the rule, and this is because they have had so many absurdly high picks in consecutive years. For virtually every other NHL team that will not draft in the top-3 for a full decade they should always select BPA, and will be just fine.