Iran Nuclear Deal Reached

[CaptainCrunch]

There are some questions around the inspection process, Iran's ability to continue to work on more efficient centrifuge systems, Their ability to trade enriched Uranium for more natural uranium at a heightened ratio and the The disposition of its heavy water reactor, that are going to need clarification.

Also the Inspection process doesn't seem to be all that strong, as Iran it sounds like can declare a site as non declared which can put it off limits to inspections.

Even if the inspectors get an inkling that research is happening on a non declared military or research facility they can't just inspect it, they have to basically it sounds like get Iranian approval.

No matter what happens, this agreement is going to pass, but I think Obama is going to be force to use his Veto.



I'm not saying that its a bad deal or a good deal yet, its too soon into this agreement to know, but its going to have to pass through hearings and we should get a better idea of the mechanics of how this is going to work.

[Huntingwhale]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...lost/30062147/

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

There are some questions around the inspection process, Iran's ability to continue to work on more efficient centrifuge systems, Their ability to trade enriched Uranium for more natural uranium at a heightened ratio and the The disposition of its heavy water reactor, that are going to need clarification.

Also the Inspection process doesn't seem to be all that strong, as Iran it sounds like can declare a site as non declared which can put it off limits to inspections.

Even if the inspectors get an inkling that research is happening on a non declared military or research facility they can't just inspect it, they have to basically it sounds like get Iranian approval.

No matter what happens, this agreement is going to pass, but I think Obama is going to be force to use his Veto.



I'm not saying that its a bad deal or a good deal yet, its too soon into this agreement to know, but its going to have to pass through hearings and we should get a better idea of the mechanics of how this is going to work.

Quite honestly, it's all a bit of a sham. Iran is a nuclear capable country. They could build a bomb within a few weeks.

The whole concept of nuclear non-proliferation is flawed to begin with. What defines when a nuclear bomb is created? When you screw in the last screw on the missile?

The simple fact of the matter is that many countries are nuclear capable and could have nuclear weapons within weeks. Most countries with working nuclear facilities would fall under this category (Canada included). On top of that many countries have close allies that would supply them with weapons. Saudi Arabia is a phone call away from acquiring a weapon from Pakistan.

A major issue is that no one actually wants to enforce nuclear non-proliferation. You can run a civilian program without any weapons grade nuclear material. Yet countries are allowed to retain the capability to enrich and even a certain amount of weapons grade material.

What this is really about is politics. Both the US and Iran will now treat this as some kind of victory and use it as a political tool. Obama gets to show the world that his foreign policy wasn't a failure. Iran gets to show its population that it stood up to the great Satan.

It was unlikely that Iran was ever going to take that next step anyways, which is actually testing a weapon. The only thing this would accomplish is an arms race with Saudi Arabia, who they are already currently at war with in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, etc...

[Thor]

Originally Posted by blankall

I don't disagree with you that there are people opposed to the regime. I'm just not sure that providing the regime with large amounts of financial support "opens Iran up". It's not North Korea. People have access to the internet. You can freely fly in and out of Iran. The issue is a theocratic government that has total control over the country.

Overall, I think this move will be pretty inconsequential to any kind of political change in Iran.

Think of it like Cuba. The longer the great satan can be blamed for their hardships, the better off the theocrats can rule. The ridiculously young average age of this population means we have a real shot now with open trade relations is to open this nation up and allow the western influence to grow again as it was in the past.

The pressure for this deal was on the theocrats, they did this for their self survival even though they did not want it, in fact that is why they keep focusing on Israel because they need to support their own base.

BUT the trend will be for a more liberal society with the youth there.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Thor

Think of it like Cuba. The longer the great satan can be blamed for their hardships, the better of the theocrats can rule. The ridiculously young average age of this population means we have a real shot now with open trade relations is to open this nation up and allow the western influence to grow again as it was in the past.

The pressure for this deal was on the theocrats, they did this for their self survival even though they did not want it, in fact that is why they keep focusing on Israel because they need to support their own base.

BUT the trend will be for a more liberal society with the youth there.

I have my doubts that this society will open up, the one big difference is that yes there are young people there, but there is also a deeply religious portion of that youth population that is being run through their religious training and they are going to be the future rulers of that Islamic State.

Also those Theocratic control and indoctrinate their armed revolutionary guard who showed during the Arab Spring that they aren't afraid to cast a very wide net in terms of shutting down groups opposed to their rule.

[WCW Nitro]

Does anyone really think that even if they had nukes, that Iran would actually use them? All this complaining by Israel and Saudi Arabia is because they wanted Iran crippled economically and militarily.

[T@T]

A deal with Iran isn't a deal, they can't be trusted.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by peter12

An excellent article on Iran by the great correspondent, Peter Hitchens.

Iran: Past the Paranoia

Great, great article by sometime who's views I rarely agree with

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by T@T

A deal with Iran isn't a deal, they can't be trusted.

You could say the same thing about America

[Thor]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I have my doubts that this society will open up, the one big difference is that yes there are young people there, but there is also a deeply religious portion of that youth population that is being run through their religious training and they are going to be the future rulers of that Islamic State.

Also those Theocratic control and indoctrinate their armed revolutionary guard who showed during the Arab Spring that they aren't afraid to cast a very wide net in terms of shutting down groups opposed to their rule.

This is simply not true, there are youth that are hardliners, but the facts on the ground are that we have an opportunity to help turn Iran around, and so many of the experts on Iran agree, this is the ideal route.

The only ones against this are the old stand by's, Right wingers, Israel. Hitchens would be thrilled at this decision and would be out there today mocking those who think a peace deal, a nuclear deal is a bad thing..

http://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-le...ays-1436323115

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nazila...b_6664786.html

There are two versions of Iran. One is the image of ideologically driven men and women chanting, "Death to America!" The other is a sea of protesting Iranians, expressing their anger against the Islamic regime. These two versions have coexisted for nearly two decades. Many in the West have hoped that the second group would one day revolt and rid themselves and the world of the Islamic regime.

But there is a third version of Iran that can upend this calculus.

This third Iran appeared last November in full force after a 30-year-old musician passed away of cancer. A few text messages on Viber, a mobile application that allows users to call and send free text messages to one another, drew tens of thousands of people onto the streets. The crowds gathered in dozens of cities, including the capital city of Tehran, where Morteza Pashaei, the musician, had passed away. The country had not seen such crowds since the 2009 uprising, when hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated against what they thought was a fraudulent election.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by T@T

A deal with Iran isn't a deal, they can't be trusted.

Thanks for your input Netanyahu.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

You could say the same thing about America

Think of how much infighting there is with the Dems vs. GOP... agreements may not even be necessarily binding between administrations.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Thor

Think of it like Cuba. The longer the great satan can be blamed for their hardships, the better off the theocrats can rule. The ridiculously young average age of this population means we have a real shot now with open trade relations is to open this nation up and allow the western influence to grow again as it was in the past.

The pressure for this deal was on the theocrats, they did this for their self survival even though they did not want it, in fact that is why they keep focusing on Israel because they need to support their own base.

BUT the trend will be for a more liberal society with the youth there.

Not sure Cuba is the best comparable. Cuba was already very modernized and their former benefactor, the USSR, no longer existed. It was just a case of the USA being behind the times and holding a grudge. So Cuba was a case of relations following liberalization, not the other way around.

Iran is an entirely different situation. You have a repressed liberal population. The government continues to push towards its dream of a #####e Caliphate. It spends billions on funding and promoting #####e militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. I don't think its anywhere in their plan to modernize and back away from their religious ambitions.

Also, as CC said, the views of the "youth" vary greatly. There is definitely a liberal group of youth within the major cities. However, there are large portions of Iran that retain their desire for conservative lifestyles. It sounds like you are making a lot of the assumptions that people made about the Arab Spring. That people were revolting because they wanted a liberal democracy, which did not end up being the case.

In Iran a supposedly "moderate" leader was elected in 2013. Since then, the government has increased executions, cracked down on minorities, expanded its military operations in surrounding countries, etc...

[PostandIn]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

You could say the same thing about America

One wonders where we'd be if the US and Brits hadn't unseated Moseddegh in '53. Democratically elected - check, secular - check. But the naive fool had the temerity to want a fair share of oil wealth as the resource owner. The response for that? One coup d'etat coming up! And the west wonders why Iranian rhetoric is so over the top and much of their behaviour, like ongoing funding and organization of anti-US terrorism, is what it is. All this crap didn't start with the storming of the US embassy in 1980. The US and the Brits have reaped what they've sown. The situation we have today is nothing if not predictable.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by blankall

Not sure Cuba is the best comparable. Cuba was already very modernized and their former benefactor, the USSR, no longer existed. It was just a case of the USA being behind the times and holding a grudge. So Cuba was a case of relations following liberalization, not the other way around.

Oh wow no. Havana is my 2nd home, not only is Cuba not very modernized, but the suggestion a "grudge" to call their embargo is deeply insulting. No no, relations were cold, cold war like up until this year. Not to mention the fact that Cuba has had normal trade relations for most of the last 2 decades with Canada and the EU makes this about as utterly unrelated to Iran as you could possibly be. There is nothing "modernized" about Cuba, the US has devastated the daily life of the people of Cuba.

In Iran a supposedly "moderate" leader was elected in 2013. Since then, the government has increased executions, cracked down on minorities, expanded its military operations in surrounding countries, etc...

Its clear you guys did not read a thing me and others have posted about the youth movement in Iran. The republicans and right wingers want to demonize Iran, so you are in good company! Go ahead ignore Hitchens, Amenpour, and the host of other mid east experts that champion this deal because it will hurt the theocrats...

Apparently you think, sanctions, and adversarial approach to Iran is the solution?? I don't make assumptions based on anything but the ground swell of online opinion from Iran, which is forward thinking.

But go ahead, fear Iran like the republicans, the nuclear deal is just a stall tactic so they can nuke Israel and dominate their young population....

[Thor]

Expanding on this:

http://www.latimes.com/world/middlee...219-story.html

“As [President] Obama and John Kerry admitted, the 55 years of sanctions against Cuba have not worked and John Kerry himself said that by sanctions we have sanctioned ourselves not Cuba,” said Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, the leader of Friday prayers in Tehran. “Sanctions are futile against Iran."

- Hoshang Tale, former member of Iran's parliament
Conservative political analyst Hossian Royvaran agreed.

"Obama is doing a wise thing by normalizing relation with Cuba and has no option but make a deal with Iran and start lifting sanctions and normalizing with Iran too," Royvaran said.

Many liberal Iranians also envied Cuba’s new relationship with the U.S.

“Financially, Iran is in bad shape and the sanctions are so painful that Iran has no option but to compromise,” said Amir Hossian Sharifi Sistani, 35, an import-export manager, “Now Cuba and the U.S. are normalizing - then why not Iran and the U.S.?"

"God willing, Iran and the U.S., as Cuba and U.S. have done after more than 50 years of severed relations, will bury axes and at least bank transfer will be possible,” he said. “My son is working in an import-export company and cannot do a regular business, as bank transfer is impossible."

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Thor

Oh wow no. Havana is my 2nd home, not only is Cuba not very modernized, but the suggestion a "grudge" to call their embargo is deeply insulting. No no, relations were cold, cold war like up until this year. Not to mention the fact that Cuba has had normal trade relations for most of the last 2 decades with Canada and the EU makes this about as utterly unrelated to Iran as you could possibly be. There is nothing "modernized" about Cuba, the US has devastated the daily life of the people of Cuba.




Its clear you guys did not read a thing me and others have posted about the youth movement in Iran. The republicans and right wingers want to demonize Iran, so you are in good company! Go ahead ignore Hitchens, Amenpour, and the host of other mid east experts that champion this deal because it will hurt the theocrats...

Apparently you think, sanctions, and adversarial approach to Iran is the solution?? I don't make assumptions based on anything but the ground swell of online opinion from Iran, which is forward thinking.

But go ahead, fear Iran like the republicans, the nuclear deal is just a stall tactic so they can nuke Israel and dominate their young population....

ok...

Anyways, no one is saying that Iran plans to nuke Israel. In fact, the far greater conflict right now is between Sunni and #####e nations.

The problem with expecting a revolution in Iran is that leadership in Iran is derived from the leaders being the head of the #####e religion and any challenge to them is heresy. I don't dispute that there are many young people yearning for freedom. In fact, there are millions of them. Unfortunately Iran is a country of about 80 million people, and the majority still profess loyalty to the Ayatollahs.

Not only do you have to deal with the religious nutjobs, but the Ayatollahs have done a very good job of creating other means of support trough the military, secret police, corruption, nepotism, and bribery.

I don't disagree with you, that people in Iran want freedom. My point is that it's going to be a lot harder to come by than you are making it out to be. Although I hope I'm wrong, the Ayatollahs are not going anywhere soon.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by blankall

The problem with expecting a revolution in Iran is that leadership in Iran is derived from the leaders being the head of the #####e religion and any challenge to them is heresy. I don't dispute that there are many young people yearning for freedom. In fact, there are millions of them. Unfortunately Iran is a country of about 80 million people, and the majority still profess loyalty to the Ayatollahs.

Apperantly you have not read anything previously posted. But ok, 44 million of Iran is under 30 years of age. The majority of them are liberal leaning, by Iranian definitions.

The "majority" still profess loyalty to the Ayatollahs... Ok, you are aware that if you do not profess loyalty, you will be imprisoned, killed, tortured...

Castro has massive support, so does Putin... So obviously those are the genuinely held ideals of those populations.

Not only do you have to deal with the religious nutjobs, but the Ayatollahs have done a very good job of creating other means of support trough the military, secret police, corruption, nepotism, and bribery.

Will continue to be a struggle. I'm curious, would you move us back to isolating China, or the current method of not only engaging China, but making them a major economic partner?

I don't disagree with you, that people in Iran want freedom. My point is that it's going to be a lot harder to come by than you are making it out to be. Although I hope I'm wrong, the Ayatollahs are not going anywhere soon.

Can you please point out where I said this would be easy? I have only said quite clearly that we have 2 options:

1. Sanctions, isolationism against Iran. Israel cheers!

2. Lifting sanctions, bringing Iran into the modern world.

If it takes a decade or a few, one clearly is the better solution. You made the point of Cuba being a modern place if ONLY we lifted sanctions.... But nope, Iran becoming a part of the modern diplomatic world is only going to hurt hardliner isolationists. You seem to agree with the worries of the right wing US politicians, usually that means you are on the wrong side of history..

[Thor]

Sorry I'm being so salty about this, but my humanist group in Iceland helped bring a refugee from Iran 2 months ago, she is living with me.

The story she tells, about her generation, (she's 25) is that the vast majority want to become like the west, and this news is the biggest celebration for her generation.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

You could say the same thing about America

OK. A deal with America isn't a deal, they can't be trusted.

But, I still trust them more than Iran.

Originally Posted by Iggy City

Thanks for your input Netanyahu.

I'm far from Jewish or religious, I just can't trust a nation or people that slowly strangles their citizens to death in public for being gay, stones their citizens to death for being horny and publicly states they want to nuke another race of people from the face of the earth.

Sorry if I seem unreasonable to you.