CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'll say this again but send the spore to Seb if you get it tonight. His zero involvement is hurting the town. Don't waste it on pux as she is confirmed town until she gets the spore once which she will tell us if it happens. Real confirmed townies at end game are of a huge value.

I saw this earlier but could not remember if it was you or squiggs who said it. I thought as the genetic anomaly Pux can take the spore without it having any effect on her. Why would we not just give it to her in the first place?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by starseed

I saw this earlier but could not remember if it was you or squiggs who said it. I thought as the genetic anomaly Pux can take the spore without it having any effect on her. Why would we not just give it to her in the first place?

Because as soon as she gets the spore she loses her power and we lose her as confirmed town two nights later when the spore could be passed back to her. I woukd rather have pux as confirmed town with a 50/50 chance of losing Seb then losing puxes confirmed town status.

This assumes, as I believe the agent is unturned.

[starseed]

I am going to be checking in, but won't have much time to focus tonight.

I think Oling could very well be turned, or perhaps even the clandestine SebC, but I do also have a few concerns about Squiggs:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Is anyone up for picking sides on an HG vs. diss vote off? We all decide which of these two is a host and vote to lynch one of them?

Pros? Cons? Would either of them agree to this?

This post really stands out for me in setting up a scenario of lynching two arguing players. It is really easy to see why a host would advocate this if he knew those two were town players. He should be acutely aware of how last game went with townspeople fighting amongst themselves. If squiggs were a host, it would have the added benefit of putting heat on the survivor.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I really hope ECF is scum if the votes stay on him. If not, mrk did an excellent job getting neutral votes to ECF and votes off of him to ECF

This bugs me on two levels. The first is that he is setting up beforehand that he had doubts about the ECF vote. As a host, it could be an effective strategy to try to stop an unstoppable lynch to be able to say 'I told you so' afterwards. And today he reiterated that he did not believe in the ECF vote.

The second level is that it again points to mrkaj when ECF flips town. Another target primed and ready to go.

I have decided to keep my vote on PE tonight with the possibility to switch to mrkaj if needed. I am going to keep my squiggs suspicions on the back burner until more information comes out.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by starseed

This post really stands out for me in setting up a scenario of lynching two arguing players. It is really easy to see why a host would advocate this if he knew those two were town players. He should be acutely aware of how last game went with townspeople fighting amongst themselves. If squiggs were a host, it would have the added benefit of putting heat on the survivor.

When the townspeople fought amongst themselves last game the scum allowed it to happen. They encouraged it and added fuel to the fire. They never once tried to stop it. I was trying to stop it, not realizing they had stopped it themselves.

Originally Posted by starseed

This bugs me on two levels. The first is that he is setting up beforehand that he had doubts about the ECF vote. As a host, it could be an effective strategy to try to stop an unstoppable lynch to be able to say 'I told you so' afterwards. And today he reiterated that he did not believe in the ECF vote.

The second level is that it again points to mrkaj when ECF flips town. Another target primed and ready to go.

I voted to lynch mrkajz. I publicly supported and backed ECF, so that people would not vote for him. I thought he was a townie. It turned out he was. I actively tried getting people to vote for mrkajz instead of ECF. It turns out the opposite happened. What mrkajz is calling a scum move off of HG to him, I am calling a scum movement off of mrkajz to ECF. I was very disappointed we lynched ECF. If we had lynched mrkajz and he flipped town, there is zero chance I'd be going after ECF. I'd likely be continuing my quest against Lego, which is now you, starseed. I definitely didn't believe in the ECF vote. It's why I campaigned against and voted against it. I tried rally the mrkajz vote and nearly got it there. It looks like it will succeed this time. I feel he is scum. I hope that feeling is confirmed.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

The post by Mazrim was very good for Seb in aligning him with the town. I didn't think Seb was scum before. He played similar to how I did in Smash Bros. where he is being kind of a jerk, the attention is on him all the time, and it's a very risky move if he was a host. It's a brilliant move if he's a host, but I don't think he is one.

Squiggs96, could you please explain why you didn't have SebC as an "option?"

Others, including yourself I believe, seemed to be putting him on a "pretty good chance to be" town list.

The crux of the discussion wasn't what you wanted to label me, it was why you didn't label SebC the same thing. If you thought I got the spore because the other townies thought I was town, why didn't you mention SebC as well in your early posts?

Unfortunately, Seb isn't searchable and that's why you seem to call him so maybe you did address this, but I don't think so.

Bizaro86 also noticed this:

Originally Posted by bizaro86

1a) I find it interesting that squiggs opened the day with a discussion of confirmed town, and mentions pux and oling but not Seb. Seb was a stronger confirm than oling, imo, as Mazrim basically came in the thread and told us.

[Party Elephant]

Let's break this post down:

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Since Seb appears to be the only one who hasn't voted, I'll address my suggestion for voting Party Elephant primarily to you. My mason telepath vibes are getting a potential Starseed/Lego vote from you, based on previous oblique comments about that player.

I think it would be better for you (and anyone else who's thinking of switching) to vote for party. The Lego/Starseed vote is not a bad one, the substitution especially strikes me as suspicious, but here's why I'm keeping my vote on party for now.



This vote reasoning is pretty scummy. Basically, he starts from the position that since he's town the accusation of him is BS. "I'm voting for him cause he voted for me but don't worry it's not a revenge vote" Um. Ok.

I know it's BS. All I can do is state my defence. Nothing I say is proven until I cardflip. The thing about a revenge vote is more of a jab at my day 1 playstyle where I made two votes on people who voted for me without a lot of other reasoning, which GGG called me out on. Considering how I have a fair bit of reasoning behind this vote I don't think you can say I'm just voting for starseed because he voted for me.

This was in response to HG asking about a potential Party/mrkajz link, (which seems credible). Party pointed to a vote/unvote sequence that seems scummy on its own, commenting that he's knows it can look like scum. Notice he doesn't actually deny a mrkajz link.

Again, what would be the point of that? If I just say "there is no link between me and mrkajz" would you believe it more?

There is no link between me and mrkajz.

Make a difference? No? I didn't think so.

I posted the evidence of why a link between me and mrkajz is dubious. I asked starseed if he thought it was staged and he has danced around the question, which in my opinion is scummy enough to get my vote.

Finally, I think the voting pattern is highly suspicious. MrKajz votes starseed, and the next vote only a few posts down the page is a Party Elephant vote for starseed. That essentially confirms the link, in my opinion, as they both latch on to the person most likely to get lynched other than themselves.

Party Elephants couched sort-of-denials of the link seem very suspicious to me when confronted with reasonable evidence of a link. My experience from the game when I was mafia was that it was actually pretty hard to out-and-out lie when typing something, especially when directly accused with the truth. I can see why they would be panicking, because if we link them and lynch one who turns host, that's a guaranteed host lynch two days in a row, which would get us 2/3rds of the way to our win condition.

So much wrong with this part. Where do I even begin? Your mind is already made up on my alignment, so posting my own reasons for voting for starseed apparently count for nothing.

I'm assuming by "couched" you mean coached, and once again you're wrong. The only coaching I've received in this game was right in the thread. Here are some examples:

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Go read some of the previous game (not all... that would take you all week!) I did that last game and found it kind of helped... You'll notice there was alot of lame chatter on the first day IIRC. But at least people were posting. It may give you an idea on how other people have played the game. But like others have said: every game is different. Some people hold their cards to their chest and others are vocal about their suspicions. And others are just clueless and ask lots of questions (<--- that's me last game.) This game I am going to try to be a combo of analytical and instinctual.

Originally Posted by GGG

The reason you voted for me was you were pissed you got voted for, now that you have thought about it you have come up with other justifications but you really should own your reasons for your vote.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I get the time difference thing, but here is an example of your body of work. Regardless of the time difference it's not like you are really replying with anything of importance.

Stuff happens during the day that you could comment on and reply to regardless of your time zone, it would just be delayed is all. Your views on people/theories are still valid and important even if they are later than ours.

There was another one by hockeyguy that I couldn't find where he said something along the lines of digging up quotes to back up my arguments rather than just making sweeping statements as that looks scummy. I found that one very helpful, even though it took me a couple of days to heed it since at that point I was thinking "hg is a host so don't trust a word he says". Anyways, thanks hg.

Is it really that hard to believe that as I gather new information and experience that my playstyle adjusts? I am, in fact, capable of making my own decisions without being coached.

As for being directly accused with the truth, well I haven't been so there's no need to lie.

As for your "if we link them and one flips host, that guarantees a host lynch of the other" statement. Wow. That is brutal. First of all, you haven't proven the link. If we lynch mrkajz and he flips host that doesn't prove anything about me. You'd be lynching a townie (me) for a very manufactured, even scummy reason. Notice how at no point have I defended mrkajz, I could even have gotten on board with lynching him before starseed shot up my suspicious list. My vote will stay where it is this round unless I'm presented with some really compelling evidence to switch it.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Why not vote for mrkajz44 and push him into the lead then? He was already winning when you made your vote and you thought he could be scum. If you already feel you've confirmed the link, why leave the vote to someone who has a chance of being turned already when you could just vote for the other guy?

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Unvote

Vote: mrkajz44

I'm now afraid that bizaro86 is working with mrkajz44. The pressure is on mrkajz44, bizaro86's has been vocal of the potential for mrkajz44 to be scum and is voting for Party Elephant (at least in part) because of his connection to mrkajz44, so why not just vote mrkajz44? I think you got to be skeptical of people who are happy to say so-and-so is possibly host, but not end up voting for him/her when the time comes without actually defending the person.

If they are indeed working together, if mrkajz44 still ends up lynched bizaro86 can say tomorrow how he always thought he was scum but if he was able to move the vote to Party Elephant and save mrkajz44 tomorrow he could say that "well there goes that connection, I'm going to look elsewhere now."

^What he said.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

MrKajz is already in the lead, so he doesn't need my vote to get lynched. However, I'm concerned that there could be an unvote for mrkajz and a vote for lego/starseed at the end of the day, that would have switched them in the vote order (at the time of my post) with starseed getting lynched.

Thus, my preference would be for mrkajz/party elephant to be one-two in votes.

Now that you've switched off starseed to mrkajz, that is less likely.

Also, I see the link being more from party's side, which makes him the more likely host in my opinion. For example, he voted starseed second, and he's the one with the lame defense. Thus, it's possible that party is host and mrkajz isn't, and party is trying to latch on to someone he knows is town and who looks likely to get lynched. Then he can get one the other hosts to point to the link later and say "they're linked and mrkajz was town so probably party is too."

Finally, I think party has been the quieter of the pair, so even if they're both host (which is the most likely scenario, imo) there's a greater chance he is the captain, which would add value to his lynch compared to getting either the engineer or second in command.

You're not providing any evidence to any of this! You're just saying I believe this, this is most likely, but you're not doing anything to prove it. Look where your wild speculation got you last round by the way:

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah, I definitely don't want to be linked with ECF. I'm genuinely voting for him, and when I voted for him that pushed him into a tie with HG. No way a scum team would do that. If he flips scum, I'll be thrilled. I'd encourage everyone to consider the three people who are tied. I think ECF is the most likely to be scum of the three, he is sort of the anti-HG, and I think he is doing it to try and slide by as a scum.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I’m not going to be around much today, so consider this my death post.

I’ve had a bad feeling about the 3 people that have been anointed “confirmed town”: Puxlut, Oling and Seb. The ONLY people who are confirmed town at this point in the game are Active and Girly.

You guys have put so much faith in them that you have essentially lynched me without any ability to defend myself. Just because Seb and Oling have some “bad feelings”. That is absurd. And as will see with my death, all that listening to these people will get you is another town death.

I am also extremely wary of Bizarro who seems to be the biggest slurper of these “confirmed townies” and is constantly pumping their tires and reminding us that they are super duper 100% confirmed town.

I guarantee that at least one of the three is scum, and Bizarro is highly likely.

Stop letting Seb off the hook with not explaining anything. That is a total cop out. Putting blind faith in him when he hasn’t done anything to earn it is ridiculous. But he is getting away with it for god knows why – especially with his number 1 fan Bizarro in his corner.

As for my other scum thoughts – Mrkajz has been at the top of my list for a while. I don’t like how Peanut is flying under the radar. Lego I could go 50/50 on.

My townie thoughts – I generally trust Squiggs the most. Pretty sure HG and Dissent are town, and I wish they would lay off each other and work together. Devo I think is probably town.

Not going to vote HG as I think he is town and he will probably be more helpful to the town down the road than I will be.

Reading back, I think Bizarro has really gotten on my radar today. It really seems he has been hiding behind the shield of the three “confirmed townies” and just trying to follow along with them. So let my final vote stand as this:
Unvote
Vote: bizaro86
Good luck friends! Hopefully I’ll see you on the other side!

Food for thought.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

This post really stands out for me in setting up a scenario of lynching two arguing players. It is really easy to see why a host would advocate this if he knew those two were town players. He should be acutely aware of how last game went with townspeople fighting amongst themselves. If squiggs were a host, it would have the added benefit of putting heat on the survivor.

I think that him already coming up with a plan when I don't die is also pretty telling:

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

I feel the resistance to wanting to be investigated might be fake in order to be investigated. If he creates enough doubt in people's minds that he might be turned, the GA investigates him and it won't find anything if he's a host. If someone acts guilty enough, then people can assume he's guilty. It will have wasted a night of investigation while there could be a couple of turned passengers out there if the GA investigates Oling if Oling is a host.

I mean he's the one who kept bringing it up, I wanted to drop it and let the Government Agent investigate who they wanted.




And in that post, as far as I can tell, is his only mention on why he didn't include SebC:

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

Another easy one. I'm town. I think it's a possibility if you are town that you have the spore. I'm not obsessed with Seb. You keep bringing that up, but I don't need to include him. And this is also what I'm getting at. Most people are placing Seb as confirmed town. I don't. I know what happened, but that doesn't mean I'm interpreting it the same way. ECF died warning of this. I had many concerns that were the same as his. This is one of them.

He doesn't have to believe either me or SebC are town, which is fine - caution is important. But his whole argument that I likely got the spore because at least a couple people thought I was town doesn't explain why he didn't mention SebC. I would argue that SebC had much greater claim to being a confirmed town, I mean I put him there (obviously with spore in play that may no longer be the case). I would argue Squiggs96 did as well with this post:

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

The post by Mazrim was very good for Seb in aligning him with the town

But interesting enough, he also cast doubt on all the players I considered confirmed townies (Puxlut, SebC and me ):

Originally Posted by squiggs96

So you worded something to Mazrim in a role neutral way. Why? He obviously knows everyone's roles and alignments. When whatever confirmation you were looking for came back, you would still not be allowed to quote it, so you could phrase it however you wanted. I'm puzzled as to what you asked, why you asked it that way, and where you were going with it. I know you're the cryptic post guy, but it seems odd to go about it in this way. The biggest thing I don't get is saying that you posted a question to Mazrim instead of just waiting for the answer and then posting the whole story.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Crazy, tinfoil hat, conspiracy theory time!

Oling's a host. Puxlut received the spore on day 0 and is now infected. Her end game has changed, so now she needs to recruit as many others to the infected side to achieve victory. By asking for the spore back, she is able to control where it goes. Oling wins when they and the turned account for 50% or more of the total living players, so he is happy when this happens. He knows she is turned because the hosts know of all turned players at all time. The hosts cannot be turned by receiving it, so he isn't afraid of having it sent to him. Since the town needs to kill/lynch the captain, second in command and the engineer to win, diverting the attention to the spore is a good plan. We, as townies, don't need to kill any of the turned; we just need to ensure they and the hosts don't account for at least half of the players.

The normal way of thinking (to me) of starting the game would be to send the spore to a passenger. We have all seen Oling be as good at mafia as anyone. He's crafty enough to either send it to another host to create confusion and deception, or play it off as though he received it himself when he's already turned someone.

If there was a counterclaim on Pux's anomaly it would help my tinfoil hat theory. It's not me, so this isn't a cryptic message like actieStick. I'd love to believe Pux is the anomaly, but in mafia I've been led astray many times. I want to believe her, but I don't want everyone to simply follow and confirm her town because she claimed anomaly and was vouched for by Oling. Everyone in Smash Bros thought HG15 was town for the vast majority of the game as well. That turned out poorly for us.

I will say that if he's right about mrkajz44 or I don't think there's a turned player when tomorrow comes, I will likely change my mind but there's a lot of stuff that makes me suspicious of him.

And as an added bonus:

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

The second part is because in my opening post in Smash I made a reference to wanting to kill the scum. I wanted to make a similar start here as well.

Admitting to trying to copy your playstyle last time seems sketchy to me.

[mrkajz44]

Well - it seems the vote is pretty much set, so its time to spill the (vanilla) beans.

There is no great reveal here, I am just a vanilla townie.

My best advice is for everyone to make sure every post you are making revolves around hunting scum. There are too many posts right now that don't focus on that, and in the famous words of Seb, it just creates noise.

The spore will only distract and the government agent is still out there (I hope) doing their work on it. Long posts back and forth between each other about small details just let the scum hide and watch.

Look at voting patterns, when people vote, reasoning, and try your best to view from multiple angles. Don't start with a conclusion and try to fit the evidence into what you've already decided. Start with 3 or 4 scenarios and look at things through different lenses and see which lens is the best focused.

My top picks for scum are clear. HG is my top pick, he clearly has an agenda and was likely saved by scum movement on the Day 3 vote. Watch for how he stars subtly steering tomorrow.

Starseed is not contributing like he did last game and did a great job showing up and just blending in. His predecessor Lego liked to do full town lists, and not really focus on anyone.

Timbo likes to pick apart posts, but he tends to do it by twisting words. It seems he knows he can't quite put the logic together, so a small "misinterpretation" of words helps the cause.

Diss loves to stand up and shout "look at how I am acting like the model townie"! He makes sure you know he is doing town things, almost to convince himself that he is acting how a townie would.

I am convinced 2 of those 4 are scum. Hunt them down.

[GGG]

Mrkajz,

What are your thoughts on Bizaro and devo?

Unvote
Vote: starseed
Sorry Buddy.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

When I signed up to play mafia, I badly underestimated the time commitment I was signing up for. Those days I would usually just read the posts once or twice, form an opinion and that was that. As the townie bodies have been piling up I realised that half-assing it wasn't acceptable so I committed to reading the thread more thoroughly and posting more detailed posts, with quotes to reference what I was talking about more specifically. I was trusting a hunch, which after all the much heavier reading I've done the last few days seems off base in hindsight. I don't think this explanation will satisfy you but it's all I've got. Diss said it much more eloquently today than I could, but my sentiment is the same:

Here's my last pitch for Party over mrkajz. If you look through party's development from raw new player to his posts now is this progression natural or coached. To me it seems he went from not really thinking through the game to where now he is a fairly high level contributer.

His stance is that he is spending much more time on the game now than he was originally. See quote above where he was talking about his day two accusations on HG. This is possibly true however to me the progression in tactics and demeanour seems coached.

[squiggs96]

unvote

Vote starseed

Maybe it's a bad precedent to start, but I believe mrk's death post. If he's town I don't want to lynch him. If he's a host then I'll take the risk of looking stupid. At this point I feel the best move for the town is voting starseed. I wanted to vote for him earlier so this makes it easier for me.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

unvote

Vote starseed

Maybe it's a bad precedent to start, but I believe mrk's death post. If he's town I don't want to lynch him. If he's a host then I'll take the risk of looking stupid. At this point I feel the best move for the town is voting starseed. I wanted to vote for him earlier so this makes it easier for me.

What specifically about his death post makes you believe he's town and what would scum say differently.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think Seb and oling were the likely 2 targets as eliminating known townies is important for scum.

Originally Posted by GGG

I'll say this again but send the spore to Seb if you get it tonight. His zero involvement is hurting the town.

My non-involvment is hurting the town? Your involvement is hurting the town! You are advocating the the town do what you state is scums best play.

vote: GGG

[Timbo]

SebC I can see your point but your vote towards GGG at this point in the game is not really doing much.
Do you not believe that one of our two vote leaders are scum? If no do you mind sharing

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

Here's my last pitch for Party over mrkajz. If you look through party's development from raw new player to his posts now is this progression natural or coached. To me it seems he went from not really thinking through the game to where now he is a fairly high level contributer.

His stance is that he is spending much more time on the game now than he was originally. See quote above where he was talking about his day two accusations on HG. This is possibly true however to me the progression in tactics and demeanour seems coached.

Well after over 1600+ posts to learn from I'm kinda sure he clued in as to how the game works don't you think?

[starseed]

Two hours to go and I am the front runner.

Unvote
Vote: mrkajz44

If I end up going down, I would put pressure on Squiggs tomorrow. However, having mrkajz44 escape lynch narrowly again may be a good scum indicator. PE was also squirming under pressure the way I would squirm as a mafia player (a million words per post).

For later in the game I would also consider Peanut as a sleeper host. She is like that sexy betch who was the first mole in Anderson Cooper's Mole game show. No one suspected her until it was all over.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

My non-involvment is hurting the town? Your involvement is hurting the town! You are advocating the the town do what you state is scums best play.

vote: GGG

I actually think the play is advisable for both scum and town depending on timing.

So day 3 when you were a non-host and contributing on a semi-regular basis and appearing to soften on your no noise stance and work with the town you were a good target.

Now the spore is being passed day 4 where you have been absolutely silent and provided no contribution and I would assume this will be your future pattern you are an excellent place to put the spore as being turned is no big loss from a scum hunting point of view.

A positive outcome is a non-host we can rely on the agents investigation to clear you and put you back in confirmed town pile for two days. Sending it to a random person who could be a host puts us back in the girly situation where relying on the agent to clear Doesn't work if they are host.

Sending it to pux costs us a truly confirmed town person and a free spore location that we can trust.

All in all best play for town right now is send it to you as each day without knowing where the spore is the increased likely hood that you have turned.

[Timbo]

I believe you both are sitting with 5 votes each.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I believe you both are sitting with 5 votes each.

Directed to starseed