The New American Politics thread

[Nobama]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Given that Ramadan lasts an entire month, and that atrocities happen in Israel and the Middle East every day, and based on your posting history, I'm going to take a wild shot in the dark that you have, at some point, said something hateful about Muslims during one of their holidays or anniversary of a tragedy.

HA! Awesome post buddy. No seriously bro that is post of the year worthy.

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by Nobama

HA! Awesome post buddy. No seriously bro that is post of the year worthy.

You seem familiar somehow...

[Harry Lime]

I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the American election, but since campaigning starts shortly after the previous election, it has been hard to not get a general idea of the players. Is it safe to say that the two best qualified (to actually help the country), and thus having no chance in hell of winning, are :

Bernie Saunders (Democrat)
Rand Paul (Republican)

The best President would be :

Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) not appearing in this film.

And the likely candidates will be :

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
Jeb Bush (Republican)

Because America has become a thinly veiled monarchy, alternatively ruled by a few powerful families?
(under the thumb of the Rothchilds, for the true conspiracy theorists among you)

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Nobama

HA! Awesome post buddy. No seriously bro that is post of the year worthy.

Almost as though blindly throwing out prejudice makes someone sound stupid...

[KelVarnsen]

Returnee posters are so cute.

[rubecube]

Oh good, Quincey_Egg is back.

[Looch City]

All your credibility as a poster goes to zero with a username like that. You could have atleast tried a little bit harder to fit in.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Nobama

A wedding on Tuesday at 9:30 am?? Ya, ok.

It could have happened at any time and date. Someone just pulled it out of the archives to enrage the Yanks and those who are easily fooled.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the American election, but since campaigning starts shortly after the previous election, it has been hard to not get a general idea of the players. Is it safe to say that the two best qualified (to actually help the country), and thus having no chance in hell of winning, are :

Bernie Saunders (Democrat)
Rand Paul (Republican)

The best President would be :

Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) not appearing in this film.

And the likely candidates will be :

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
Jeb Bush (Republican)

Because America has become a thinly veiled monarchy, alternatively ruled by a few powerful families?
(under the thumb of the Rothchilds, for the true conspiracy theorists among you)

Jeb Bush is a dink, he should just drop out.

[Senator Clay Davis]

At this point it's pretty much down to 3 in the Republican nomination: Trump, Rubio and Cruz. And Cruz is only a backup candidate if the Donald falls apart. And it simply appears that isn't going to happen. At this point I don't see what can cause his support to go down enough to not be the nominee. Still a staggering amount of time to go though.

Donald Trump is once again alone at the top of the Republican field, according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll, with 36% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents behind him, while his nearest competitor trails by 20 points.

Three candidates cluster behind Trump in the mid-teens, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 16%, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 14% and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party's nomination for president.

Carson (down 8 points since October), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (down 5 points to 3%) and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (down 4 points to 1%) have lost the most ground since the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in mid-October.

Cruz (up 12 points) and Trump (up 9 points) are the greatest beneficiaries of those declines. Rubio is also up slightly, gaining 4 points -- an increase within the poll's margin of sampling error -- since the last CNN/ORC poll.

Republican voters are most sharply divided by education. Among those GOP voters who hold college degrees, the race is a close contest between the top four contenders, with Cruz slightly in front at 22%, Carson and Rubio tied at 19% and Trump at 18%. Among those without college degrees, Trump holds a runaway lead: 46% support the businessman, compared with 12% for Cruz, 11% for Carson and just 8% for Rubio.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/po...inkId=19300100

[ernie]

538 has a recent article that this nomination process is going to go a long ways towards how polling is done. Seems Trump support falls dramatically in live polls (live phone call not automated and not online).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...d-trumps-fate/

Some other stuff on what polls mean at this point in the process.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ing-attention/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...r-what-a-joke/

[Nobama]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the American election, but since campaigning starts shortly after the previous election, it has been hard to not get a general idea of the players. Is it safe to say that the two best qualified (to actually help the country), and thus having no chance in hell of winning, are :

Bernie Saunders (Democrat)
Rand Paul (Republican)

The best President would be :

Elizabeth Warren (Democrat) not appearing in this film.

And the likely candidates will be :

Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
Jeb Bush (Republican)

Because America has become a thinly veiled monarchy, alternatively ruled by a few powerful families?
(under the thumb of the Rothchilds, for the true conspiracy theorists among you)

Jeb has 3% support in the polls. Its not going to happen for him.

Hillary belongs in Jail for her crimes. Amazing people would actually vote for her.

[Hemi-Cuda]

http://www.burntorangereport.com/dia...z-despises-him

Lol

“Why do people take such an instant dislike to Ted Cruz? It just saves time.”

[octothorp]

I do subscribe to the theory that the party system is primarily designed to keep out candidates that the establishment does not like, and the complete non-support of Trump in endorsements is going to count against him far more than the current polling numbers will count for him.

My prediction: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump finishes second. Trump wins New Hampshire, but it's a relatively narrow win over Rubio, and seen as more of a victory for Rubio than for Trump. Trump's number go into decline shortly after, and he ends up fading by the time the primaries really get going.
Bush hangs around, continues to pick up the occasional endorsement, and as other less-funded moderates (Christie, Kasaich, Fiorona) drop out, the moderate wing coalesces around him, and his numbers get a significant uptick. There's still a significant number of states who will vote for a moderate republican, and if Bush stays in he still has the inside track on those ones.
In the end, it becomes a solid three-way battle between Cruz, Rubio, and Bush.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I do subscribe to the theory that the party system is primarily designed to keep out candidates that the establishment does not like, and the complete non-support of Trump in endorsements is going to count against him far more than the current polling numbers will count for him.

My prediction: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump finishes second. Trump wins New Hampshire, but it's a relatively narrow win over Rubio, and seen as more of a victory for Rubio than for Trump. Trump's number go into decline shortly after, and he ends up fading by the time the primaries really get going.
Bush hangs around, continues to pick up the occasional endorsement, and as other less-funded moderates (Christie, Kasaich, Fiorona) drop out, the moderate wing coalesces around him, and his numbers get a significant uptick. There's still a significant number of states who will vote for a moderate republican, and if Bush stays in he still has the inside track on those ones.
In the end, it becomes a solid three-way battle between Cruz, Rubio, and Bush.

You believe trump is outside of the party structure, but I don't agree. He's the tip of the republican spear. Trump has soaked up all the negative mainstream press that has been slung at right wing candidates. As the tip of the spear, he is being blunted by the negative press.

Meanwhile, further back on the spear head, guys like Marco Rubio are waiting to create the sucking chest wound with their razor sharp policy initiatives that haven't been blunted by 12 months of mainstream media dogging.

It's a freakin' tremendous strategy.

[rubecube]

It really is something that we've lived to see the rebirth of a legitimate, fascist political candidate.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It really is something that we've lived to see the rebirth of a legitimate, fascist political candidate.

Join the club. We've got bonafide fascists in one of the governing parties already. Literal national socialists even.

I always thought that when nazis make a comeback, they'd at least change the name.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

http://www.burntorangereport.com/dia...z-despises-him

Lol

His former roommate really dislikes him. Quotes on the daily show were around hating him and 99% of it s his personality. And it is universal. His party hates him, democrats hate him. It's not because he's an outsider ruffling feathers but because he's a just a jerk.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It really is something that we've lived to see the rebirth of a legitimate, fascist political candidate.

This is pretty contentious, but it isn't outrageous to say that some kind of new weird nationalism is pulling America apart at the seams.

[Senator Clay Davis]

To be fair, I guess, he doesn't do his own tweets, he lets some racist staffer do it for him. But, I mean, are you ####ing kidding me?