CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

HG is not turned unless he turned last night

He was definitely not turned yesterday, unless the hosts told him to go after mrkaj while Oling attacked squiggs, (which is highly unlikely), and squiggs could not have been either. (unless he and oling planned the fight with each other to get the other player credibility upon the other's lynch/night kill, but I think they would prefer to go after someone else and keep their numbers intact)

Therefore those two lists being similar, while opposite of mine, could not be a coordinated turned plan.

I will go back to post 1403.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Vote Count

With 15 alive, it takes 8 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 5 votes to deadline lynch.


Voted:
East Coast Flame (7): GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man, East Coast Flame
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner, Puxlut

The deadline is Friday, June 5th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

Diss isn't scum either mrk got to 6 votes before devo unvoted. Diss would have moved, mrKajz didn't with his whole it's scummy to save yourself. No way you leave 2 votes on the table available to save yourself.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If I was a host why would I be on board with following GGG's ideas on who we should vote for and why would I vote for peanut?

For the same reason that Oling agreed to it. A host would go along with the vote to not stick out. If everyone voted with GGG every time then the gusts could blend in without detection. If we are at 5 town vs 4 scum then the scum just need 1 wrong move before the town loses. If the spore turns a passenger and/or a townie is lynched then the scum wins. If all scum join in GGG then it's only a matter of time before the scum wins.

[GGG]

I'm leaning pretty strongly to HG being scum. Maybe even more so than peanut. The stuff between him and mrkajz seems almost staged.

Not ready to vote yet. More input is required.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'm leaning pretty strongly to HG being scum. Maybe even more so than peanut. The stuff between him and mrkajz seems almost staged.

Not ready to vote yet. More input is required.

At work right now but will post when I am off duty.

[starseed]

We have until Tuesday night. Anyone who has not posted a list of where they think everyone stands should do so immediately.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'm leaning pretty strongly to HG being scum. Maybe even more so than peanut. The stuff between him and mrkajz seems almost staged.

Not ready to vote yet. More input is required.

It wasn't staged at all. If you have anything you want me to comment on let me know.

[dissentowner]

If I had to guess it would be town: myself, GGG, pux, starseed
Host: bizaro, squiggs
Turned: HG

Did I miss anyone?

[dissentowner]

Ug, tired. Peanut. Turned.

[dissentowner]

Ugh again. PE, leaning toward town.

[GGG]

Diss can you provide some reasons for your list.

[squiggs96]

Here are the lists so far, ordered by who hasn't voted on Day 8's opening post:

bizaro86

squiggs96
Town - squiggs, GGG, Pux, HG, starseed
Turned - Peanut, PE
Host - bizaro, diss

Puxlut

GGG

Peanut

Party Elephant

starseed
Town -
Turned -
Host - PE, Peanut

Hockeyguy15
Town - GGG, Pux, starseed, squiggs, HG
Turned - PE, Peanut
Host - Diss, bizaro

dissentowner
Town - dissentowner, GGG, Pux, starseed, PE
Turned - HG, Peanut
Host - bizaro, squiggs



There have been multiple people in here who have stated there isn't much talk. They are right. We need to be more active, and that starts with making lists. Only three of us have made complete lists. GGG and starseed have given partial lists. Others have nothing.

[Hockeyguy15]

GGG right around this post is where I started to wonder about mrkajz being a host. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=592

The vote count is this, and I post a possibly link between mrkajz and Diss if Diss flips host, but now we know that mrkajz flipped host. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1023

mrkajz comes in and defends Diss, doesn't comment on the potential link between them and I bring it up again. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1094

I did this vote breakdown of the votes against me at the time, showing exactly why I thought mrkajz was a host. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1137

The votes are 4 me, 3 ECF and 1 mrkajz. Everyone had moved off Diss and I didn't think ECF was a host so I put my vote to mrkajz hoping to get the heat on him. http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1166

ECF is lynched, I post about mrkajz right away keeping his name in the spotlight
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1271
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1272
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1273

I do some voting analysis and say I think he is a host
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1311
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1313

I try and show why I think the hosts moved the vote off mrkajz
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1324

I keep posting about him, hoping to get people to vote for him
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1336
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1356
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1361
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1410

I think this is where you are saying I was almost caught on day 4?
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1453
I hadn't voted yet because I had asked PE this question and wanted to hear his answer because I was on the fence about voting for mrkajz or PE because they were the leading vote getters at the time
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1405

While I am waiting for PE I ask mrkajz to comment on a previous post I had to him
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1475

I reply to a post from mrkajz, stating why I think his arguments against me are BS
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1499

PE has replied to my question and mrkajz has continued his manufactured arguments against me and has voted starseed to make the count 3 PE, 3 starseed, 2 mrkajz. I then vote mrkajz to make it 3,3,3.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1514

I bring up my post showing why I think the votes were moved off mrkajz a couple days before.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1766

I keep on mrjkaz
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1772
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1776
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1778
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1780
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1792
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1797
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1800
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1883
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1888
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1898
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1901
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1928
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1942
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1946
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1953

The next day I say I am still ready to lynch mrkajz
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2114

I bring him up again
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2261

I'm busy at work, mrkajz takes the opportunity to try and get me out again.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2308

Then I get sidetracked with Diss going after me again

You ask me to defend this list
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2363
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2367
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2376

Oling then gets me sidetracked going back and looking at Timbo's posts

Unfortunately I have been sidetracked and taken away from mrkajz, the votes are adding up on Timbo, Diss is trying to bait me into voting for Timbo, I'm trying to decided if I think PE or Peanut are hosts.

I bring up mrkajz again.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2530
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2541
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2545
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2590
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=2624


GGG I don't think I can defend myself from your idea that I am a host and my arguments against mrkajz were staged anymore than this. If I was really a host, why would I spend so much time trying to get him lynched even when he had fallen out of the spotlight?His arguments against me were manufactured, mine against him were not.

[Mazrim]

Vote Count

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 3 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (7): bizaro86, squiggs96, Puxlut, GGG, Party Elephant, starseed, Hockeyguy15

Voted
Peanut (1): dissentowner
dissentowner (1): Peanut

The deadline is Tuesday, July 7th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[dissentowner]

I find it amusing that HG and I both think bizaro is a host but he thinks I am one as well. That makes a lot of sense.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

Diss can you provide some reasons for your list.

Ok. It is obvious why I believe you and pux are town. Starseed's only real suspicious thing was that he took over for lego man, nothing else seems to point at being scum for me but I have been wrong on these things. Same with PE, I just don't see scum play there. I think I might have gotten squiggs and HG backward the more I look at it. squiggs style has definitely changed imo as the game went on whereas HG had his supposed spat with mrjk..whatever the rest is and has been targeting town for the most part. The fact that I have gone along with you and him at times on mrjk and yet he still is trying to make me out as a host makes me almost certain he is on the scum side. He has also gone after PE who has really done nothing scummy since the start of the game. Peanut has been on everyone's suspect list for most of the game and she has kind of stuck into the shadows. Bizaro is a huge red flag for me, he has been instrumental on most town lynches and I would be more than happy to cast my vote his way during this lynch. As we have not come to a final decision on the vote I will unvote for now. Your track record is much better than mine so I am more than happy to vote with whatever you and put decide.

Unvote

[dissentowner]

pux, not put

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Scum are Mrkajz, Peanut and someone are scum

vote mrkajz

We can also know that oling is unturned today as if he's turned it's means Squiggs is scum and you wouldn't see the battle going on right now. Same with Squiggs.

If I'm wrong here and we make it to night meaning a townie has the spore pass it to pux as that means we get to play tomorrow.

GGG, was this "oling is unturned" stuff misdirection to protect your plan for a night kill and get more information out of oling before his death? If not I'm confused as to what changed your mind.

[bizaro86]

Since we're all posting lists, I'll post one and then follow up with a few posts explaining my thoughts. I went back through a bunch of stuff and made notes, it's too much for one post.

Town: Pux, GGG, myself
Host: PE/Starseed
Town potentially turned:Squiggs, Hockey Guy
Wildcard: I see potential for a Peanut/Diss scum team along with mrkajz. If that's the case then PE/Starseed are probably townies, and I owe PE a big apology.

Hopefully what follows will make up for not being around much on the weekend.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Vote 1 without known town
activeStick (8):bizaro86, Hockeyguy15,
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, mrkajz44
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1):

<snip>
Vote 1: lends itself to peanut plus Mrkajz, plus one of HG or Biz

This is interesting to me. While the scum voting "random third party townie who won't get lynched" like peanut makes sense, I think voting for the 2nd place vote-getter is a likely scum strategy, especially early on. It lets their votes blend in with townies which makes them easier to defend, and in vote analysis it doesn't show up as a vote on a townie until that person gets lynched. That would imply that one of starseed or party elephant are scum.

They are my two top choices from before going back over the thread, so I understand if this gets discounted as confirmation bias (I know what that means also, PE). On the other hand, the weird mistakes from Lego (XXX) as well as the switch out and then starseed posting way less frequently than I would have expected from previous history suggests that there is something suspicious there. Two posters playing the same character who are both suspicious is a real red flag, imo. I won't re-hash my party elephant arguments here.

I have party/starseed as top choices, with peanut as a strong wildcard choice for scum.