New Draft Lottery odds announced

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by #-3

The odds do seem to take some odd jumps. But it looks like the league has gone out of their way to make a system that could be implemented with 200 lotto balls. Maybe they are going to a live, on-air draw like we have all asked for.

I know the old system was just done with a random scenario generator on a computer, because they would have needed like 10,000 balls to make it work.

.

Nope only 14 balls. 4 balls taken from those 14 corresponded to 1 of 1001 combinations assigned to teams based on the probabilities.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don't like that idea as it seems too arbitrary. How do you decide how many times is enough? With the unpredictability of draft quality from year-to year, I think there should still be an element of chance for draft position.

But that's not what the draft is about. Just because one team refused to get better and kept taking 1st overalls doesn't mean that legitimately bad teams should get screwed. This changed combined with the 2016 draft moves it further away from the intent of a draft in the first place.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Nope only 14 balls. 4 balls taken from those 14 corresponded to 1 of 1001 combinations assigned to teams based on the probabilities.

Sounds about right... If I heard correctly isn't it something like each team get's an assigned number range the balls are then drawn out of the hopper so if the balls came out 1 2 1 7 whichever team had number 1217 in it's range was the winner?

[OzSome]

Trust me Kevin Lowe and his crooners will still find a way to contend for the first pick overall every year.

[Badgers Nose]

Flames will have a 7.5-8.5% chance of getting 1st next year.

They will still get someone good in a deep draft.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Not insignificant odds that the worst place team only drafts 4th. It will happen quite regularly.

(without actually doing the math)

Originally Posted by #-3

if 17th won 1st, and 18th won 2nd.

30th would have just over a 51% chance at 3rd. There is only like a 0.02% chance of that happening.

Any other scenario would give them better odds of at least a top 3 pick.

Let's do the math:

In the first lottery, the worst overall team has a 20% chance of being picked.

The best case scenario for the worst overall team (if they don't get picked in the first lottery), is that the second place team gets picked. This would leave the worst overall team with a 20/86.5 (23.1%) chance of being picked in the second lottery.

If they don't get picked in the second lottery, the best case scenario for them is for the third last team to be picked in the second lottery, which combined with the first lottery results, leaves the worst overall team with a 20/75 (26.7%) chance of being picked in the third lottery.

When we do all the calculations, that means that the worst overall team will pick no better than 4th (i.e. not win a lottery spot) AT LEAST 45.1% or the time.

I won't go into all of the possible compbinations, but it's safe to say that the worst overall team will only get a top three pick about 50-55% of the time.

[heep223]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/new-lottery-rules-come-at-worst-time-for-flames

[CSharp]

Format of 2015 Draft lottery pretty much remains the same except the first 4 teams with the lowest season points total will have their odds diminished a bit. Being the worst team is is still the best case scenario since there's a 6.5% gap difference to the second worst team and a one-in-five ball chance to get the top overall pick. The worse you can do as a last place finisher in 2015 is selecting second overall. There's no better way to build a team when you still have the opportunity to take advantage of any remaining chances to draft at a better position. So, basically, if the Flames can tank to the bottom this year, I'd be ecstatic widdat! I can care less about 2016 draft when the full effect of the phased in period is complete.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by heep223

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/new-lottery-rules-come-at-worst-time-for-flames

I don't expect the Flames to be bottom three, so I think that it's actually a good time for the changes to come for the Flames. The chances of getting top three picks has significantly increased.

[Finger Cookin]

nm

[Deegee]

Originally Posted by heep223

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/new-lottery-rules-come-at-worst-time-for-flames

Isn't he an Oilers homer?

Surprised the article isn't whining about the chances being reduced for Edmonton's shot at 1st OA.

Would actually prefer to see some lottery ball format for all teams out of the playoffs, not just the bottom 3.

[Pellanor]

Chance of each placement to get top 3 picks.

    1st     2nd     3rd     Top 3
1   20.00%  17.49%  15.02%  52.51%
2   13.50%  13.07%  12.48%  39.05%
3   11.50%  11.43%  11.26%  34.19%
4   9.50%    9.68%   9.82%  29.00%
5   8.50%    8.77%   9.01%  26.28%
6   7.50%    7.82%   8.15%  23.47%
7   6.50%    6.86%   7.23%  20.59%
8   6.00%    6.36%   6.76%  19.12%
9   5.00%    5.36%   5.76%  16.12%
10  3.50%    3.81%   4.17%  11.47%
11  3.00%    3.28%   3.61%  9.89%
12  2.50%    2.75%   3.04%  8.28%
13  2.00%    2.21%   2.45%  6.66%
14  1.00%    1.11%   1.25%  3.37%

[Gord Wappel]

Perfect for Flames.
Coming season they may need to take advantage of a near bottom experience
End of 2016, closer to a playoff spot, they still have a shot at a top three pick.
Except things never occur as I predict.

[MissTeeks]

Originally Posted by heep223

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/new-lottery-rules-come-at-worst-time-for-flames

That article doesn't even mention Burke and that's the picture they go with?

[Hackey]

I'm just glad the old system will be used for next years draft.

[Singularity]

Watch as the Oilers pull another 1st overall out of their butt


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I'm just glad the old system will be used for next years draft.

Same system, different odds.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I know this system isn't the best for us but i hope we aren't basement dwellers in 2016.

[Vinny01]

At the end of the day the ultimate tank gets you 1st or 2nd and either McDavid or Eichel in the upcoming draft.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Pellanor

Chance of each placement to get top 3 picks.

    1st     2nd     3rd     Top 3
1   20.00%  17.49%  15.02%  52.51%
2   13.50%  13.07%  12.48%  39.05%
3   11.50%  11.43%  11.26%  34.19%
4   9.50%    9.68%   9.82%  29.00%
5   8.50%    8.77%   9.01%  26.28%
6   7.50%    7.82%   8.15%  23.47%
7   6.50%    6.86%   7.23%  20.59%
8   6.00%    6.36%   6.76%  19.12%
9   5.00%    5.36%   5.76%  16.12%
10  3.50%    3.81%   4.17%  11.47%
11  3.00%    3.28%   3.61%  9.89%
12  2.50%    2.75%   3.04%  8.28%
13  2.00%    2.21%   2.45%  6.66%
14  1.00%    1.11%   1.25%  3.37%

I don't believe this is correct. For one thing, the odds for the 2nd and 3rd rounds are dependent on who wins the prior rounds. So you end up with ranges of odds.

Based on my quick run through of it, the last place team would have the following odds:

1st pick: 20%
2nd pick: 23.1% (best case, if 29th place team won round 1) to 20.2% (if 17th won)
3rd pick: 26.7% - 20.6%

Edit: not entirely right either... the 2nd and 3rd rounds have to be factored down to reflect the possibility of having won the prior round(s)

Another edit: oh, I see that you took weighted averages... my apologies, your numbers appear good