Flames vs Avs vs Leafs

[GreenLantern2814]

This argument gets brought up a lot by naysayers, that the Flames will suffer the same fate as the Avalanche or Maple Leafs. My contention has always been that if you look at the D and centre depth of each team from one year to the next, it becomes readily apparent why each team failed to take a step forward the next year.

Let the peer review begin.


Toronto:

2012-13

Defense

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Gardiner-Franson
Komisarek-JML
Kostka-O'Byrne
Fraser-Holzer

Centre
Bozak
Grabovski
Kadri
McClement
Steckel
Komarov
Colborne

2013-14

Defense

Phaneuf-Gunnarsson
Reilly-Gardiner
Ranger-Franson
Gleason-Granberg
JML-Fraser (Both traded in season)

Centres

Bozak
Bolland
Kadri
McClement
McKegg
Smithson
Smith
Holland

Toronto had a bad defense and poor centre depth the year they made the playoffs. If they have to play 82 games, that group doesn't get into the playoffs. As evidenced by them never getting into the playoffs when they have to play 82 games. So what did they do to address the centre ice position and D the next year? They overpay for a half year of David Bolland, a #3C at best, and add a rookie Morgan Reilly to go along with Paul Ranger, who hadn't played hockey in years. Leafs = paper tiger.

Colorado

2013-14

Defense

Johnson-Hejda
Barrie-Benoit
Sarich-Holden
Guenin

Centres

Duchene
ROR
Stastny
MacKinnon
Mitchell
Talbot
Cliche

2014-15

Defense

Johnson-Hejda (EJ injured for more than half the year)
Holden-Guenin
Barrie-Stuart
Redmond-

Centres

Duchene
ROR
MacKinnon
Briere
Cliche
Mitchell
Talbot/Hamilton

Colorado's Achilles heel was defensive depth, and it was never more prevalent then when Matt Cooke Matt Cooke'd Tyson Barrie's knee. They had one defense pair after that, and were bounced from the playoffs soon after. Their centre depth even with the loss of Stastny would have been the envy of the league. I know ROR and MacKinnon play wing all the time, but the fact remains you could throw all three of them in the middle and be fine. Colorado is an extremely talented and exciting team, but they need help on the back end. Getting Zadorov this offseason is the sort of move they should be making, but I'd say they need another stud on the back end before they're legit playoff team. Injuries also derailed their season hard - Erik Johnson only played 47 games, and they didn't get a full year out of MacKinnon either. Don't sleep on the Avs, they're close.

Calgary

2014-15

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Engelland-Schlemko
Diaz-Smid
Wotherspoon

Centres

Monahan
Backlund
Stajan
Granlund
Colborne
Jooris
Shore

2015-16 *Projected

Defense
Giordano-Brodie
Hamilton-Wideman
Russell-Engelland
Morrisson-Wotherspoon

Centres
Monahan
Backlund
Bennett
Stajan
Granlund
Colborne
Shore
Jooris
Arnold (assuming he'll see some time this year)

The Flames' centre depth took a while to take shape last year. Backlund was injured for a few months, Monahan was spent the first half of the year with a really defense first mindset, and only broke out offensively once Colborne and Jones were swapped with Gaudreau and Hudler. Granlund Jooris and Stajan swung all up and down the lineup, but en masse, you see just how young the Flames centres are. Which bodes well going forward.

The duo of Brodie and Giordano were talked about as the best pairing in hockey for a stretch.

When Gio went down, Kris Russell and Dennis Wideman elevated their games and played absolutely out of their minds. Those saying Dennis Wideman won't score fifty points again: he probably won't. He won't have all of Giordano's PP time do it with. Instead, Giordano will get it. Which leaves the Flames better off.

Brodie played almost thirty minutes a night while dragging Deryk Engelland around. He got no PP time. He's a stud.

The Hamilton acquisition speaks for itself. The Flames have three top pairing defensemen, and arguably three #1s. All locked up for a combined $17M until the 2020s.

Centre depth for the Flames adds Bennett and otherwise remains constant, but that's a pretty good add. Not sure how he'll do over 82 games, but he doesn't hurt.

So in terms of the two things you really need for a contending team, centre depth and defensive depth, the Flames going forward are better designed than either Colorado or Toronto was following their upstart year.

TL;DR: The Flames are better built than the Avs or Leafs.

[bax]

Did this come from HF?

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by bax

Did this come from HF?

Or from Flames from 80 feet

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2015/...n-talking.html

[nik-]

We may regress next year, but it's not because the Avs and Leafs did.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by bax

Did this come from HF?

Yes, I wrote it last night. I care more about what this site thinks.

[DoubleF]

We may regress for 2 reasons IMO.

Goalies completely crap the bed and go all AHL on us. Mostly unlikely, except for the possibility of the next reason.

Injuries. It's crazy to think that we held tight last year even with major injuries to many key cogs at the beginning and end of the season. But if we fall, I think we fall to this.

If we fall, it's not for the same reasons as Avs and Leafs IMO.

No hot goalie, and no theoretical downgrade of our roster are at least the main ones.

[theslymonkey]

Great assessment.

I agree with everything you said about the Leafs, and the Avs analysis is good. But to say that the Flames are better built isn't totally correct in my books.

The Flames are built on Defense while the Avs are built on offense.

Both teams have defensively responsible top 6 forwards. But for today, the Avs forward depth is better.

Do I think the Flames will suffer the same fate? No.

The reason why is that I have always believed that the D drives the game. That's why the Preds are continually competitive. Their D is elite and make the forwards that much better (eg Ribeiro..)

I think the Flames also get the added benefit of playing in a very weak Pacific. If the Avs were in our division they would have had a great chance of making the playoffs at the Flames expense.

Going forward I think this will be a interesting comparison to watch. I think the Flames are better built for long term success, but the Avs have a deadly team. Just imagine if they had Hamilton instead of us... Changes a lot.

Regardless, very good assessment.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

We're built nothing like those two teams but people still think we're going to regress because of poor possession stats *YAWN*. This is mostly jealous Oiler/Canuck fans as far as I can tell, but the endless parroting is still annoying. There's a "Are the Flames for real?" thread on HF and suprise, suprise, a bunch of goofs with Mc in front of their name think we're going to regress despite roster upgrades and expected internal growth. Last year's Corsi stats are apparently the be all to end all, and nothing that has happened since or likely will happen matters to the face of that infallible crystal ball.

We added Hamilton and Frolik, as well as Giordano, to the team that finished the season. All three have great possession stats. Add in Bennett along with more internal growth among other players. Brodie, Poirier, Ferland, Ortio, Colborne, Granlund, Shore, Wotherspoon primarily are players I see improving to some degree if everything goes right. Monahan, Gaudreau may have even more to offer as well but to expect it would be foolish as they are both several years from their prime and some peaks and valleys should be expected. Even if Hudler, Bouma, Wideman and Russell regress to an extent (bank on it), I think the other factors I mentioned will cover that up and then some. Ramo and Hiller aren't great but if we made it with them last year, we can do so again since the rest of the team is demonstrably better. Sure they're not Varlamov or even Bernier, but that's okay because our defense is SO much better than the Leafs or the Avs... almost like the difference between an average AHL defense compared to an average NHL defense... it's laughable really that anyone still compares us to them. I think if you put Ramo or Hiller on Toronto or Colorado last year, they put up stats closer to a Joey MacDonald-level than what they did last year.

I would've said we had a 50/50 shot at best to make the playoffs before the Hamilton trade. The regression crowd had a bit of a case then but it was still mindless/hopeful parroting for the most part as far as I'm concerned. They basically said we were a fluke and WILL regress... it was just asinine. However, now with the additions of Hamilton and Frolik as well as factoring in internal growth I think you would basically be stupid to bet against this team. They aren't a lock, no team truly is, but I would give them an 80-90% of making it, this is a good team.

[Finger Cookin]

The Flames will do better than the Avs and Leafs because this is a Flames forum.

Smid needs to factor into your defense assessment. He's not #9 on the depth chart, and he'll be healthy enough to play.

[GranteedEV]

I made this thread a few months back, my arguments are in there:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=145073

[GreenLantern]

I think the Flames will regress slightly in their 3rd period come backs, that doesn't seem realistic to repeat. As far as overall performance though I think they will actually take a step forward which should help make up at least a portion of the difference.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I think the Flames will regress slightly in their 3rd period come backs, that doesn't seem realistic to repeat. As far as overall performance though I think they will actually take a step forward which should help make up at least a portion of the difference.

They won't need to, because they will be in the driver seat more often this year. They wont have 10+ 3rd period comebacks because there will be less opportunities to do that, as we will be leading going into the third far more often next year IMO. The Hamilton trade was so huge, it can't be understated, it completely changed the depth and complexion of the team. Russell or Wideman will be our 5th defenseman while the other gets to play with Gio, Brodie or Hamilton. For a team that engages with it D and drives it's offense through the back end, this is huge. Hartley is not going to have to worry about match ups nearly as much because the top 4 is so ironclad.

This is a 95-105 point team for the next few years, the rest of the league is just going to have to deal with that. The only question is when we take the next step to cup contender status. With how fast BT expedited phase one of the rebuild, I am confident we will take that next step sooner rather than later.

[Huntingwhale]

If the Flames didn't acquire guys like Hamilton or Frolik, I would expect them to regress. In fact I stated before that even though the Flames made round 2, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them take a small step back. Then Treliving put his wizard hat on and got Hamilton for beans and Frolik for under 5mil. My view has now changed.

The biggest argument is that the Flames do not repeat last season because they had poor possession numbers and teams that have poor numbers (like TO and CO did the season after) don't make the playoffs again. Well unlike the Leafs or Colorado, the Flames went out and addressed those problems. Hamilton and Frolik are supposedly both great possession guys so that should counterbalance that argument.

[CaptainCrunch]

Toronto had their success in a shortened season where a hot start is massive, if that team had played in an 82 game season there would have been a pretty good chance that they would have fallen because their goalies would have died from exhaustion.

Colorado got all world goaltending in their hot year and they lost Stastny which was a big loss, and their goaltending slumped to human norms.

Calgary has better personal then last year, they got what I would call average goaltending and still won last year.

The scenario's aren't comparable.

The Calgary vs Avs vs Leafs flames argument is a flawed argument for putting you're eggs in the advanced Stats basket without understanding personal or watching teams play.

Hey the Flames could regress this year, they could suffer a ton of injuries, but the comparable aren't the same. I hope the Flames finish higher then last year so the advanced Stats arrogance takes a hit.

[Geeoff]

People like to point to the Avs as an example of "unsustainable" advanced stats but I think the Avs roster got worse between 13/14 and 14/15. Also, they were a really good team down the stretch. The west is a shark tank where even a team like LA can miss the playoffs. The Leafs are closer to the pre-Monahan Flames than the current bunch.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I think the Flames will regress slightly in their 3rd period come backs, that doesn't seem realistic to repeat. As far as overall performance though I think they will actually take a step forward which should help make up at least a portion of the difference.

The biggest reason for the 3rd period comebacks was conditioning. The flames are the most well conditioned team in the nhl. When other teams start slowing down they are able to take advantage. I don't think all those comebacks were flukes.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

The biggest reason for the 3rd period comebacks was conditioning. The flames are the most well conditioned team in the nhl. When other teams start slowing down they are able to take advantage. I don't think all those comebacks were flukes.

I find that pretty hard to believe. Pro athletes take the game very seriously these days and I bet 95% of NHL hockey players are in top physical condition year round.

I think if you compare fitness numbers from team to team, they are pretty even throughout the league.

The Flames were crazy high in their shooting percentages last year. I think their additions will help but I still am expecting them to slide back from where they finished last year.

[Vulcan]

I probably agree that all teams take conditioning seriously and all teams are in good condition but Hartley is known for running the toughest practices in the NHL and it isn't just conditioning but also his work ethic he's instilled in the team.

[Strange Brew]

I suspect Flames will regress in terms of shooting percentage but I am very hopeful that improved shot differential and possession will more than make up for it.

We'll probably have fewer comebacks but more 3rd period leads.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I suspect Flames will regress in terms of shooting percentage but I am very hopeful that improved shot differential and possession will more than make up for it.

We'll probably have fewer comebacks but more 3rd period leads.

Maybe not. Flames play a different (or same but slightly ahead of the pack in ways) and complete game. Activated D is a key piece of the overall game.

Corsi is based on volume of shots and not critical decision making.

Is high shooting percentage an anomaly or a product of the emphasis on hockey IQ? Incidentally, this change started under Feaster