CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[bizaro86]

Hockeyguy1534Oling_Roachinen31bizaro8622Timbo18Puxlut15GGG14dissentowner13SebC13mrkajz4412GirlySports12East Coast Flame11squiggs9610Party Elephant8Mazrim7Peanut7devo226activeStick4Lego Man3

A list of how many posts each person has made so far in this thread.

[bizaro86]

Hockeyguy1534Oling_Roachinen31bizaro8622Timbo18Puxlut15GGG 14dissentowner13SebC13mrkajz4412GirlySports12East Coast Flame11squiggs9610Party Elephant8Mazrim7Peanut7devo226activeStick4Lego Man3
Reposted due to my lack of formatting ability. If this doesn't work I give up, as I usually edit posts to ensure formatting works.

[devo22]

let me help you ...

34 - Hockeyguy15
31 - Oling_Roachinen
24 - bizaro86
18 - Timbo
15 - Puxlut
14 - GGG
13 - dissentowner
13 - SebC
12 - mrkajz44
12 - GirlySports
11 - East Coast Flame
10 - squiggs96
8 - Party Elephant
7 - Mazrim
7 - Peanut
7 - devo22
4 - activeStick
3 - Lego Man

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by devo22

let me help you ...

34 - Hockeyguy15
31 - Oling_Roachinen
24 - bizaro86
18 - Timbo
15 - Puxlut
14 - GGG
13 - dissentowner
13 - SebC
12 - mrkajz44
12 - GirlySports
11 - East Coast Flame
10 - squiggs96
8 - Party Elephant
7 - Mazrim
7 - Peanut
7 - devo22
4 - activeStick
3 - Lego Man

Thanks! I was just about to admit my absolute inability to format on the internet (which is painfully obvious) and suggest that anyone who wants to know can click the underlined numbers in the second column from the right beside the mafia thread title in the offtopic forum. That public service announcement should hopefully save me from future spectacles of incompetence. If you're counting based on quality, you can probably subtract (at least) these three from my post count...

[mrkajz44]

As a heads up, you can "go advanced" to reply and there is a preview post option, so you can make sure any formatting works before you actually post it.

Was hoping for more activity today, but it seems everyone wants to stay silent. Nothing has happened since my vote that makes me want to change it, so it is staying where it is. I think the rest of those who haven't voted should do so, or at least get more active to discuss why not vote has been made yet. Everyone knows there isn't a ton of information out there, but lots of the votes have had some good reasoning attached to them (for Day 1 at least), so I'd think there is enough out there to at least cast a vote.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by devo22

Not really sure about GGG and East Coast Flame about their "we need to get a vote tonight!" rush ... of course we shouldn't leave it till the last minute, but we still have 30 hours left.

I think we should all be voting for some people now, rather than tomorrow near the deadline. With all the silence in here, we need some votes to start generating conversation. It's too tough if it gets near the deadline and everybody then scrambles to change votes, or align with somebody. If we get some frontrunners now, then we are able to narrow down the options for the group. This gives us the best chance of voting somebody out. If we don't have enough for a lynch then this benefits the hosts.

If we get it down to two people with the most votes, hopefully some information comes out from both of them that will help us choose, or benefit us in the future as we hunt for scum. This also gives the person about to be lynched the opportunity to make one last post to help aid the search for scum. If we just wait until just before to start putting votes on, then these things don't happen.

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:

With 17 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (4): activeStick, SebC, dissentowner, Puxlut

Voted:
Party Elephant (3): GGG, GirlySports, mrkajz44
activeStick (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
GirlySports (2): Lego Man, devo22
dissentowner (1): Timbo
GGG (1): Party Elephant
squiggs96 (1): Hockeyguy15
SebC (1): East Coast Flame
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen

The deadline is Tuesday, May 26th at 10:00 PM.

Oling votes timbo votes Diss=not voted
Peanut votes ECF votes Seb=not voted
HG votes squiggs votes (non)active=not voted
I got halfway through this train of thought and then lost it.
Sorry, useless post.

[GGG]

Mr Kajz is moving up the radar for me.

First was his post where he questioned whether the spore carrier would know until night. This was different than what others were assuming.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Haha - leave it to Oiling to get the ball rolling early!

Is it possible the person who received the spore would not know about it until the night phase? That would throw a kink into the assumption that if the spore already turned someone, then that person would remain silent. Maybe I'm not reading the description of the spore correctly?

He explained this here:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

GGG and Oiling - I was just being a bit cautious with the game. There were assumptions being made and I was concerned a plan would be made just a few hours into the game on assumptions that didn't hold true. It turns out my speculation was right that if the spore was given out and the person was not turned, they actually don't know until the first night.

We really have to watch assumptions being made, especially early. The clan thing really threw the game off the rails in the last game due to a lot of assumptions (or guesses) being made about them.

But it seems like he had extra info.

Second, he defends Diss for over reacting on the two votes. This could be to gain cred if diss flips town or defending a buddy but why is he defending someone so early?

Third, he agrees with others suspicions about party but waits to hop on the wagon. Why doesn't he throw the vote out earlier.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Yeah, the last post by Diss is a bit odd. Oiling sort of nails it on the head, just seems like such a weird post to make with days to go until the deadline and only 2 votes have been placed. However, re-reading Diss' posts, I just don't get the feeling of scum and I think he just was venting a little frustration of being targeted early. I'm interested to see his future posts as alluded to above.

For me, thinking about some of the posts that came off as "different" early on, I have to say that Seb's strategy definitely caught my attention. It has some merit for sure, where there is simply too much noise with lots of posts. Sort of a direct shot against "the more information the better". It's a bit outside the box, but not a terrible idea.

However, what struck me as much more interesting was the way Party sort of latched onto that idea and ran with it. It seems like Seb thought out that strategy and wants to stick to it, but Party just grabbed a hold of the same idea and uses that to explain a very low post count, that has little to no content. Party also said they were new to Mafia, and I'm guessing drawing a Mafia card in their very first game would be very nerve racking and the fear of slipping up would be great, hence the low post count without much substance. Their instant vote sort of tears down that argument though, but maybe it was just heat of the moment?

So, I'm sticking to my idea of waiting until Monday to make a voting decision because posting is so infrequent on the weekends, but Party is at the top of my list for now. I'd like to hear a little more from them.

Also the initial reason for suspecting Party is a direct copy of mine so was he waiting to find another argument to make it look like he just wasn't boarding the wagon?

I think I like MrKajz as scum more than Party.

unvote
mrkajz44

Would still be willing to lynch Party but not really a fan right now of lynching because people are inactive but they need to step up.

[GGG]

Screwd up my vote

vote mrkajz44

[GirlySports]

That Mazrim fella only has 8 posts.

As for me I mentioned my thoughts about the spore early on. There hasn't been much discussion on that so its been quiet.

[dissentowner]

As I said before, at this point it is a crap shoot. I guess I just go with the gut as we are all putting in a vote.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

[activeStick]

Are we forcing people to vote here? I'm not convinced of anyone yet to be honest. Don't want to lynch anyone either just to vote someone out.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

As I said before, at this point it is a crap shoot. I guess I just go with the gut as we are all putting in a vote.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

No comment on my earlier question?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Are we forcing people to vote here? I'm not convinced of anyone yet to be honest. Don't want to lynch anyone either just to vote someone out.

Yeah it's pretty hard to get a read on people when no one is posting. Maybe votes will change that and get people talking.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Are we forcing people to vote here? I'm not convinced of anyone yet to be honest. Don't want to lynch anyone either just to vote someone out.

Yeah if we dont lynch anyone we're in trouble.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Yeah it's pretty hard to get a read on people when no one is posting. Maybe votes will change that and get people talking.

We just have to careful about looking for things that aren't there.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Yeah if we dont lynch anyone we're in trouble.

If we don't get the 6 votes, does nobody get killed?

[activeStick]

Sorry, meant to add would that be advantageous or not? I guess it depends. We wouldn't have anymore information after the night unless things happen during the evening I guess.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Are we forcing people to vote here? I'm not convinced of anyone yet to be honest. Don't want to lynch anyone either just to vote someone out.

This is a bad idea in regular mafia as you ensure that only townies die. I've been bouncing around in my head if this is true as well here. I think it is and that even randomly lynching is better than a no lynch.

We have a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent. And a 3/17 chance of lynching scum and a 1/34 chance of lynching a turned. So good outcomes are over 3 times as likely as terrible outcomes.

Lynching a townie means the number of turned to win decrease by .5. Lynching a turned increases the number by 1.

So I think the question asked is does a 3/17 chance of lynching scum worth a 1/17 chance of lynching our agent and a .5 person reduction in the number of turned required.

I'm also not sure we gain anything by waiting. The only info we might gain by doing nothing is who the spore was passed to and that's only a 50% chance. And the person to act on that info is the agent not the town.

So I would say a no lynch plays into scum hands.