MacLean: Oilers will win cup in next 2-4 years

[TX_Flame]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

In '03 Pittsburgh had a 65 point season, followed by two 58 point seasons. Three years later they won the cup.

In '04 Chicago had a 59 point season, followed by a 65 point season. Four seasons later and they were cup winners.

The Kings were a bit different. In '07 the had a 68 point season, followed by a 71 point season. Four years later they were cup winners.

All three teams won cups within five years of bottoming out. The Pens and Chicago both won cups in that time frame after bottoming out with sub-sixty point seasons.

Assuming that Edmonton bottomed out in 2013, winning by 2018 fits the pattern. Also, if you look at the time elapsed between the years Pittsburgh and Chicago got their superstar players ('06 and '08) and their following cup wins ('09 and '10), it suggests the Oilers 2018 cup win would be right on time.

Sad to say, but I don't think it's that crazy of a suggestion.

All of those teams found serviceable to excellent talent in the later rounds of the draft beyond the no brainers that were their rewards for well timed ineptitude. They all had significant talent on D and in net. For each of those examples one can also point to teams such as Washington, NYI, and the Oilers themselves to prove that it takes more than sucking your way into a bunch of #1 overall picks to build a Stanley Cup Champion.

[polak]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

In '03 Pittsburgh had a 65 point season, followed by two 58 point seasons. Three years later they won the cup.

In '04 Chicago had a 59 point season, followed by a 65 point season. Four seasons later and they were cup winners.

The Kings were a bit different. In '07 the had a 68 point season, followed by a 71 point season. Four years later they were cup winners.

All three teams won cups within five years of bottoming out. The Pens and Chicago both won cups in that time frame after bottoming out with sub-sixty point seasons.

Assuming that Edmonton bottomed out in 2013, winning by 2018 fits the pattern. Also, if you look at the time elapsed between the years Pittsburgh and Chicago got their superstar players ('06 and '08) and their following cup wins ('09 and '10), it suggests the Oilers 2018 cup win would be right on time.

Sad to say, but I don't think it's that crazy of a suggestion.

The difference being that they started their upswing almost immediatly after drafting their prospective "wunderkids" (except for LA. They built a good team without crazy picks). The Oilers "kids" (Eberle will be 25?) have been playing sloppy, piss poor hockey and have been immersed in a losing culture for many years.

How do you think Hall and Eberle will react to an early losing streak?

Also, those teams had success in all rounds in the draft. The Oilers have not.

Edit: Beaten to it. Yeah, ask the Panthers or Caps about their success.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

I'd need more than 26 games and 5 points before I pencil him in the top 9

Oh, the irony!

[CSharp]

We'll find out in a year or two how much more No-Good the Oilers will be if McDavid is a bust.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CSharp

We'll find out in a year or two how No-Good the Oilers will be if McDavid is a bust.

We'll find out even if he isn't, because it takes more than one player to build a good team, and it takes more than a collection of flashy forwards to win.

McDavid or not. The Oilers are still little better than a bubble team in a few years.

[Street Pharmacist]

Dallas had one of, of not the next collection of forwards and missed the playoffs. You need, need, need depth and a stud on defence. Oilers don't have that

[Da_Chief]

[QUOTE=stamps;5375606]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Jesus , I know there is a lot of Edmonton and Saskatchewan transplants here but man o man , do not associate Calgary with those 2 teams ... that picture is offensive ....

I thought he was an Eskimos fan. Why is he mixing football and hockey? wearing Flames toque?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

I thought he was an Eskimos fan. Why is he mixing football and hockey? wearing Flames toque?

I believe that was when Hockey Day in Canada was in Lloydminster a couple of years ago.

Unfortunately, Lloyd is Rider and Oiler territory.

[calgarybornnraised]

Why do people keep saying,oh new management ,new coach that will make it better. Last time I checked the GM and Coach don't lace up the skates and play. I understand they will help but it is up to the players to buy in and fight. After watching the Oilers with their players I don't think their smart enough.

Oh and p.s. HF is terrible, first time I went there and what a joke. is it a bunch of kids having a pissing match?

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by TX_Flame

All of those teams found serviceable to excellent talent in the later rounds of the draft beyond the no brainers that were their rewards for well timed ineptitude. They all had significant talent on D and in net. For each of those examples one can also point to teams such as Washington, NYI, and the Oilers themselves to prove that it takes more than sucking your way into a bunch of #1 overall picks to build a Stanley Cup Champion.

It should be noted with the Caps that while they aren't cup winners yet they did have dramatic improvement following getting their superstar. It took the Caps four seasons to reach 108 points after they got Ovechkin.

Really, it's hard to pick out counter examples to the Oilers' situation because these so-called generational talents just don't come around that often. Ovechkin is a generational scoring talent, Crosby has been the best player in the world for ages and Toews appears to be the best leader the league has seen in a long time. Tavares, though great, doesn't seem so unique.

If McDavid lives up to the hype, Crosby is probably the only real comparison since the 2004 lockout. Combine that with the promise of improved organisational leadership and it's not unreasonable to think the Oilers will be strong cup contenders in short order.

Of course nothing is for sure. It's all speculation. My point is not that the Oilers will certainly win even though I think that MacLean's prediction is reasonable. I think looking at the turnarounds from being brutal to being champs of recent cup winners and the impact of generational talent supports that his prediction is a reasonable bit of speculation.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by polak

The difference being that they started their upswing almost immediatly after drafting their prospective "wunderkids" (except for LA. They built a good team without crazy picks). The Oilers "kids" (Eberle will be 25?) have been playing sloppy, piss poor hockey and have been immersed in a losing culture for many years.

How do you think Hall and Eberle will react to an early losing streak?

Also, those teams had success in all rounds in the draft. The Oilers have not.

Edit: Beaten to it. Yeah, ask the Panthers or Caps about their success.

That's true. Thankfully, McDavid hasn't been in that culture. I say 'thankfully' not because I like the Oilers but because it has been horrible to watch so much young talent (such as Eberle) just getting ruined by a terribly run organisation and it would be awful to see that happen to McDavid.

We've yet to see what their new leadership group can do about that culture. For the sake of not watching young guys having their potential squandered through leadership incompetence, I hope it improves. I would rather watch amazing and inspiring talents in the league providing a team I don't like with success than have a league where those young guys get ruined simply because they lost the draft lottery.

[Red]

Are the Oilers a McD team now? That should make Hall, RNH and the rest of their "stars" happy. An 18 year old taking their spotlight away.

Can you see a problem with having those egos clash?

[YoungGuns]

Considering Hall and Eberle were ecstatic about CM and rave about his skills in their interviews, I doubt they will have a problem. They are probably just happy that the team is going to start going up this year. When you listen to all of Hall's interviews ont he radio he seems nothing like the guy people portray him to be.

[GoJetsGo]

An important point not raised often enough is that the Oilers don't just lack a serviceable defense... they are completely devoid of the concept as a team.

Even if they had a serviceable d-corp (they do not), the forwards have no experience or inclination toward playing team defense.

That absolute gong show is a lot farther away from being fixed than adding an 18 year old offensive phenom. No one on that team is competent playing a defensive game and they have no idea where to be on the ice when they're not attacking.

That disaster is a long, long way from being fixed.

[Zach]

Originally Posted by polak

I will never forget when he suggested Halifax gets a team and they split the conferences by North and South.

Vancouver playing Halifax 4 hours ahead/behind for the visiting team.

Moron.

He still knows more than anyone else here combined.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Zach

He still knows more than anyone else here combined.

Unlikely, considering some of the people who are on here.

But even if true, what matters at present is what he doesn't know – or doesn't choose to think about.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by stamps

he is from Red Deer, which is definitely pro Edmonton ... ...

*shakes fist*

[TX_Flame]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

It should be noted with the Caps that while they aren't cup winners yet they did have dramatic improvement following getting their superstar. It took the Caps four seasons to reach 108 points after they got Ovechkin.

Really, it's hard to pick out counter examples to the Oilers' situation because these so-called generational talents just don't come around that often. Ovechkin is a generational scoring talent, Crosby has been the best player in the world for ages and Toews appears to be the best leader the league has seen in a long time. Tavares, though great, doesn't seem so unique.

If McDavid lives up to the hype, Crosby is probably the only real comparison since the 2004 lockout. Combine that with the promise of improved organisational leadership and it's not unreasonable to think the Oilers will be strong cup contenders in short order.

Of course nothing is for sure. It's all speculation. My point is not that the Oilers will certainly win even though I think that MacLean's prediction is reasonable. I think looking at the turnarounds from being brutal to being champs of recent cup winners and the impact of generational talent supports that his prediction is a reasonable bit of speculation.

John Tavares came into the league with pretty significant hype as well. The rule that allowed McDavid to enter the OHL early is colloquially known as the Tavares rule, after all. While the Caps, and the Isles, for that matter, did make significant improvement as regular season teams, neither one of them are built to be great playoff teams. The main difference between them and Pitt/Chi/LA?
1. Building a team by finding NHLers throughout the draft, not just with high 1st round picks.
2. Balanced teams. (Talent in all 3 position groups F, D, G.)
When it comes to these departments, the Oilers are not on the same planet as any of the teams you mentioned. Heck, they're significantly worse than any of my counter examples.

[TX_Flame]

Originally Posted by calgarybornnraised

Why do people keep saying,oh new management ,new coach that will make it better. Last time I checked the GM and Coach don't lace up the skates and play. I understand they will help but it is up to the players to buy in and fight. After watching the Oilers with their players I don't think their smart enough.

Oh and p.s. HF is terrible, first time I went there and what a joke. is it a bunch of kids having a pissing match?

I guess they hope the new GM has a clue about how to build a champion (like he did in Boston) and the new coach will be able to get better performance out of the available talent, like Hartley did for us.

Personally, Chia kind of scares me. For instance, we all know that Hall is a talented but 1 dimensional scoring machine who doesn't play in his own zone or make his teammates a whole lot better. In Boston, Chia was able to turn a guy like that into Tyler Seguin and Dougie. I'm not so impressed with McLellan. After all, in SJ he had a very good, balanced team, but he could never get them to play up to their talent level in the playoffs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TX_Flame

I guess they hope the new GM has a clue about how to build a champion (like he did in Boston) and the new coach will be able to get better performance out of the available talent, like Hartley did for us.

Personally, Chia kind of scares me. For instance, we all know that Hall is a talented but 1 dimensional scoring machine who doesn't play in his own zone or make his teammates a whole lot better. In Boston, Chia was able to turn a guy like that into Tyler Seguin and Dougie. I'm not so impressed with McLellan. After all, in SJ he had a very good, balanced team, but he could never get them to play up to their talent level in the playoffs.

A bit of revisionist history there.

Chiarelli was having trouble signing Kessel.

Burke was interested and, instead of offer-sheeting him, basically offered Chiarelli the same compensation by way of trade.

Chiarelli had little choice (much like the Hamilton deal)

What saved Chiarelli's butt was that Toronto subsequently fell apart and those picks became a 2nd and a 9th (unexpected at the time of the trade).

And even with the 9th, Boston was very fortunate that Hamilton fell that far.

Chiarelli deserves no credit whatsoever for that trade, IMO.