Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[polak]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So Calgary goes 0-2-1 and suddenly there is no way we can make the playoffs if we lose the next game? The overreactions are getting worse and worse.

94 points is a maybe, with 96 as being a virtual lock. That's what we need at the end of the season, winning tonight or not.

Pretty much. Have you seen how everyone else is playing?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I don't disagree with the general trends here, but two weeks seems like an awfully short window for significant changes like Minnesota gaining 30%.

Agreed. To be fair, don't think anyone really saw the Wild going 8-1-2 during those games, though, either. LA has had similar 20+% gains in the past two weeks. When you win 8 straight, major gains will happen.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So Calgary goes 0-2-1 and suddenly there is no way we can make the playoffs if we lose the next game? The overreactions are getting worse and worse.

94 points is a maybe, with 96 as being a virtual lock. That's what we need at the end of the season, winning tonight or not.

If they go 0-3-1 their next game then becomes win or 0-4-1. It's snowballing so yes they need to win tonight or it's very bleak. Every loss now makes their margin for error significantly smaller. Any time you have to hope for a 7-2-1 run in your last 10 games (likely if they add a few more losses to the streak) you are likely going to miss the playoffs. I'm not saying 100% they are done but realistically they would be only statistically still in the race.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Agreed. To be fair, don't think anyone really saw the Wild going 8-1-2 during those games, though, either. LA has had similar 20+% gains in the past two weeks. When you win 8 straight, major gains will happen.

Not so surprised that Minnesota gained – they had a great couple of weeks. Also not so surprised that Calgary dropped a bit – they had a middling couple of weeks. But they're still within a couple of games of each other so I wouldn't have expected such a huge percentage difference between them

Edit: putting it another way, if you're looking at this as a predictive tool, I wouldn't expect predictions to be so sensitive to hot streaks since streaks are part of the game

[hwy19man]

After Tuesday's games:

Vancouver (35-22-3) 32 ROW, 73 pts--second in Pacific Division
1. Winnipeg (31-20-11) 25 ROW, 73 pts
Los Angeles (29-18-12) 28 ROW, 70 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. Minnesota (31-22-7) 29 ROW, 69 pts
3. Calgary (32-24-4) 29 ROW, 68 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
4. San Jose (30-23-8) 28 ROW, 68 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (27-25-9) 25 ROW, 63 pts
6. Colorado (26-24-11) 18 ROW, 63 pts

Jets, Canucks, and Kings won in regulation
Stars, Wild, Flames, Stars, and Avalanche lost in regulation

There was no Monday update because the teams from this list were not playing that night.

[troutman]

One way to look at it - CGY can only lose about 8 or 9 more games at most. A loss tonight is not fatal, but there only 9 lives left.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by troutman

One way to look at it - CGY can only lose about 8 or 9 more games at most. A loss tonight is not fatal, but there only 9 lives left.

I can't tell if you are being a Negative Nancy, or just a realist.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by troutman

One way to look at it - CGY can only lose about 8 or 9 more games at most. A loss tonight is not fatal, but there only 9 lives left.

60 games gone, 22 left.

13 - 9 record in that case.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by bomber317

60 games gone, 22 left.

13 - 9 record in that case.

14-8 would put you in for sure

13-9 would be a pretty good chance

below that it gets really sketchy...not a must win tonight but its pretty big

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I can't tell if you are being a Negative Nancy, or just a realist.

Ok, the positive spin is better. 14 more wins, and we are in!

[Gaudfather]

After that 2-1 loss at home last night I have a feeling that Minnesota might be coming back down to earth.

[Hackey]

A loss to the Oilers has to sting really bad in the middle of a playoff race.

[Roof-Daddy]

27/41 points to reach 97 points for +98% chance of playoffs.

That's .658 hockey though.....no easy task.

[troutman]

Mission 14 accomplished.

13

[troutman]

94-95 points should do it. CGY has the tie breaker on a lot of teams?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by troutman

Mission 14 accomplished.

13

I like your style. No fancy schmancy charts or methodologies. 13 wins and we're in!

Added bonus of simplicity: no advanced stats posts

[blender]

Originally Posted by troutman

94-95 points should do it. CGY has the tie breaker on a lot of teams?

Agree. Could even be less IMO, but probably not much. Calgary is on a 94-point pace right now, which has them in the playoffs (just).

Looking at other team's schedules, I think the Vancouver-San Jose home and home coming up might go a ways towards separating or tightening up the Pacific division.

I like the 13-win countdown though; let's have a bit of security!

[Street Pharmacist]

Games above .500:


Nashville +28
Anaheim +21
St Louis +20
Chicago +16
Vancouver +13
Winnipeg +11
LA +11
Calgary +9
---------------------
Minnesota +9
San Jose +7
Dallas +2
Colorado +2
Phoenix - 14
Edmonton -16


Colorado and Dallas are done. Finishing at 11 games over .500 is almost impossible.

If the goal is 95 points or 13 games over .500, then San Jose would need to finish their last 21 games at 6 over (13-7-1 or so). That's too tall an order I think. I'm actually comfortable calling them out of the playoffs. They still have a chance, but with their play of late, and the competition, I don't see it happening.

Vancouver needs only to play at .500 and they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Their average opponent points% for the rest of their games is only around .500 and they get a few more teams on the second night of back to backs. They do hold our fate a little as they play the Kings 3 times, and Jets and sharks twice each. And don't look now, but their goal differential is almost tied with ours. I'm comfortable giving them a spot.

That really leaves 4 teams (LA, Minnesota, Winnipeg and Calgary) for 3 spots.

Minnesota has almost nothing but difficult opponents for the rest of the year. As Bingo showed, they have the hardest schedule in the league by opponents points%. They play Nashville 3 more times in Nashville. They play St Louis 3 more times and two of those are in St Louis. They also play Anaheim, Washington (2x), NYR, NYI, CHI. Those are tough outs. I don't see Dubnyk stealing them the show.

LA's schedule is reasonable, with average difficulty of opponents. What should help the flames though is their home/road split. LA has 9 home games remaining, and 14... yes that's right 14 road games remaining. They are 20-6-6 at home and 9-12-6 on the road. You may point to their 8 game win streak which included 4 road wins. I would point out that those 4 wins are against TB (fair enough), Colorado, Columbus and SJ (stadium game = road?). Hardly that impressive. Their run is still worrisome and they only need to finish 2 games above the .500 mark to hit 95 points.

Winnipeg has St Louis 4 more times, Nashville and quite a few other difficult teams, with few "easy ones". Their schedule is the second most difficult in the NHL by opponents points%. Their home/road split is irrelevant due to the fact they have the same record home or away. They only need to be a couple games over .500 to hit the magic number.

Calgary has no real Achilles coming. Their home/road split is fairly even and their difficulty is about average. Their last two games are at home to LA on April 9th and in Winnipeg on the 11th. Those could be incredibly interesting.

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games:

Vancouver (35-22-3) 32 ROW, 73 pts--second in Pacific Division
1. Winnipeg (31-20-11) 25 ROW, 73 pts
Los Angeles (29-18-12) 28 ROW, 70 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. Calgary (33-24-4) 30 ROW, 70 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
3. Minnesota (31-22-7) 29 ROW, 69 pts
4. San Jose (30-23-8) 28 ROW, 68 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (27-25-9) 25 ROW, 63 pts
6. Colorado (26-24-11) 19 ROW, 63 pts

Flames won in regulation

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Colorado and Dallas are done. Finishing at 11 games over .500 is almost impossible.

If the goal is 95 points or 13 games over .500, then San Jose would need to finish their last 21 games at 6 over (13-7-1 or so). That's too tall an order I think. I'm actually comfortable calling them out of the playoffs. They still have a chance, but with their play of late, and the competition, I don't see it happening.

Vancouver needs only to play at .500 and they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Their average opponent points% for the rest of their games is only around .500 and they get a few more teams on the second night of back to backs. They do hold our fate a little as they play the Kings 3 times, and Jets and sharks twice each. And don't look now, but their goal differential is almost tied with ours. I'm comfortable giving them a spot.

I'm with you on Dallas and Colorado but I think it's still probably too early to count Vancouver absolutely in or San Jose absolutely out, for basically inverse reasons: Vancouver's lack of on-ice talent (half their roster is hurt), and San Jose's wealth of on-ice talent.

13-7-1 shouldn't be an unachievable feat for the Sharks by any means if they'd just get their s*** together and their power play scoring again. They haven't done it so far, but it's sort of like looking at the Kings prior to this 8 game winning streak they're on, but to a lesser degree - the Sharks aren't as good as the Kings, but they don't need to win 8 games in a row, either. Win 3 games in a row, win five of seven, and you're right back in good shape.

Vancouver, meanwhile... for me, their schedule easiness is completely offset by injuries. And I'm not as convinced by the schedule strength - yes, in terms of opp win%, but then there's this methodology.



(http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1842181)

It's not even so much the goaltending, as I don't see Lack as that big a downgrade from Miller over a span of 20 games, provided he doesn't start them all in a row. It's more the defense. Playing a bunch of AHLers and Luca Sbisa every night has to catch up to you sometime. They basically have no top four defensemen - Hamhuis is there but reportedly has a groin injury that will need offseason surgery. I'd still bet they make it but I'm not giving them a spot.

I am however completely willing to give LA a spot. This is a team that tells the regular season to go **** itself on a regular basis. They're getting in and they're probably just going to win the whole thing again. What a bunch of jerks.