Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[SeeGeeWhy]

Dave Mowat just released an announcement that the Royalty Review Report will be released Jan 29th, at 11:00am

[rubecube]

I don't get the whole argument that we're buying Saudi oil, so build the pipelines to stop that. The two seem unrelated to me. Unless we put in some crazy protectionist policies, we're still going to be buying oil from countries with poor human rights records regardless of our own oil production.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't get the whole argument that we're buying Saudi oil, so build the pipelines to stop that. The two seem unrelated to me. Unless we put in some crazy protectionist policies, we're still going to be buying oil from countries with poor human rights records regardless of our own oil production.

Lets give them less money. It's a pretty simple concept.

Any other product and we'd be all circle jerking to buy a product we produce here. But OIL ... BAD.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by GGG

The pipeline is worth about $3-$5 per barrel in reduced cost.

So the oil price required for economic production is $3-$5 higher if you have pipelines. So if there is available pipeline capacity no one will ship by rail. You would still have some rail shipping local to Alberta for small plants not currently on the pipeline network.

Even from a GHG perspective if you read the US EPA? I think report it talks about the pipeline impact on Oilsands production having 0 effect at an Oil Price above $70 per barrel. This report also didn't really consider that alternative oil would have to replace the oilsands at the Marginal barrel not the average barrel.

So the net affect of a pipeline on green house gases is that the economic viability of oilsands is about $3 per barrel less. In otherwords any negative GHG effects could be handled with country and world wide Carbon reduction schemes that target all industries and not just the oilsands.

Every barrel not produced by Canada is produced by the US, Saudi, Russia, Iran, Syria, etc. All countries with far less stringent environmental restrictions. The oilsands have a minimal effect on GHG as marginal barrels are close in impact.

Kuwait right now is building a heavy oil field that desalinates sea water, turns it into steam and injects in into the ground. Really no different than what we do.

If you want to stop GHG attack demand. Even if you want to stop making oil $3-$5 cheaper you would be better off building the pipelines and taxing oil more. That's what is so ridiculous about the Anti pipeline stance. Regardless of where you stand on the industry doing things a safer, more efficient way is better.

Not just that but when prices support expansion, the projects need to have someone willing to buy their oil which means moving it out of the province. A lack of pipeline capacity ensures there are no customers for a new project's volume even if prices support their economics.

What is that Kuwaiti project that is desalinating seawater for steam injection? That is interesting. Is that wafra?

[Buster]

Originally Posted by Slava

The problem is of course that the Harper Conservatives didn't press anything through either. So we were really left high and dry because no one wants to do anything that might cost them vote rich Ontario and Quebec. It has less to do with liking a particular part of the country or disliking them, and more to do with trying to keep votes.

Harper was, perhaps, the most West friendly PM the country has ever had. And even he did not even come close to having enough political capital to solve these issues.

That should tell you all you need to know about how beneficial Confederation will ever be to Alberta.

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by heep223

Like I've been saying, the market has been very short sighted on this. We could easily be in a significant supply shortage in as short as 6 months

That's always been my take on this crash/OPEC increase/shale/etc. We're going to see much larger and more rapid swings in the foreseeable future, IMO.

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Problem is this is all speculation among over-zealous investors at the moment. Quick market reaction.

Isn't that pretty much the crux of the market at any given time? Stocks will bounce 50% on the chance that maybe something might potentially happen some time sooner or later.

Originally Posted by nik-

Once the mining operations are done, their poster child for the "terror" of the Oil Sands will be gone. Until then, we're an easy target.

Not a chance. A large portion of Alberta doesn't know the difference between SAGD and open pit mining (look at any story on the oil sands in the Herald, and chances are they either have a picture of a refinery or mine when the article is about a SAGD operation).

Mines could be dead and gone for 20 years and that's still the image oil sands will conjure in the minds of the general public.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by GGG

Its probably a 50% true statement but when fighting people depicting the oil industry as Mordor you should fight fire with fire.

Horizon?

Spoiler!

Kirby?

Spoiler!

Kearl?

Spoiler!

Christina Lake?

Spoiler!

Firebag?

Spoiler!

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't get the whole argument that we're buying Saudi oil, so build the pipelines to stop that. The two seem unrelated to me. Unless we put in some crazy protectionist policies, we're still going to be buying oil from countries with poor human rights records regardless of our own oil production.

The fact that using our own oil in the refineries isn't a realistic option right now is the problem. Do you support shopping locally? Do you support supporting businesses that give back to communitties? do you support countries who have proper human rights legislation? Just a few examples of why refining Canadian oil as opposed importing Saudi oil makes, really the are a plethora of reasons.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

The fact that using our own oil in the refineries isn't a realistic option right now is the problem. Do you support shopping locally? Do you support supporting businesses that give back to communitties? do you support countries who have proper human rights legislation? Just a few examples of why refining Canadian oil as opposed importing Saudi oil makes, really the are a plethora of reasons.

Maybe local producers should start selling at the various farmers markets around town?

"Oil, by the barrel, locally grown, only 750 kms away."

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

Lets give them less money. It's a pretty simple concept.

Any other product and we'd be all circle jerking to buy a product we produce here. But OIL ... BAD.

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

The fact that using our own oil in the refineries isn't a realistic option right now is the problem. Do you support shopping locally? Do you support supporting businesses that give back to communitties? do you support countries who have proper human rights legislation? Just a few examples of why refining Canadian oil as opposed importing Saudi oil makes, really the are a plethora of reasons.

Neither of you really addressed my question though. Are we actually going to stop buying Saudi oil if we get the pipelines built? Are we going to be buying less Saudi oil if the pipelines are built? Is the entire world going to stop buying less Saudi oil if the pipelines are built? I'm guessing the answer is always going to be "no" unless the Saudis are unable to keep up with demand or we're able to sell our oil for less than they do, right?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Neither of you really addressed my question though. Are we actually going to stop buying Saudi oil if we get the pipelines built? Are we going to be buying less Saudi oil if the pipelines are built? Is the entire world going to stop buying less Saudi oil if the pipelines are built? I'm guessing the answer is always going to be "no" unless the Saudis are unable to keep up with demand or we're able to sell our oil for less than they do, right?

So we can't stop all of it so why bother?

We can buy a product we use a ton of from another part of our own country. Why wouldn't we do this.

I know you like to "debate" everything, but this is just ridiculous.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

Dave Mowat just released an announcement that the Royalty Review Report will be released Jan 29th, at 11:00am

Ha I called it!

Originally Posted by Iggy City

"before the end of the month". I bet you that'll be Friday January 29th haha last possible minute

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I don't get the whole argument that we're buying Saudi oil, so build the pipelines to stop that. The two seem unrelated to me. Unless we put in some crazy protectionist policies, we're still going to be buying oil from countries with poor human rights records regardless of our own oil production.

The question should be "why are we buying so much foreign oil at the expense of our domestic producers?" As you say, the odds are pretty good that any additional oil we purchase to meet additional needs likely have a human rights cost attached. But that is no excuse for not buying from Alberta or Saskatchewan first.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

Ha I called it!

Well the real "last possible minute" is the 3pm presser on a Friday before a long weekend. If they knew they were about to do something stupid and not want to get destroyed in the media they would've made that kind of decision.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

So we can't stop all of it so why bother?

We can buy a product we use a ton of from another part of our own country. Why wouldn't we do this.

I know you like to "debate" everything, but this is just ridiculous.

No, my problem is that it's a disingenuous position to take when the likelihood of seeing any reduction on the reliance foreign oil isn't really related to whether we can export our own more efficiently to other markets.

[Tinordi]

If we had implemented the NEP would we have built a pipeline east by now? I kid.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The question should be "why are we buying so much foreign oil at the expense of our domestic producers?" As you say, the odds are pretty good that any additional oil we purchase to meet additional needs likely have a human rights cost attached. But that is no excuse for not buying from Alberta or Saskatchewan first.

I agree, but how does building a pipeline force companies here to buy our oil first? Listen, I've said in numerous threads that I think we should be using Canadian oil first, I just don't know how you enforce that or how building pipelines ensures that.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, my problem is that it's a disingenuous position to take when the likelihood of seeing any reduction on the reliance foreign oil isn't really related to whether we can export our own more efficiently to other markets.

The Eastern refinery is buying Saudi oil. Instead they can buy Alberta oil. Yes they may still buy some Saudi Oil, or foreign oil from wherever, but now the Canadian product is there in large quantities too.

Are you only thinking of Northern Gateway? This is related to Energy East.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, my problem is that it's a disingenuous position to take when the likelihood of seeing any reduction on the reliance foreign oil isn't really related to whether we can export our own more efficiently to other markets.

Umm, one of the primary purposes of Energy East is to move our raw crude to the refineries in New Brunswick. The reliance on foreign oil in this case is because we can't move enough raw product fast enough to meet the demands of the refinery's business.

Originally Posted by rubecube

I agree, but how does building a pipeline force companies here to buy our oil first? Listen, I've said in numerous threads that I think we should be using Canadian oil first, I just don't know how you enforce that or how building pipelines ensures that.

I would suspect our own oil would be much cheaper to transport, for one.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

The Eastern refinery is buying Saudi oil. Instead they can buy Alberta oil. Yes they may still buy some Saudi Oil, or foreign oil from wherever, but now the Canadian product is there in large quantities too.

Are you only thinking of Northern Gateway? This is related to Energy East.

Yep, that's my bad. I thought we were talking about the stuff going West.