[CP Story] Did the Flames Miss the Playoffs on July 1st?

[Buck Murdock]

The goaltending argument is somewhat oileresque.... Play terribly defensively, then blame the goalie. Not to say that Ramo and Hiller have been great, but certainly not the reason for all of the problems so far.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you don't agree then? I get the feeling you don't agree.

Fair enough, ....

I just think when you have a team that over achieves with insanely pro culture it's a really fine line, and you just don't know what little move can be the apple cart move.

I think the goalie thing was said move.

Honestly Bingo, I think you took a discussion on this forum and wrote an incredibly simplistic blog entry off of it.

Having three goalies on the roster to to start the season was not ideal. Nobody disagrees with that. But "did the Flames miss the playoffs on July 1"? Seriously? I mean, sure, that is going to resonate well with the overreationaries on this forum, how how does one take such hyperbole seriously?

No. I don't think signing a goalie to ensure there is competition in net during camp is what caused this entire team to fall apart.

If you want to fault Treliving and Hartley, fault them for not simply waiving either Hiller or Ramo on the eve of the regular season. (Or Ortio, if they were willing to take the risk then.) But for signing a guy who did good work for us and whom was necessary both to create competition in training camp and to be there if we suffered an injury? They were waiting on someone to take control, and since nobody did, then sure, they should have just arbitrarily sent someone down. A definite failing. But as a failing, it pales in significance to the play of 90% of this team's roster when you are looking for reasons to explain why we are closer to the Oilers than we are the Kings.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Reasons for poor season IMO:

-Expected regression to the mean in results relative to advance stats (despite improvement in those stats)
-Overcorrection of team play well past the mean for PDO
-Abysmal special teams
-Inexplicably horrible play from key veterans (Giordano, Hudler, Wideman)
-Adjustment period for rookies and new additions (Bennett, Ferland, Hamilton)
-3 goaltender situation (a cop out as far as I'm concerned)
-Poor luck in close games
-Loss of team identity
-Overconfidence in abilities to come back in games


The 3 goalie situation was one of just many, many factors that have plagued this team this season. If it was a problem, it's 100% on them as professionals. The fact that all 3 had issues with it means that none of them were ever really the answer to begin with, and we just found out now instead of down the road. Really, it only mattered in the first 10-12 games or so, and ever since then the Flames have been a .500 club, which isn't terrible but they aren't much better than the way they started the year. Special teams matter much more to the success of a club that the intangible of "chemistry", and the Flames are at the bottom of the league because they haven't dedicated themselves to hard work and team systems on special teams. In fact, most of their problems this year are a lack of dedication to the system and trusting that they will have success if they just implement it well. They've fixed most of the problems and become a better team most of the time, but to pin all the problems on one small issue that only lasted the early part of the season is vastly oversimplifying a complex problem.

The top of your list should be team goaltending. You can say the 3 goalie system didn't have anything to do with them sucking, but their terribleness is why the Flames are so bad.

They have an .880 save percentage.

.880

That is terrible. The next lowest is .892. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...rcentage/2015/

[ricardodw]

" A top draft pick this year to add to a stable that includes Bennett, Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamilton and Brodie will likely look very good in 24 months"

No mention of the two of the three long term big bucks signings of the summer?

Lot of Money and term for support players

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Honestly Bingo, I think you took a discussion on this forum and wrote an incredibly simplistic blog entry off of it.

Having three goalies on the roster to to start the season was not ideal. Nobody disagrees with that. But "did the Flames miss the playoffs on July 1"? Seriously? I mean, sure, that is going to resonate well with the overreationaries on this forum, how how does one take such hyperbole seriously?

No. I don't think signing a goalie to ensure there is competition in net during camp is what caused this entire team to fall apart.

If you want to fault Treliving and Hartley, fault them for not simply waiving either Hiller or Ramo on the eve of the regular season. (Or Ortio, if they were willing to take the risk then.) But for signing a guy who did good work for us and whom was necessary both to create competition in training camp and to be there if we suffered an injury? They were waiting on someone to take control, and since nobody did, then sure, they should have just arbitrarily sent someone down. A definite failing. But as a failing, it pales in significance to the play of 90% of this team's roster when you are looking for reasons to explain why we are closer to the Oilers than we are the Kings.

You know it is possible to disagree with someone without coming off like a jerk.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The top of your list should be team goaltending. You can say the 3 goalie system didn't have anything to do with them sucking, but their terribleness is why the Flames are so bad.

They have an .880 save percentage.

.880

That is terrible. The next lowest is .892. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...rcentage/2015/

Sorry, didn't mean to dismiss the poor goaltending overall (I reference the numbers in PDO), but I absolutely do not believe the 3 goaltender situation has anything to do with their performances this year. Either you show up ready to play as a professional or you don't, regardless of the playing situation.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The top of your list should be team goaltending. You can say the 3 goalie system didn't have anything to do with them sucking, but their terribleness is why the Flames are so bad.

They have an .880 save percentage.

.880

That is terrible. The next lowest is .892. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...rcentage/2015/

I hate the save percentage argument, especially when presented as the be all, end all.

Shoddy D leads often enough to unstoppable shots. Great D minimizes chances.

Kipper's save percentage was record setting under Sutter and below league average under Keenan. The 2004 D kept everything to the outside.

This year you have unprotected guys in the slot taking clean passes from behind, you have Hamilton letting Rakell walk cleanly around him.

Play these properly and Ramo lets in 2 vs Anaheim instead of 4. And if you don't all jump up on the PK and gift Perry a breakaway, he lets in 1.

None of these 3 plays are expected to be stopped 90 percent of the time.

That is what torpedoes save percentage.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I hate the save percentage argument, especially when presented as the be all, end all.

Shoddy D leads often enough to unstoppable shots. Great D minimizes chances.

Kipper's save percentage was record setting under Sutter and below league average under Keenan. The 2004 D kept everything to the outside.

This year you have unprotected guys in the slot taking clean passes from behind, you have Hamilton letting Rakell walk cleanly around him.

Play these properly and Ramo lets in 2 vs Anaheim instead of 4. And if you don't all jump up on the PK and gift Perry a breakaway, he lets in 1.

None of these 3 plays are expected to be stopped 90 percent of the time.

That is what torpedoes save percentage.

No team has been anywhere near .880 in years. So you are essentially saying the Flames have a historically bad team defense by arguing that it isn't the goalies.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

You know it is possible to disagree with someone without coming off like a jerk.

Call it what you like, that is exactly what happened here.

Added bonus, we now have two threads on the exact same topic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Call it what you like, that is exactly what happened here.

Added bonus, we now have two threads on the exact same topic.

Jesus ...

I'm willing to take criticism believe me, but you get serious "knob" points for this one.

You'd think 15 years of writing free article wouldn't get you accused of lifting ideas or being simplistic.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The top of your list should be team goaltending. You can say the 3 goalie system didn't have anything to do with them sucking, but their terribleness is why the Flames are so bad.

They have an .880 save percentage.

.880

That is terrible. The next lowest is .892. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...rcentage/2015/

Let's actually make this relevant. The NHL average is .915 (OT - bigger nets, please). So, we are .035 worse than the average. For argument's sake, let's say we give up 30 shots per game. 22 games = 660 shots. 660 x 0.035 = 23.1. Soooo, we have given up 23 more goals this season than we would have with average NHL goaltending; more than 1 goal per game! Insane.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

No team has been anywhere near .880 in years. So you are essentially saying the Flames have a historically bad team defense by arguing that it isn't the goalies.

Yes, I am saying the D has been that bad. Whole team D zone play in October, and they still haven't ironed everything out.

Or in other words let's say .900 is the bar. .02 difference x avg 30 shots per game x 20 games - about 13-14 goals that we can hang on shoddy D this year? Easy. After the 3 in the Anaheim game I believe 10 more would not be hard to find.

[Alberta_Beef]

This piece surprised me, it seems more like something I would avoid reading by Kent Wilson over on Flames Nation. Suggesting two whole weeks of a three headed goalie monster is the reason the Flames may miss the playoffs is pretty sensationalist.

[sticktrick]

Originally Posted by polak

I think we missed the playoffs whenever the freak accident took place that made Giordano and Wideman brain dead and turned them into terrible defensemen.

LOL! The funniest thing I've read all day... and so true.

It's interesting to read and hear about all the potential reasons why the flames aren't near replicating a similar performance from last year, especially with the improved roster talent this year.

Whatever happened to Giordano and the hill that Wideman is sliding on, definitely doesn't help the flames.

I hope tonight is the night where the REAL Mark Giordano shows up. Will the real Mark Giordano, please stand up? As for Wideman...he's become a defensive detriment. Fun to watch at times, but more often I find myself swearing at him/TV.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Jesus ...

I'm willing to take criticism believe me, but you get serious "knob" points for this one.

You'd think 15 years of writing free article wouldn't get you accused of lifting ideas or being simplistic.

FWIW, I wasn't trying to accuse you of lifting ideas. It's fair to be inspired by discussions. But yes, that was a simplistic analysis. And your 15 years managing this site - while greatly appreciated - does not make it any less simplistic.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yes, I am saying the D has been that bad. Whole team D zone play in October, and they still haven't ironed everything out.

Or in other words let's say .900 is the bar. .02 difference x avg 30 shots per game x 20 games - about 13-14 goals that we can hang on shoddy D this year? Easy. After the 3 in the Anaheim game I believe 10 more would not be hard to find.

Ok.

By that token you are saying this Flames team has been much worse defensively than say the Oilers of recent years. I strongly disagree with that, but your call.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Let's actually make this relevant. The NHL average is .915 (OT - bigger nets, please). So, we are .035 worse than the average. For argument's sake, let's say we give up 30 shots per game. 22 games = 660 shots. 660 x 0.035 = 23.1. Soooo, we have given up 23 more goals this season than we would have with average NHL goaltending; more than 1 goal per game! Insane.

This is pretty much dead on, according to that site the Flames have given up 659 shots.

[Vulcan]

Hartley has said before this season that he didn't like the three goalie system but from what I understood the argument was that it interfered with practises. He never elaborated and I don't know what has happened with other teams who tried it. Can anyone give any past experience examples?

It's probably been bad because just getting into that situation seems to say that no goalie has stood up as the #1. This is the case for the Flames in my opinion, no one has stood up and taken the top spot and that's on the goalies.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yes, I am saying the D has been that bad. Whole team D zone play in October, and they still haven't ironed everything out.

Or in other words let's say .900 is the bar. .02 difference x avg 30 shots per game x 20 games - about 13-14 goals that we can hang on shoddy D this year? Easy. After the 3 in the Anaheim game I believe 10 more would not be hard to find.

Your entire theory is busted by the fact that the Flames have allowed around 20% LESS high danger scoring chances this year, as compared to the same time last year. And have let in twice as many goals.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Let's actually make this relevant. The NHL average is .915 (OT - bigger nets, please). So, we are .035 worse than the average. For argument's sake, let's say we give up 30 shots per game. 22 games = 660 shots. 660 x 0.035 = 23.1. Soooo, we have given up 23 more goals this season than we would have with average NHL goaltending; more than 1 goal per game! Insane.

This also explains our league worse -27 goal differential.