When is our rebuild no longer a rebuild?

[ScorchyScorch]

Playoffs in consecutive years. That would be my definition of non-rebuilding. You'd then be a "competitive team". When the team makes the conference finals then you're knocking on the door of "contender".

[ScorchyScorch]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

When statistically, the Flames are better than each of:

50% score-adjusted Corsi
50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
20th ranked PP

We will no longer be a team that can use re-building as an excuse.

That's the stupidest explanation of a non-rebuilding team I've ever seen.

You must be like Neo in the matrix. You don't see the ice, nor the players, nor the plays. Just numbers, trickling down everywhere. Except you're way, way less cool and you can't fly. Know why?? Cause advanced stats don't mean ####.

[IgiTang]

From the rebuild Model up north, not until we have 4 or 5 1st overall picks playing in the NHL.. Then it's no longer considered a rebuild.. Right? Oh wait.. They're still rebuilding.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ScorchyScorch

That's the stupidest explanation of a non-rebuilding team I've ever seen.

You must be like Neo in the matrix. You don't see the ice, nor the players, nor the plays. Just numbers, trickling down everywhere. Except you're way, way less cool and you can't fly. Know why?? Cause advanced stats don't mean ####.

Just because I choose not to be afraid of and ignorant of a few stats that highlight underlying performance you're that threatened? Lol.

Hint: Using stats doesn't mean a person can't see what's going on past the stats. Not using stats however, does show that a person refuses to acknowledge what the stats indicate.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just because I choose not to be afraid of and ignorant of a few stats that highlight underlying performance you're that threatened? Lol.

Hint: Using stats doesn't mean a person can't see what's going on past the stats. Not using stats however, does show that a person refuses to acknowledge what the stats indicate.

Nope. One or the other. If you watch the game you can't see numbers and if you look at the numbers you're not watching the game.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just because I choose not to be afraid of and ignorant of a few stats that highlight underlying performance you're that threatened? Lol.

Hint: Using stats doesn't mean a person can't see what's going on past the stats. Not using stats however, does show that a person refuses to acknowledge what the stats indicate.

Who here is "not using stats"? Just because you are the only person in this discussion who has chosen an arbitrary metric to determine your position does not mean that everyone else has ignored them. The rest of us do not find your position remotely compelling for the varia of reasons already outlined above.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just because I choose not to be afraid of and ignorant of a few stats that highlight underlying performance you're that threatened? Lol.

Hint: Using stats doesn't mean a person can't see what's going on past the stats. Not using stats however, does show that a person refuses to acknowledge what the stats indicate.

You seem to be missing a crucial detail and is the reason many people cannot stand advanced stat enthusiasts. Please try to follow this next statement which I'm sure has been brought up a dozen times already.

Advanced Stats are great in context. They are great as a support tool. They are NOT meant to be taken as gospel and should never be used as key evidence for quantifying ANYTHING.

It's people like you that make the advanced statistic community look like a bunch of idiots. There's more to it than looking at how high or low a number is. The numbers do tell a story, but you're not telling a very accurate story with them.

Not sure what else I can say that hasn't already been said a billion times.

[Jason14h]

Playoffs in consecutive years. That would be my definition of non-rebuilding. You'd then be a "competitive team". When the team makes the conference finals then you're knocking on the door of "contender"

I think a point is being missed here.

There is a difference between a successful rebuild and a team no longer rebuilding.

The Flames essentially have their top 6 players penciled in for the next 5 years. (7 if we include this years draft choice/best case)

To me that signals the rebuild is over. That's the core. We've paid them. We've committed to them.

Of course the team will try to surround them with better players, but every team is trying to do this.

If your team doesn't know who/can't identify the 5-6 core players you are rebuilding.

[Jason14h]

They are NOT meant to be taken as gospel and should never be used as key evidence for quantifying ANYTHING.

Never be used as key evidence? Isn't that as naive as saying they should always be used?

So many people here sound like MLB pre 2010! Stupid TB and their shifting, my eyes tell me it is a dumb idea.

[northcrunk]

MLB and Hockey are two different sports. FYI.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Who here is "not using stats"? Just because you are the only person in this discussion who has chosen an arbitrary metric to determine your position does not mean that everyone else has ignored them. The rest of us do not find your position remotely compelling for the varia of reasons already outlined above.

Everything in this thread is arbitrary. You're just singling mine out because it's presented via stats (and specifically, stats people here don't "like"). Let's see:

the year after, time to compete.

Arbitrary.

The rebuild is no longer a rebuild when we can reasonably expect to make the conference finals.

Arbitrary. Reasonable expectations are opinions and depend on who you're asking.

When the Flames make playoffs two consecutive years

Two? Why not four? Arbitrary.

When the team is considered a contender

Abitrary. Depends on who is doing the "considering".

5 years from start to perennial playoff team.....that would make it the 2017-2018 season give or take.

5 years? Arbitrary timeline.

50% score-adjusted Corsi
50% scored-adjusted Fenwick
20th ranked PP

Abitrary? Sure. More arbitrary than any of the others?

we must be around the top 10 in the league in 3 of following 4 stats:

Goals For
Goals Against
PP%
PK%

So I guess 11th in the league in goals for is not good enough, because that's not arbitrary.

1.5 seasons

Arbitrary.

When the Flames can realistically contend for the division title, beat good teams on a regular basis, and learn to hang onto leads. When they do that for 2 years in a row, I'll believe it's done.

Why 2 years in a row and not 7?

When we get some real goaltending and a power forward

"real" goaltending and "power" forward are not arbitrary?

.....yeah. Explain to me why the arbitrary nature of my post is so bothersome to you. OP is literally asking when a rebuild is not a rebuild. Newsflash: The concept of rebuilding is inherently arbitrary.

You seem to be missing a crucial detail and is the reason many people cannot stand advanced stat enthusiasts.

Do me a favor, and petition Bingo to make advanced stats enthusiasm against CP Rules. Majority Rules That What You Can't Stand Should Be Eliminated Just Because You Can't Stand It.

Advanced Stats are great in context. They are great as a support tool. They are NOT meant to be taken as gospel and should never be used as key evidence for quantifying ANYTHING.

That whole second sentence is contradictory to the first and second. And no one is taking anything as gospel other than "advanced stats don't mean ####." That's the only gospel.

It's people like you that make the advanced statistic community look like a bunch of idiots. There's more to it than looking at how high or low a number is. The numbers do tell a story, but you're not telling a very accurate story with them.

Do tell me what "people like me" do to make "the advanced statistic community look like a bunch of idiots" other than "people like you" want to believe "the entire advanced statistic community are inherently a bunch of idiots"

[Jason14h]

MLB and Hockey are two different sports. FYI.

And so is NFL, and that hasn't stopped Cleveland from investing a ton of $$ in analytical personal this offseason.

Just because they are different sports, means analytics can not be applied to both?

But thank you, I did know they are different sports!

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Never be used as key evidence? Isn't that as naive as saying they should always be used?

So many people here sound like MLB pre 2010! Stupid TB and their shifting, my eyes tell me it is a dumb idea.

If I said they should never be used it would be as naive as saying they should always be used. Damn you have one thick skull...

They should be used as supporting evidence. You shouldn't come to a conclusion about anything because of a single number. If you are seeing specific results and have advanced stats to back up why the results are the way they are, then that's fine. That's how these stats are meant to be used.

The way Granteed is using these stats are absolutely horrendous. Especially since there are so many exceptions to what he quantifies as a playoff team.

And I'm going to pretend you didn't just compare advanced stats of MLB to NHL. There's no Moneyball solution to the NHL cap world.

[northcrunk]

Making the playoffs two years in a row is a pretty good metric for determining if a team is closer to ending a rebuild than starting one. However, many teams work a hybrid system to keep them competitive in the long term instead of having a great 5 year run and having to tear down again.

It's hard to do in the NHL but it seems like a trend. GMs see what happened in EDM and it is the last thing they want. Good drafting will save a franchise from having to go scortched earth like EDM.

I really don't think there is 1 thing that indicates if a team is done rebuilding but should be seen in the context they are in. Also advanced stats are good as a companion to all other stats as well as watching how a player plays. People get pissed off at the advanced stats evangelists because they ram them down throats as if they are the do all end all and constantly bring up MLB as evidence that they work.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

And so is NFL, and that hasn't stopped Cleveland from investing a ton of $$ in analytical personal this offseason.

Just because they are different sports, means analytics can not be applied to both?

But thank you, I did know they are different sports!

Do a quick google search and you'll see how dumb your comparison is.

[Jason14h]

Making the playoffs two years in a row is a pretty good metric for determining if a team is closer to ending a rebuild than starting one.

Not really. May determine a successful rebuild vs a non-successful rebuild.

[Jason14h]

There's no Moneyball solution to the NHL cap world

How do you know, because there isn't a book on it? Guess what before Oakland people thought the same thing is baseball, and did for years after their success.

Guess which team leads the hockey analytics revolution. CHICAGO! Last I checked they were pretty good.

http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=37366

Ever think Chicago is ahead of the game with analytics and uses it to determine which players to keep and let go, and in drafting?

But hey, I must be thick skulled and dumb because I showed an example of a sport where the EXACT same comments about advanced stats were being made less then a decade ago.

[northcrunk]

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

How do you know, because there isn't a book on it? Guess what before Oakland people thought the same thing is baseball, and did for years after their success.

Guess which team leads the hockey analytics revolution. CHICAGO! Last I checked they were pretty good.

http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=37366

Ever think Chicago is ahead of the game with analytics and uses it to determine which players to keep and let go, and in drafting?

But hey, I must be thick skulled and dumb because I showed an example of a sport where the EXACT same comments about advanced stats were being made less then a decade ago.

Chicago isn't leading the analytics revolution in hockey - they use internal analytics like every team does.

As for the comparison to baseball, it's pretty straight-forward: every event in baseball is separate and individual, and can be isolated, identified, tracked, and grouped for analysis.

Conversely, every event in hockey is part of an ongoing, multi-player, simultaneous set of actions that cannot (for the most part) be isolated. Tracking individual events in hockey is rife with difficulty because there is simply too much noise in every event, and too much influence from the other players.

Sure, we are moving toward a time when every pass, every step, every play will be tracked and cataloged. And at that time, there will be more and better information. But right now, the information is far too nebulous to be responsible for the conclusions that people like GranteedEV and CorsiHockeyLeague derive from it.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

How do you know, because there isn't a book on it? Guess what before Oakland people thought the same thing is baseball, and did for years after their success.

Guess which team leads the hockey analytics revolution. CHICAGO! Last I checked they were pretty good.

http://blackhawks.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=37366

Ever think Chicago is ahead of the game with analytics and uses it to determine which players to keep and let go, and in drafting?

But hey, I must be thick skulled and dumb because I showed an example of a sport where the EXACT same comments about advanced stats were being made less then a decade ago.

You want to know why the NHL and MLB are different? You probably love this word, as do all advanced stat homers.

Intangibles. Hockey is a game full of skills that can't be quantified by advanced stats. There are so many variables that the more you try to come up with an ultimate formula, the more convoluted and inaccurate everything becomes.

Do you think you can just take 23 players with the highest shooting percentage you can fit under the cap and become a contender? Because that sounds like the dumbest thing I've ever written.