[CP Story] Calgarypuck Schedule Analyzer (Updated) - Page 3 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Bandwagon In Flames · 03-07-2015, 06:59 PM

Appreciate the chart, I also take a gander whenever it's updated, but this isn't the kind of topic that garners a lot of discussion. It's very relevant though especially with how tight the western race is this year. Helps to show that the playoffs are not a pipe dream.

PeteMoss · 03-07-2015, 07:02 PM

I like it as well.

Street Pharmacist · 03-07-2015, 07:04 PM

Love it. Thanks bingo!

Yrebmi · 03-07-2015, 07:16 PM

In an attempt to stir up some conversation, anyone care to speculate how quality of competition may have changed due to the trade deadline and recent injuries to several key teams?

Thanks for the chart and updates BINGO

To Be Quite Honest · 03-07-2015, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Most difficult to easiest kind of thing?

This topic hasn't garnered a lot of discussion which I guess either means nobody cares, or they read it and move on

If you're looking for feedback I'll share.

These are fine and informative, but I prefer the Excel sheet as a discussion tool as we can all participate with it.

Bingo · 03-07-2015, 07:52 PM

I'll keep on updating then!

No worries guys, just wanted to make sure someone was looking at them.

AC · 03-07-2015, 07:56 PM

Definitely appreciate the effort, very interesting to analyze.

The downside is at this point of the year playing non-playoff teams can be dangerous as well.

It might be interesting to see how each team in the race has already done against the teams they'll play the rest of the way.

Bingo · 03-09-2015, 09:46 AM

Post 7 game road trip update.

Flames now have the 25th toughest schedule with the 20th toughest road sked (7 games) and 27th toughest home sked (9 games)

Nine wins and they are essentially in

Minnesota has the toughest schedule, Winnipeg second.

Itse · 03-09-2015, 10:16 AM

I was eyeballing the same thing, what's left of the schedule clearly works in our favour.

That said, I have a gut feeling that at this time of the year teams are starting to be very unpredictable. Teams that are out of the playoff race regurarly start overperforming, and teams that are already mentally in the playoffs can have surprise off nights.

(Would be interesting if somebody put some research into whether that's true.)

DJones · 03-09-2015, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itse

I was eyeballing the same thing, what's left of the schedule clearly works in our favour.

That said, I have a gut feeling that at this time of the year teams are starting to be very unpredictable. Teams that are out of the playoff race regurarly start overperforming, and teams that are already mentally in the playoffs can have surprise off nights.

(Would be interesting if somebody put some research into whether that's true.)

I'm sure there is but good luck trying to quantify that. All you can do is go by how they have been doing in the past.

Itse · 03-09-2015, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJones

I'm sure there is but good luck trying to quantify that. All you can do is go by how they have been doing in the past.

It would take some work, but surprises are totally a quantifiable thing, even though it's never going to be perfect.

Just looking at things like "how often does a team lower in the standings beat a team higher in the standings at different times of the year" could give you something.

iheartmonahan · 03-09-2015, 12:10 PM

I remember a few years ago (back as a lurker) someone making an excel sheet where one could run through scenarios of W, L, SO/OT for the remaining schedule of all the teams in the hunt. I'm pretty sure I spent many hours trying to figure out what it would take for the flames to make the playoffs inputting different records for teams. Maybe I'm alone in remembering that as being fun... Anyone ambitious enough to dig that up again?

AC · 03-09-2015, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartmonahan

I remember a few years ago (back as a lurker) someone making an excel sheet where one could run through scenarios of W, L, SO/OT for the remaining schedule of all the teams in the hunt. I'm pretty sure I spent many hours trying to figure out what it would take for the flames to make the playoffs inputting different records for teams. Maybe I'm alone in remembering that as being fun... Anyone ambitious enough to dig that up again?

Murph made one:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=144988

GreenLantern · 03-09-2015, 12:13 PM

Looks good, thanks for updating these.

Bingo · 03-12-2015, 09:00 AM

March 12th update.

With the Ducks game behind them (was their third toughest), they move to the 26th toughest schedule in the league.

Jets and Wild are going to have to prove they deserve it with brutal schedule to finish up. LA in the middle.

At the bottom, the Coyotes have the toughest schedule of the three teams at 17th, with Edmonton 24th and Buffalo 27th. Should mean Arizona falls below the Oilers.

mrkajz44 · 03-12-2015, 09:08 AM

Sportsclubstats have Minnesota and Calgary at virtually the same odds of making the playoffs now. Since Minnesota is 2 points ahead of the Flames (same number of games played), it sounds like the tough schedule should only cost Minnesota an average of 2 points over the last 15 games.

Wondering if the strength of schedule card is played too much, considering that analysis. Or I guess the flip side is that sportsclubstats is not factoring in schedule enough (i.e., the weighting is not enough when matching up teams).

Personally, I think strength of schedule is extremely important though. Just interesting to see the contradicting evidence.

DJones · 03-12-2015, 09:08 AM

Was looking yesterday and the Flames ad Canucks have near identical schedules. Except we have St Louis and Dallas twice and they have Arizona twice and still one game left with Chicago.

Da_Chief · 03-12-2015, 09:08 AM

Exciting times. Let's go Flames!

Blixa · 03-12-2015, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Sportsclubstats have Minnesota and Calgary at virtually the same odds of making the playoffs now. Since Minnesota is 2 points ahead of the Flames (same number of games played), it sounds like the tough schedule should only cost Minnesota an average of 2 points over the last 15 games.

Wondering if the strength of schedule card is played too much, considering that analysis. Or I guess the flip side is that sportsclubstats is not factoring in schedule enough (i.e., the weighting is not enough when matching up teams).

Personally, I think strength of schedule is extremely important though. Just interesting to see the contradicting evidence.

Wild has four backtoback games left, all those games other team is rested, not playing night before. Flames has two b2b games, colorado game in saturday the avs have day off in friday. Wild can´t play Dunbnyk rest off the season, he has 26 starts without break.

bomber317 · 03-12-2015, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Wondering if the strength of schedule card is played too much, considering that analysis. Or I guess the flip side is that sportsclubstats is not factoring in schedule enough (i.e., the weighting is not enough when matching up teams).

Personally, I think strength of schedule is extremely important though. Just interesting to see the contradicting evidence.

With the way things have been playing out lately, I'm not sure strength of schedule matters as much as we think we do. ex: MTL losing to the cali teams, MIN losing to Edm and COL, but beats every other team. CGY beating ANA, BOS, DET, but losing to OTT?

The games between the playoff chasers are more important in terms of a max available points of 3 for the 2 teams. Hopefully those turn out to be 2 points games.