60 Years of Traffic Planning

[darklord700]

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-...daily-commutes

"Implementing the entire network will take up to 60 years, but Mulligan said it’s time to start planning now."

I am no enginneers but in 60 years we'll have self driving cars if not flying cars.

[Dan02]

Hopefully in 10

[GoinAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I am no enginneers but in 60 years we'll have self driving cars if not flying cars.

Self driving cars should be along much sooner than that. I sure hope so anyways, got some big plans for them!

[Mazrim]

Hover cars were supposed to be a thing already, if I recall...

Smart planning doesn't assume the current mode would be completely obsolete, as new technology would still want to use existing infrastructure rather than front load a huge cost to implement.

HOV lanes will be a hard sell though...the implementations elsewhere I've seen have been around for a while now and are still not well regarded or even enforced. There's an initial blitz of police enforcement then nothing. I'll be interested to see how they handle it here.

[polak]

We had this argument in another thread before. Human driven cars will most likely still be around then. You have to plan for it.

There will never be flying cars.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by polak

We had this argument in another thread before. Human driven cars will most likely still be around then. You have to plan for it.

There will never be flying cars.

Ohh they will definitely be around for a long time yet, but I could see the beginning of phasing them out happening not too far off in the future. To gauge perspective on how fast technology is changing, look at the iPhone, it's not even 8 years old yet.

Personally I can't wait to have a self driving car to whisk me around.

[polak]

The thing is, an iPhone can't kill anybody.

There will be a lot more roadblocks before self-driving cars are widespread. Think about liability for accidents. Will it be up to the manufacturer to cover accident costs? The owner of the car, who technically didn't do anything wrong? Some sort of pool we all pay into? How much is this pool going to cost for the first adapters?

Then you can guarantee that when the inevitable moment comes and something malfunctions and people die, you will have a complete re-evaluation of the system.

I used to doubt the technology too, but since the last debate on here, I was convinced otherwise and now believe the technology will be there sooner rather than later, but I think the legislation and confidence will be lacking for quite some time.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by polak

The thing is, an iPhone can't kill anybody.

There will be a lot more roadblocks before self-driving cars are widespread. Think about liability for accidents. Will it be up to the manufacturer to cover accident costs? The owner of the car, who technically didn't do anything wrong? Some sort of pool we all pay into? How much is this pool going to cost for the first adapters?

Then you can guarantee that when the inevitable moment comes and something malfunctions and people die, you will have a complete re-evaluation of the system.

I used to doubt the technology too, but since the last debate on here, I was convinced otherwise and now believe the technology will be there sooner rather than later, but I think the legislation and confidence will be lacking for quite some time.

1.2 million+ people are currently dying on the roads every year. 90+% are driver error and 30% of those die in accidents related to drunk driving. Right there you've just saved 360,000 lives per year by getting drunk drivers off the road. But for some reason you're caught up in the 1 person who might die because of a computer error, talk about being unable to see the forest through the trees.

Once the technology matures more automated vehicles are going to reduce accident rates by orders of magnitudes, nearly eliminate fatalities and increase the efficiency of our road systems.

Anyways, both Google and Mercendes expect to be commercially producing autonomous capable vehicles by 2020 and there may be some on the road as soon as 2017.

Further the google cars autonomously driven over 1.1 million kms and the only accident thus far while operating under autonomous conditions was being read ended by a human driver while stopped at a light. I would wager there are quite a few drivers on this forum who cannot boast such a record.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by polak

The thing is, an iPhone can't kill anybody.

There will be a lot more roadblocks before self-driving cars are widespread. Think about liability for accidents. Will it be up to the manufacturer to cover accident costs? The owner of the car, who technically didn't do anything wrong? Some sort of pool we all pay into? How much is this pool going to cost for the first adapters?

Then you can guarantee that when the inevitable moment comes and something malfunctions and people die, you will have a complete re-evaluation of the system.

I used to doubt the technology too, but since the last debate on here, I was convinced otherwise and now believe the technology will be there sooner rather than later, but I think the legislation and confidence will be lacking for quite some time.

We already have that. It's called auto insurance, and I'd guess that it would be cheaper for anyone with a self-driving car than it is now.

[SebC]

If we still allow human-operated cars on public roads in 60 years, then something has gone horribly wrong.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by SebC

If we still allow human-operated cars on public roads in 60 years, then something has gone horribly wrong.

Can we at least have human-powered motorcycles?

[You Need a Thneed]

In 60 years, the main transporation options might be things that no one has even thought of yet.

[Northendzone]

i don't care as i will likely be dead in 60 yrs

[darklord700]

My origin intend of starting this thread is on the 60 year part. Why does it take 60 years to plan and build HOV lanes in Calgary? I'm sure more could be been done in less time . And that the majority of people living now won't survive another 60 year is the comical part.

[saskflames69]

Teleportation will be the only way to go in 60 years.

[polak]

Originally Posted by gargamel

We already have that. It's called auto insurance, and I'd guess that it would be cheaper for anyone with a self-driving car than it is now.

Why do I have to pay insurance for my self driving cars mistakes? Shouldn't it be the manufacturer? So something happens, some malfunction and all of the sudden your car causes millions in damages. Now YOU are expected to pay more for insurance because something happened that is completely out of your control?

Insurance protects the driver from liability due to their own error. Self-Driving cars don't have a driver. Why should the passanger have to pay? That's dumb.

Are the manufacturers going to cover insurance premiums for millions of cars?

That's where I see the roadblocks. All the legislation that has to change. Like I said, I no longer doubt the tech. I'm just curious how it's going to all work.

If it takes all the scared drivers who don't have a clue what they're doing off of the roads then I'm all for it. This is going to make the roads even better for people like me who will hold on to my human-driven cars as long as they let me.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by polak

Why do I have to pay insurance for my self driving cars mistakes? Shouldn't it be the manufacturer? So something happens, some malfunction and all of the sudden your car causes millions in damages. Now YOU are expected to pay more for insurance because something happened that is completely out of your control?

Insurance protects the driver from liability due to their own error. Self-Driving cars don't have a driver. Why should the passanger have to pay? That's dumb.

Are the manufacturers going to cover insurance premiums for millions of cars?

That's where I see the roadblocks. All the legislation that has to change. Like I said, I no longer doubt the tech. I'm just curious how it's going to all work.

If it takes all the scared drivers who don't have a clue what they're doing off of the roads then I'm all for it. This is going to make the roads even better for people like me who will hold on to my human-driven cars as long as they let me.

Polak all your points are out weighted by ther prospect of safer road handies.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by saskflames69

Teleportation will be the only way to go in 60 years.

There's no chance we have the ability to teleport anything of substance in 60 years.


As for the insurance, I see it working something like this - Two "standard" cars in an accident, fault gets determined as it is now. If a standard car colides with an autonomous car, standard car is at fault. If an autonomous car collides with an automonous car, fault is split 50/50 - but this should be rare enough that iit should be negligible.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by polak

Why do I have to pay insurance for my self driving cars mistakes? Shouldn't it be the manufacturer? So something happens, some malfunction and all of the sudden your car causes millions in damages. Now YOU are expected to pay more for insurance because something happened that is completely out of your control?

Insurance protects the driver from liability due to their own error. Self-Driving cars don't have a driver. Why should the passanger have to pay? That's dumb.

Are the manufacturers going to cover insurance premiums for millions of cars?

That's where I see the roadblocks. All the legislation that has to change. Like I said, I no longer doubt the tech. I'm just curious how it's going to all work.

If it takes all the scared drivers who don't have a clue what they're doing off of the roads then I'm all for it. This is going to make the roads even better for people like me who will hold on to my human-driven cars as long as they let me.

You're overthinking how the insurance is going to change things. It's not going to change much at all. The difference is you will solely be paying based on the vehicle you are driving; it's value, safety record of the car, how much it is used and where you live.

The reason you are charged more for insurance because of a accident, your age, any tickets you may have, is because the insurance companies have determined those are risk factors for future claims, not to recoup the money from past accidents. With all those factors eliminated there would be no reason to raise your rate in event of a accident as your risk factor is still the same as everyone else driving the same car. so for example everyone driving a 2020 Ford Focus will pay $20 per month regardless of if your personal car had been involved in a accident the week before or not.

As for who is going to pay for the insurance, sure you could have all manufacturers pay for the insurance, that just means you're going to be paying more for your car up front. You're going to end up paying for it one way or the other.

The legislation will probably change in regards to insurance but it doesn't even have to, within the current legislation the insurance companies will come up with products to cover automated vehicles.

[Fire]

Virtual Reality will be huge in 60 years, everyone will just be staying home anyway.