Federal Election Polling Thread

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by rubecube

They also tried to run on their economic record, which is like me trying to run on my sobriety record.

Ha!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Lastly, with respect to Justin Trudeau - their main message of "not ready" was a mistake, especially in a long campaign. It's often that campaigns try and lower expectations of their own leader in order to make it easier for them to exceed them. The conservatives did that for the liberals! Over a long campaign, as long as Trudeau didn't start dribbling from his mouth on the debate stage and so on, he was going to exceed those expectations. And he did rather easily.

This is what I noticed as well.
Trudeau and his campaigners have tackled the "just not ready' ads head on and actually used them to their advantage. It hasn't taken much for them to look above the level of those ads.

[rubecube]

For the Gamblors:

http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainme...-election-odds

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA?
Odds as of October 14 at Bodog

Justin Trudeau -175
Stephen Harper +125
Thomas Mulcair +1500

WHICH PARTY WILL GARNER MORE VOTES IN THE FEDERAL ELECTION?
Odds as of October 14 at Bodog

New Democratic Party +1000
Liberal Party -2000

WHICH PARTY WILL GARNER MORE VOTES IN THE FEDERAL ELECTION?
Odds as of October 14 at Bodog

New Democratic Party +1000
Conservative Party -2000

WHICH PARTY WILL GARNER MORE VOTES IN THE FEDERAL ELECTION?
Odds as of October 14 at Bodog

Conservative Party +150
Liberal Party -200

WILL THERE BE A MAJORITY CANADIAN GOVERNMENT?
Odds as of October 14 at Bodog

Yes +400
No -700

[Parallex]

Tommorow morning should be Pollapooloza... Nanos + Ekos + Leger + Mainstreet will all be releasing.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Tommorow morning should be Pollapooloza... Nanos + Ekos + Leger + Mainstreet will all be releasing.

Yep, I just completed a Nanos survey that got sent to my email.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The resignation of that guy in the liberal party seems to be causing some damage.

Lib - 36.5 (- 0.6)
Con - 30.6 (+ 1.2)
NDP - 23.5 (- 0.2)
Green - 4.7 (+ 0.2)
Bloc - 4.3 (- 0.7)

New Day, New Nanos Poll

Lib - 37.0 (+ 0.5)
Con - 30.7 (+ 0.1)
NDP - 22.6 (- 0.9)
Green - 4.7 (NC)
Bloc - 4.4 (+ 0.1)

Yesterday seems to be a blip as the losses were eliminated almost entirely. 2 days remaining.

[rubecube]

This is creeping into majority territory for the Liberals. Not too keen on that personally.

[starseed]

Leger:
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/pub...en20151017.pdf
(Last poll Oct 7th)

LPC 38% (+4%)
CPC 30% (0%)
NDP 22% (-3%)


Mainstreet:
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politi...new-poll-finds
(Last poll Oct 7th)

LPC 38% (+3%)
CPC 33% (-3%)
NDP 21% (-1%)


Both polls show that the Liberals now have a 6-7% lead in Quebec over the NDP. Crazy. After that Papineau poll debacle, looks like it could be Outremont delivering the party leader upset.

[Mathgod]

Man the NDP are getting absolutely shelled.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Man the NDP are getting absolutely shelled.

Strategic ABC voters coalescing around the Liberals is my take. Mulcair hasn't run an inspiring campaign, but he hasn't really made any gaffes that would cost him a third of his support. He was just soundly outmaneuvered by the Liberals.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Strategic ABC voters coalescing around the Liberals is my take. Mulcair hasn't run an inspiring campaign, but he hasn't really made any gaffes that would cost him a third of his support. He was just soundly outmaneuvered by the Liberals.

I think that is a bit much.

The NDP campaign was going along well enough, right around 30% and then the Niqab issue came and their support in Quebec wavered. Mulclair then started playing to his Quebec base and harmed his chances in Ontario. At around the same time he seems to have lost 2 ridings he was well ahead of in AB - Lethbridge and Edmonton Griesbach to the CPC.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This is creeping into majority territory for the Liberals. Not too keen on that personally.

Keep in mind a liberal minority will rely mostly on the NDP for the government to keep going, which means conceding to some of their demands on legislation.

I'd prefer a majority, myself.

[killer_carlson]

i wish it's a minority government, which causes the 2nd place party (either the Libs or the CPC) to do an immediate leadership change

[Senator Clay Davis]

If the Liberals finish second, it's very doubtful Trudeau gets replaced as leader unless it's second to a CPC majority. And unless the CPC gets a majority and the NDP somehow gets second place, they will both be switching leaders. I suppose the question now is will Harper pull a Prentice and insta-resign if they lose the election outright? I suspect he will, can't imagine he has any interest in serving as opposition leader even for the transition period to a new party leader.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

i wish it's a minority government, which causes the 2nd place party (either the Libs or the CPC) to do an immediate leadership change

Win or lose, Liberals won't drop Trudeau. I think an NDP 'trouncing" will cost Mulcair his job, and anything but a solid Minority+ will cost Harper.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Seems likely to me that even with a minority government, Harper can't possibly stick around for the next election.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Seems likely to me that even with a minority government, Harper can't possibly stick around for the next election.

Harper won't even last that long unless he (miraculously) wins a majority tomorrow. If Harper tries to remain as PM in a scenario where the Conservatives win a plurality of seats but not a majority, the Liberals and NDP will vote against the first confidence motion (Speech from the Throne), and the Leader of the Opposition will then ask the Governor General for permission to try to win the confidence of the House. Harper will whine and complain and claim that the opposition parties are staging a "coup" and "going against the democratic will of the people", but they'd be acting perfectly within the rules of the Westminster Parliamentary system. Once he realizes there's nothing he can do about it, Harper will resign.

So unless the Conservatives somehow pull off the most amazing come-from-behind victory in Canadian election history and win a majority despite every poll showing them trailing, Harper's time as PM is very nearly over.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Win or lose, Liberals won't drop Trudeau. I think an NDP 'trouncing" will cost Mulcair his job, and anything but a solid Minority+ will cost Harper.

I know, but a person can still dream...

[Swift]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I suppose the question now is will Harper pull a Prentice and insta-resign if they lose the election outright? I suspect he will, can't imagine he has any interest in serving as opposition leader even for the transition period to a new party leader.

Which is something I detest, no matter who does it. You ran on a promise to serve your constituents, but if you don't get to be leader, you metaphorically raise your middle fingers and say "actually, I'm not that interested in serving you, see ya".

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

Which is something I detest, no matter who does it. You ran on a promise to serve your constituents, but if you don't get to be leader, you metaphorically raise your middle fingers and say "actually, I'm not that interested in serving you, see ya".

No i don't get this. He ran to be the leader of a country not the leader of a minority government. If he loses and chooses to step aside to give a more engaged party leader a shot at leadership, that's his choice.