2015 Blue Jays Regular Season Thread

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by flambers

Biggest difference between Tulo and Reyes in my opinion is defense.

Reyes was getting to the point where he had to change positions.

True but Reyes is arguably (what) top 6 in American League whereas (offensvively) Tulo is no.1. However, the biggest need, if we are going to trade top arm prospects away, should be for a pitcher in the middle rotation. A good pitcher will shutdown good hitters.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by VERVE

True but Reyes is arguably (what) top 6 in American League whereas (offensvively) Tulo is no.1. However, the biggest need, if we are going to trade top arm prospects away, should be for a pitcher in the middle rotation. A good pitcher will shutdown good hitters.

I don't think anyone disagrees with that. Tulo > Reyes.

If we are going to trade for a pitcher we have two choices: 1) Empty the farm completely or 2) Trade Bautista or EE. Neither of those options are great but right now, Bautista doesn't seem happy and he might be a better fit on another team.

[sketchyt]

I am thrilled the Jays got a shortstop who can routinely field ground balls instead of treating them like grenades.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

If we are going to trade for a pitcher we have two choices: 1) Empty the farm completely or 2) Trade Bautista or EE.

You can’t subtract an important part of the offense for Pitching… a run is a run is a run whether it’s a run made or a run saved they all count the same.

Trading away a productive hitter for a productive pitcher is a net gain of nothing. It’s robbing Peter to pay Paul and entirely unproductive. Besides a team that’s selling will want futures (AKA not Joey Bats or EE) and a team that’s contending won’t want to trade away a good enough pitcher to justify that cost (least of all to a team that has pretentions of contending themselves).

With regards to selling the farm, yes that is seemingly what it costs (the proverbial arm and leg) to get a very good pitcher under team control... look at what the ask on Carrasco was. It's entirely to high so the Jays are gonna have to go out and look for a bargain rental. A bargain rental won't be an ace but really we can get by on just a good pitcher to replace the DFA'ed today Felix Doubant.

I'd be targetting Hisashi Iwakuma... He's been good in the past but his results this year have been pretty poor. Delving into his stats a bit deeper reveals that it's due almost entirely to a seemingly random spike in HR's allowed. He's not giving up more flyballs nor more line-drives so he's not being hit any harder he's just had a bit of bad luck. Maybe that plus his lack of reputation can supress his cost enough that it'll work for the Jays.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Parallex

You can’t subtract an important part of the offense for Pitching… a run is a run is a run whether it’s a run made or a run saved they all count the same.

Trading away a productive hitter for a productive pitcher is a net gain of nothing. It’s robbing Peter to pay Paul and entirely unproductive. Besides a team that’s selling will want futures (AKA not Joey Bats or EE) and a team that’s contending won’t want to trade away a good enough pitcher to justify that cost (least of all to a team that has pretentions of contending themselves).

Not when trading that hitter will likely still leave you with a top 3-5 offensive team in baseball. Bringing in a decent starter and reliever for Bautista would do wonders for this club as Tulo will really soften the blow of losing Bautista. One trade could hypothetically make them drop from #1 in offense to #5 but raise them in defense from #30 to #20... which would be awesome for this team. That's likely 5-10 more wins if that's what we had all year. There's no rule that says trading offense for defense will result in a net difference of zero runs.

You are likely right about the prospects of trading Bautista and Edwin for help now as teams with arms to spare aren't going to want those guys... unless they are good teams, in which case they'd want to keep their surplus pitching and go all in.

Who's to say they can't trade JB/EE for prospects and then flip a combination of that return plus some of what they already have to a third team for pitching? Surely there is a seller out there that would take a mixture of Jays assets and another team's assets in return for a pitcher...

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Not when trading that hitter will likely still leave you with a top 3-5 offensive team in baseball. Bringing in a decent starter and reliever for Bautista would do wonders for this club as Tulo will really soften the blow of losing Bautista. One trade could hypothetically make them drop from #1 in offense to #5 but raise them in defense from #30 to #20... which would be awesome for this team. That's likely 5-10 more wins if that's what we had all year. There's no rule that says trading offense for defense will result in a net difference of zero runs.

This is completely false. The best player in baseball (Mike Trout) is not worth 10 wins on his own over the course of an entire season. But somehow losing an elite hitter in Bautista and replacing him with a decent starter is going to improve the club 10 wins in 2/3 of a season? There's no rule that says you have to build your team around being above average at everything. Good teams can have flaws too if you are world beating in other areas.

Just because the Jays have the best offense in baseball doesn't mean Tulo can't improve it. A run is a run whether it's created or prevented - they all count the same. This isn't hockey where having too many good forwards can cause diminishing returns since there's only so much icetime to go around (especially on the PP).

[Caged Great]

40% of the balls hit by Tulo are what is considered "Hard Contact".

As shocking as that sounds, that is the best on the Jays.

Also, part of the reason why Tulo's defensive numbers are down this year is that the Rockies have been using some unusual defensive alignments that have limited the need for his defensive abilities. (from a rox fan)

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by JayP

This is completely false. The best player in baseball (Mike Trout) is not worth 10 wins on his own over the course of an entire season. But somehow losing an elite hitter in Bautista and replacing him with a decent starter is going to improve the club 10 wins in 2/3 of a season? There's no rule that says you have to build your team around being above average at everything. Good teams can have flaws too if you are world beating in other areas.

Just because the Jays have the best offense in baseball doesn't mean Tulo can't improve it. A run is a run whether it's created or prevented - they all count the same. This isn't hockey where having too many good forwards can cause diminishing returns since there's only so much icetime to go around (especially on the PP).

No, I said going from #30 to #20 in runs against could be worth an extra 5-10 wins this year, if we had the more balanced team from the start. Ten is optimistic I suppose. Do you not think getting merely below average pitching compared to atrocious would be worth 5 extra wins over the course of the season so far? Remember, acquiring Tulo is factored into those extra wins, not just the return on Bautista+EE. By trading those guys (indirectly, you'd probably have to move the return for those guys) they could acquire 3-4 pitchers for the rotation and bullpen and each of those guys would likely be much better than most of what is already there, even if they were only slightly better than average. The actual return would likely be better than "slightly better than average".

With the way the tem is constructed right now, we pretty much need 6 runs on any given night to have a chance to win. I don't care how good your offense is, no team can do that consistently enough to make the playoffs. Every game they score 10, is balanced off by one where they score 1, and pitching and hitting are often not clicking at the same time. I'd rather have a team that doesn't hemorrhage runs against, and build from there. No team has ever won anything with terrible pitching (defined as bottom 5 in baseball). Heck, I doubt any team in HISTORY has ever made the playoffs with pitching that bad.

Yes, teams can be built differently, with different strengths and weaknesses but I'd argue that being weak at pitching is not an option if you also want to be a good team. The 2015 Blue Jays have very painfully proven this.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Do you not think getting merely below average pitching compared to atrocious would be worth 5 extra wins over the course of the season so far?

No, not if you're concurrently losing offense in the process. A run is a run is a run. Where you get it from has no relevance You can go out and get a 4 win pitcher... great... doesn't make a lick of difference if you gave up a 4 win hitter in the process.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No, not if you're concurrently losing offense in the process.

Even if you are already scoring more than enough runs to win games and your problem is that you give up more than any other team?

I agree with the premise generally, but I think the Jays are an exception as any team ranked #1 in runs scored and #30 in runs against would be. You never see that odd combination so it's hard to wrap your head around it. The Jays don't need to be #1 in offense to make the playoffs, top 5 is more than adequate. They also need to be better than bottom 5 in ERA if they want to have a chance. I know what position I'd be shoring up if I was the GM... but I'm sure you'd say it would be just as good to trade EE and JB+more prospects for upgrades at 1B and RF, if they were on the level of Tulo>Reyes, as it would be to trade them for some actual decent pitchers.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Even if you are already scoring more than enough runs to win games and your problem is that you give up more than any other team?

Yes. Because now you're scoring less runs, less runs means you're no longer scoring more than enough runs to win games. Think of it this way games that you were losing 6-7 you're now instead losing 4-5.

Run Prevention is not more (or less) valuable then Run Generation.

Look I'm all in favor of more run prevention... but it's pointless if it comes at the cost of run generation.

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I know what position I'd be shoring up if I was the GM... but I'm sure you'd say it would be just as good to trade EE and JB+more prospects for upgrades at 1B and RF, if they were on the level of Tulo>Reyes, as it would be to trade them for some actual decent pitchers.

It would be just as good, that's a fact. It's easier (not better) to upgrade your area's of deficiency (because it's easier to upgrade a below average/replacement level player then it it is an already good player... but easier is not better.

[KelVarnsen]

Tulo!!!!!!!

[Caged Great]

That was an okay hit by Tulo. 2nd deck.

[MyFlamesFirst]

So far so good on Tulo's debut. That was a beautiful swing

[jayswin]

pff, call me when he hits the third deck.

[Caged Great]

That HR was 460 feet, which is the longest at Skydome since 2009.

[Caged Great]

And a double for Tulo.

[jayswin]

Haha, and now he just crushed a double. What a debut!

[jayswin]

Tulo scores off a Bautista single. I'm getting excited about the Jays again. They always do this to me.

[Caged Great]

4-0 after Martin doubled in Bau