I'm calling it now, The Flames will be dancing this spring

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Bull####. We're one of the best 5v5 teams out there.

Huh???? By what measure, exactly?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Huh???? By what measure, exactly?

Maybe he's referring to the fact that the Flames are 4th in the league in even strength goals for? And ignoring the fact that they're dead last in even strength goals against?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by heep223

Maybe he's referring to the fact that the Flames are 4th in the league in even strength goals for? And ignoring the fact that they're dead last in even strength goals against?

Worst 5v5 goal differential, 3 worst score adjusted corsi%


They're very far from being one of the best

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Worst 5v5 goal differential, 3 worst score adjusted corsi%


They're very far from being one of the best

Tbf they don't have the worst ev goal differential. Looks like Hurricanes, Sabres, Ducks, Flyers, Blue Jackets and Oilers are all worse.

They are scoring a lot but they just can't keep the puck out of their net. Combination of horrible goaltending and bad (improving) D zone coverage.

[Enoch Root]

I love the playoff snake and I'm glad its back, but it doesn't really apply this season. The snake works for a league or conference race where all you can do is get as many points as possible and hope it'll be enough.

This year's race is divisional, and points are irrelevant - whether they get 80 or 100, the only thing that matters is finishing top 3. Like baseball. Win the division and you're in. Or more precisely, finish top 3 and you're in.

But it's actually more like the WC race in baseball, because we can probably concede 1st to LA (until things change), leaving 2 spots for the other 6 teams to fight for.

So I have put the race together in the format of MLB's wild card race. The top 2 spots are in, and everyone else is listed as games behind. (I have converted ties into wins and losses for clarity - each 2 ties equals 1 W and 1 L).

The important team is the one in 3rd because they hold the final playoff spot, and the team in 2nd is listed as being ahead by however many games. All the other teams are listed by how much they trail the 3rd place team.

So lets start by looking at things after the Flames' horrific start. These are the standings on Nov 5th (LA is ignored and the top 2 teams are 2nd and 3rd):

VAN 8-5-0 +1.5
SJS. 6-6-0 -
ARI. 5-5-1 -
EDM 5-8-0 -1.5
ANA 4-8-0 -2.0
CAL 3-9-1 -3.0 (-5.0)

So the Nucks were in 2nd and had a game and a half cushion. SJ and the Yotes were tied for the final spot and Edm, the Ducks and Flames were trailing by the amounts listed. (I also include how far back the Flames were from the Western Conf WC spot for reference - in this case, 5 games behind the Preds)

Here were the standings at the 20 game mark (just before US Thanksgiving):

SJS. 12-8-0 +1.5
ARI. 10-9-1 -
VAN 10-10-0 -0.5
ANA 9-11-0 -1.5
CAL 7-12-1 -3.0 (-4.5)
EDM 7-12-1 -3-0

So SJ and VAN switched places. The Flames basically held their position through this stretch (stopped the bleeding).

And as of today:

ARI. 15-15-0 -
SJS 14.-14-1 -
VAN 15-15-0 -
CAL 14-15-0 -0.5 (-3.0)
EDM 14-16-0 -1.0
ANA 13-15-1 -1.0

So we now have 6 teams all within one game of each other. Over this stretch, the Flames and the Oilers basically reeled the rest of the pack in.

And note that the Flames have also cut the WC deficit to 3 games. If they can beat Nash in regulation on Tuesday, they would cut that deficit by another full game.

If Mr Treliving can get us some goaltending, I have no doubt whatsoever that the Flames will make the dance again.

(Oh, one other note: I used ROW as the tie-breaker)

Thoughts?

[saillias]

Here's a thought: Why not bring up Kevin Poulin once he is healthy? He has NHL experience, more than Ortio. He has shown poorly in the NHL but even still his numbers are no worse than what Hiller or Ramo are doing right now. Then you waive Hiller.

There is nothing to lose because we are getting sub-.900 save percentage. At worst that's what Poulin will provide. At best he is an unknown commodity who may have upside

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I love the playoff snake and I'm glad its back, but it doesn't really apply this season. The snake works for a league or conference race where all you can do is get as many points as possible and hope it'll be enough.

This year's race is divisional, and points are irrelevant - whether they get 80 or 100, the only thing that matters is finishing top 3. Like baseball. Win the division and you're in. Or more precisely, finish top 3 and you're in.

But it's actually more like the WC race in baseball, because we can probably concede 1st to LA (until things change), leaving 2 spots for the other 6 teams to fight for.

So I have put the race together in the format of MLB's wild card race. The top 2 spots are in, and everyone else is listed as games behind. (I have converted ties into wins and losses for clarity - each 2 ties equals 1 W and 1 L).

The important team is the one in 3rd because they hold the final playoff spot, and the team in 2nd is listed as being ahead by however many games. All the other teams are listed by how much they trail the 3rd place team.

So lets start by looking at things after the Flames' horrific start. These are the standings on Nov 5th (LA is ignored and the top 2 teams are 2nd and 3rd):

VAN 8-5-0 +1.5
SJS. 6-6-0 -
ARI. 5-5-1 -
EDM 5-8-0 -1.5
ANA 4-8-0 -2.0
CAL 3-9-1 -3.0 (-5.0)

So the Nucks were in 2nd and had a game and a half cushion. SJ and the Yotes were tied for the final spot and Edm, the Ducks and Flames were trailing by the amounts listed. (I also include how far back the Flames were from the Western Conf WC spot for reference - in this case, 5 games behind the Preds)

Here were the standings at the 20 game mark (just before US Thanksgiving):

SJS. 12-8-0 +1.5
ARI. 10-9-1 -
VAN 10-10-0 -0.5
ANA 9-11-0 -1.5
CAL 7-12-1 -3.0 (-4.5)
EDM 7-12-1 -3-0

So SJ and VAN switched places. The Flames basically held their position through this stretch (stopped the bleeding).

And as of today:

ARI. 15-15-0 -
SJS 14.-14-1 -
VAN 15-15-0 -
CAL 14-15-0 -0.5 (-3.0)
EDM 14-16-0 -1.0
ANA 13-15-1 -1.0

So we now have 6 teams all within one game of each other. Over this stretch, the Flames and the Oilers basically reeled the rest of the pack in.

And note that the Flames have also cut the WC deficit to 3 games. If they can beat Nash in regulation on Tuesday, they would cut that deficit by another full game.

If Mr Treliving can get us some goaltending, I have no doubt whatsoever that the Flames will make the dance again.

(Oh, one other note: I used ROW as the tie-breaker)

Thoughts?

I don't think the flames are too far off based on w/l, but I think playoffs are as likely as they were in my mind a month ago when they were further behind. The things that have really changed are a small inconsequential improvement in sv%, PK and PP have dropped precipitously but they're in games because they're shooting the lights out. That simply isn't going to do it and unless things change drastically, the losses will pile up.

I'd still say they're a longer shot to make the dance than they are to getting Matthews (lottery win included). They're a Gaudreau injury or slump away from being dead last

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by saillias

Here's a thought: Why not bring up Kevin Poulin once he is healthy? He has NHL experience, more than Ortio. He has shown poorly in the NHL but even still his numbers are no worse than what Hiller or Ramo are doing right now. Then you waive Hiller.

There is nothing to lose because we are getting sub-.900 save percentage. At worst that's what Poulin will provide. At best he is an unknown commodity who may have upside

I agree that it would be interesting to see how he plays at the NHL level for the Flames. He'll probably beat Hiller in terms of save percentage, but Hiller is going to trend up (more or less) sooner or later.

The Flames would probably wait for Poulin to play more AHL games this season first, as he hasn't played much thus far.

Now that the Flames are in the playoff race, they might be less willing to experiment.

[CroFlames]

It's hard not to look at the standings and be hopeful. Only a couple points away with a couple games in hand. Of course, the Flames have already gone on a tear of a winning streak, and will need to win the next two or 3 to stay in the mix. Looking at the play style the Flames have been lucky many nights. (Granted, they have been unlucky many nights at the start of the year). Like SP said, a Johnny injury (Or Mony for that matter) and a slump and the Flames would sink so fast to the bottom it wouldn't even be funny.



Tree can't just hope and pray the players make it work though. IMO he needs to hunt for a goalie, and probably 1 top end winger. Yes this is still rebuilding, but you can't just draft guys and let them ferment until they are 26 and "ready". You have to augment your team with trades.

[Jay Random]

To me, there are two numbers that suggest this team could still make a push for the playoffs in a weak division:

Flames' goal differential in October: -23
Goal differential since then: -2

The sample size is getting large enough to suggest that this was an average team that had a rotten start, and not a rotten team that went on a temporary hot streak. In the Pacific this year, average will probably get you into the dance.

Of course, if they can find a goalie who does what Dubnyk did last year, look out.

[Erick Estrada]

I still believe the Flames will be drafting top 5 in June unless a legit goaltender is brought in via trade. It's only going to take a short losing skid for this team to be firmly planted at 30th overall. I think it's one of those seasons like the shortened 2013 season where about ten teams will be tight down to the line to decide who's drafting top 5.

[polak]

-The worst goal differential
-The worst goaltending
-The most goals allowed
-The 2nd worst away record
-The worst PP
-The worst PK

Things we have to fix before playoffs matter.

[troutman]

88 points might be good enough this year?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by polak

-The worst goal differential
-The worst goaltending
-The most goals allowed
-The 2nd worst away record
-The worst PP
-The worst PK

Things we have to fix before playoffs matter.

Already fixed. Was terrible for 13 games, is average since

(and most goals allowed is getting better - though a goalie would help immensely)

[heep223]

Originally Posted by polak

-The worst goal differential
-The worst goaltending
-The most goals allowed
-The 2nd worst away record
-The worst PP
-The worst PK

Things we have to fix before playoffs matter.

You could boil down your list to

a) getting a goalie (difficult)
b) getting the powerplay going (doable)

Much more manageable.

[Badgers Nose]

Not looking so crazy now. Bravo OP.

Flames might make history again when they make the playoffs with worst PP, PK and goal diff.

[Badgers Nose]

After the streak if they get to a few games above 500 and stay there the playoffs are pretty much a lock.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by saskflames69

If the Flames make the playoffs this year I will eat a 14 year old can of water chestnuts I found in the back of my parents' pantry.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm...52016&type=DIV

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by heep223

I dunno, they're 6 points back of the Canucks with 3 games in hand. If the Flames continue to play this well through December, they could be in a playoff spot by New Years.

Or one week after you made this post. How fast things can change!

[getbak]

To start December:

• 11 points behind LA
• 10 points behind San Jose
• 9 points behind Arizona
• 7 points behind Vancouver
• 5 points behind Anaheim
• Tied with Edmonton

Now:

• 10 points behind LA (+1)
• 1 point behind San Jose (+9)
• 2 points ahead of Arizona (+11)
• 2 points ahead of Edmonton (+2)
• 2 points ahead of Vancouver (+9)
• 5 points ahead of Anaheim (+10)