[CP Story] The Turkey Day Bubble

[Regular_John]

I'm starting to believe. I won't be disappointed or surprised if they don't make it, but I'm starting to think they pull it off this year.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

The wheels were already flying off of the 2001 team. They started 13-2-2-2 and by U.S. Thanksgiving they were two games into what would become a seven-game winless skid and a stretch of one win in 11 games.

[kermitology]

I'll remain cautiously optimistic while Giordano remains healthy. The team seems to have good depth at forward, or at least enough depth to not have everything go off the rails with the injuries up front, but that back end drops off like the Cliffs of Moher after the top 4.

I'd strongly suggest looking to make a move to swap a top 6/9 player for more depth on defence, even if it has the appearances of the team moving the schedule ahead. They just need more 4-6 D-men. So that the reach isn't as large should one of the top 4 go down for 4+ games in a row.

Look at how much scoring is coming from the D. That's likely covering up a lot of the warts in the forward ranks.

[Red Menace]

While I certainly don't think we have a 95% chance to make it, I do think we have a greater than 50% chance at this point. (Which is shocking to me)
As others mentioned the key for me is the health of Giordano and Brodie. We have shown we can weather injuries to our deep Fwd core....but losing one of these 2 for an extended period of time would be devastating.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still think they miss the playoffs but I will be happy to be wrong on this one.

This is exactly who I was 4 hours ago

[BigNumbers]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Just confirming what I recognized by early November. Thanks Bingo.

[troutman]

Have been in almost every game this year. Biggest losses were by 3 goals three times (TB scored EN).

[Where ru Chris O'Sullivan]

I think they get in as long as Brodie nor Gio get injured.

But, on a young team anything is possible.

[Flash Walken]

This article feeds my anxiety.

If they are close I still hope they are dealing pending free agents and players with significant trade value as the deadline approaches.

Just because the team is close doesn't mean they are ready. I really, really hope things in the short term aren't done that jeopardize the long term goal.

I'd love to watch some playoff hockey this year, but I hope calgary ends up with a couple of 2nd and 3rd rounders (and an extra 1st...).

Marriage of the two would be spectacular.

[Bingo]

Any time we worry about a higher draft pick, or an inability to deal ufa's for additional draft picks we have to remember the advanced development the Flames are gaining from playing meaningful hockey in the here and now and not just on the farm or in the NHL in three years.

Just means so much

Add in the fact that the Flames suddenly have a superstar defenseman now, and why waste his window?

I'm good with not dealing Glencross if need be ...

I'm not good with dealing 1sts and 2nds for UFAs.

[Manhattanboy]

Thank you so much Bingo. Great analysis.

As we wind down November what this means most for me is that every Flames game now means so much, that we can all get seriously invested in, just like the playoffs per se.

And its much more fun watching the OTT scoreboard and cheering against the likes of SJ, WPG, MINN etc.

[Dion]

A few months ago I would have laughed at anyone who said we would make the playoffs but now I have become a believer. Hartley and his coaching staff have done a great job of instilling a level of confidence to where the players actually believe they can beat any team in the league.

My biggest fear is that we are a bit thin on defence and an injury to Gio or Brodie could derail any playoff asperations.

Over all this team is taking us on one hell of a ride and I look forward to this team fighting to the end for a playoff spot.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Just confirming what I recognized by early November. Thanks Bingo.

Should have written an article.

[GGG]

I'm not sure there is much value to the 75% of teams make it.

At the start of the season most people would have had

LA
Anaheim
Chicago
St Louis
San Jose

And some combination of Vancouver, Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota for the last 3 teams. A list containing these teams would likely be 75% accurate in predicting who will make the playoffs. What we have now that we didn't before is a much better idea of who the surprise teams are that will knock out the early season predictions. We also have a list of who won't make the playoffs.

I just think this whole 75% of playoff teams thing has no predictive value as at the start of the season I can write a list of playoff teams with the same accuracy.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'm not sure there is much value to the 75% of teams make it.

At the start of the season most people would have had

LA
Anaheim
Chicago
St Louis
San Jose

And some combination of Vancouver, Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota for the last 3 teams. A list containing these teams would likely be 75% accurate in predicting who will make the playoffs. What we have now that we didn't before is a much better idea of who the surprise teams are that will knock out the early season predictions. We also have a list of who won't make the playoffs.

I just think this whole 75% of playoff teams thing has no predictive value as at the start of the season I can write a list of playoff teams with the same accuracy.

Sure with the west and the strong teams, but look at the east

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Sure with the west and the strong teams, but look at the east

If I had to pick 8 at the start it would have been

Mon
Bos
Tampa
Pitt
Rangers

As locks. Add any 3 teams to that list and you probably hit 75% as well

[Enoch Root]

We have to beat 6 teams. I look at games above 500. Flames are +6 and the Oilers are -8 so that's a 14 game lead

Edmonton: +14
Colorado: +8
Arizona: +8
Dallas: +6
San Jose: +6 (that last game was HUGE)
Winnipeg: +3 (they don't scare me)

If we still have a 6 game lead on Dallas and SJ at New Years, we're in great shape.

[Displaced Flames fan]

I am in. Time to hold the team to a higher standard and scrutinize losses, but also time to change my reactions to wins from "Can you believe this?" to fist pumps and fearsome gazes of pure intensity!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

I am in. Time to hold the team to a higher standard and scrutinize losses, but also time to change my reactions to wins from "Can you believe this?" to fist pumps and fearsome gazes of pure intensity!

Yeah it's going to be odd to be bitter about a loss, haven't really had that feeling in three years.

The loss in Anaheim left me in a good mood because they pushed back so hard, but now that I'm firmly on the "this team is going to make the playoffs" angle losses are going to annoy the hell out of me.

[Enoch Root]

yup - when they have a slump it's going to suck

and to make it worse, the regression crowd will be in with the "I told you so's"