If they have a chance should the Flames Draft Ekblad

[ricardodw]

This is an interesting draft for the Flames.

The propaganda from Edmonton wanting Draisaitl and Florida looking for offers for the #1 seems to me to open up the possibility that Ekblad may be available when the Flames pick at #4.

Should they take Ekblad if they have a chance?

They have the least expectation and longest time frame for drafting a player that doesn't have an immediate impact out of the bottom 4 teams.

The Flames will have Gaudreau as a rookie next season if not Granlund and/or Baertschi and/or Max Reinhart and/or Poirier and or McKnight. The roster will not be as wide open for the either of the Sams or Draisaitl to step in like Monahan.

I would like the Flames to draft Ekbad with the expectation that he goes back to Juniors for 2014-15 and makes the Flames as 4/5 in 2015-16 and is 1/2 in 2015-16.

There is a better chance that any one of the forwards will make an impact sooner but right now the Flames have numerous prospects that have the potential of being top 6 players in 2015-16 and basically Brodie (and Gio) in line to be top 2 Or even strong top 4 in 2015-16…. Smid and/or Wideman might fill in a top 4 spot on a good playoff team but the team would have a much more realistic chance with them as 4/5.

It is really hard to get that commodity without drafting in the top 4. Even with a top 10 pick the odds fall off rather dramatically.

This year or possibly next is the Flames chance to fill this need.

In the last 6 drafts there have been 23 d-men chosen in the top 10 and only 9 picked in the top 4

Of the 9 picked in the top 4
Seth Jones (2013)
Ryan Murray (2012)
Griffin Reinhart (2012)
Adam Larson (2011)
Erik Gudbranson (2010)
Victor Hedman (2009)
Drew Doughty (2008)
Zach Bogosian (2008)
Alex Pietrangelo (2008)

Only 3 (Doughty, Pietroangelo and Hedman) have established themselves as clear cut #1 D-men. Using Pietrangelo’s 2 years of juniors after being drafted there is still a chance 3 (Jones, Murray and Reinhart) have a chance to be a clear cut #1 and the other 3 look like they might end up topping out at #3/4 as Larson and Gudbranson and Bogosian are running out of runway.

On the other 14 picked in the top 10 3 Trouba and Brodin and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are really close to that clear cut #1 status. . 7 are still developing and have a reasonable chance of being a clear cut #1 d-man…
Luke Schenn and Cowan seem to have topped out as #4

Two (Dylan McIlrath and Koekker) are giving all signs of being a bust.

Of the 23 top ten picks only 6 have contributed at the NHL level as a 19 year olds ( Doughty, Jones, Larson, Schenn, Bogosian, Ristolainen) 3 haven’t developed as fast or as high as anyone would have wanted and the data on Jones and Ristolainen is very thin.

Top 10 overall Defensemen pick over the last 6 years

2013

Seth Jones #1 D-man #4 overall... ( 20 minutes a game, -23 on non-playoff team)

Darnell Nurse #2 D-man #7 overall ( basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old)

Rasmus Ristolainen #3 D-man #8 overall (19 minutes a game in 34 games -15 for bottom team

2012

Ryan Murray #1 D-man #2 overall ( as a 19 year old basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old as 20 year old #4 D-man on playoff team)

Griffin Reinhart #2 d-man #4 overall ( as a 19 year old basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old maybe a bit worse as 20 year old better year as a junior)

Morgan Rielly #3 D-man #5 overall (back to Jr as 19 year old #5 d-man on Leafs as 20 year old)

Hampus Lindholm #4 D-man #6 overall (AHL as 19 year old , #4/5 with the Ducks as a 20 year old)

Mathew Dumba #5 D-man #7 overall (junior as a 19 year old, somehow got 13 games with the Wild as a 20 year old as 5/6 and then had a very strong Jr season)

Derrick Pouliot #6 D-man #8 overall (Jr as a 19 year old, dominate Junior as 20 year old)

Jacob Trouba #7 D-man #9 overall ( Freshman at Michigan as 19 year old and #1 D man on the Jets as a 20 year old. so far the best d-man picked in the 2012 draft)

Slater Koekkoek #8 D-man #10 0verall ( 2 more years of so-so Junior... drafted with only 26 games played in his draft year)

2011

Adam Larrson #1 d-man #4 overall (#5 D-man on good NJ team as an 19 year old and then as a 4/5 as a 20 year old and then a year with split seasons between AHL and the Devils as a 21 year old)

Dougie Hamilton #2 d-man #8 overall (Junior as 19 year old, 2 years as #5 D-man with Boston)

Jonas Brodin #3 D-man #10 overall ( a year in Sweden as 19 year old...straight to #2 with the Wild .. best D-man of the 2011 crop so far)

2010

Erik Gudbranson #1 D-man #3 overall (19 year old Jr., 5/6 with Florida as 20 year old and 2 more years as #4/5)

Dylan McIlrath #2 D-man #10 overall (19 and 20 year old Jr., then 2 years in the AHL)

The best d-man from 2010 was #3 d-man #12 overall Cam Fowler who jumped to the Ducks as a 19 year old and had 2 seasons of -25 and -28.

2009

Victor Hedman #1 D-man #2 overall (straight to Tampa as a 19 year old as 1/2 for 5 years) Best d-man drafted in 2009

Oliver Ekman-Larsson #2 D-man #6 overall ( 19 year old season in Sweden , 5/6 D-man with Phx as 20 year old and 1/2 since)

Jared Cowen #3 D-man #9 overall (19 year old and 20 year old season in Junior a year a 4/5, a year lost to injury and a year as 3/4)

2008

Drew Doughty #1 D-man #2 overall (Immediately became Kings #1 D-man was best D-man drafted)

Zach Bogosian #2 d-man #3 overall (#4/5 d-man with Atlanta as 19 year old , top 3 d-man since)

Alex Pietrangelo #3 d-man #4 overall (2 year back to juniors, #1 D-man with St.L since)

Luke Schenn #4 d-man #5 overall (#4 D-man with Leafs as 19 year old , bad years a 20 year old, then a year as top 4 and then 5/6 and then top 4 and then 5/6?????)

[Coach]

Yes.

But they won't have the chance IMO.

[ignite09]

Non issue, he'll be gone by #4

[Sylvanfan]

If Ekblad is there at 4, the only thing you make sure you do, is not knock over anyone or anything as you run to the podium to make the pick.

[puckluck2]

Yes and I'm not even a big fan of his.

[dammage79]

Yes.

[codynw]

If he's there at 4th, absolutely. If they trade up, I like Reinhart more.

[saillias]

Just have a bone to pick with a statement you made - you called Hedman a clear cut #1 while calling OEL "almost there"

If you just want to call Hedman a #1 that's fine with me but OEL has clearly established himself as the best defenseman in that draft class, and it's been that way since the lockout shortened 13-14 season.

[sun]

Absolutely, but it's pretty unlikely IMO.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, if he's there at #4 it's a pretty obvious pick IMO.

Unless something crazy happens, like a wild card making his way into the top 3 which pushes Ekblad AND one of the Sam's down and they're both available at #4....which is highly unlikely.

EG -

Florida - Bennett
Buffalo - Dal Colle or Ehlers for example
Edmonton - Draisaitl
Calgary - Choice between Ekblad and Reinhart

If it's me I take the center because BPA is too close to call and elite centers are harder to acquire down the road IMO.

[FAN]

You try to draft the best player available. With that said, it seems like forward depth is more important these days than being stacked on defense. Still I think you are too preoccupied with whether a defenseman is a clearcut #1 guy and how early they are able to contribute. Defensemen take longer to develop but they also typically stay effective longer. Even an ideal #3 can be a stud defensemen for years.

[Table 5]

I would almost never draft a Dman at 1, but if he's still there at 4 and Reinhart and Bennett aren't, I'd take him for sure.

[Gaskal]

Yes, I'd be doing cartwheels.

[MrMastodonFarm]

If Ekblad is there at 4 it's a complete no brainer.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I would almost never draft a Dman at 1, but if he's still there at 4 and Reinhart and Bennett aren't, I'd take him for sure.

so you would have Reinhart and Bennett rated higher than Ekblad?

That would mean that it might come to Edmonton having a choice between Ekblad and Draisaitl.... and the Oilers have already waited one year for Nurse.


There has to be some kind of pressure on Lowe and the alumni running the team in Edmonton to at least play .500 hockey. Drafting Ekblad means you think you will be around in 3 years when he has a chance to make an impact.

[Huntingwhale]

Is the ''propaganda'' really that big that Draisaitl is Edmonton's #1 choice? To me it seems like wishful thinking on the Flames fans' part. Of course they are going to pick Ekblad if he's available. Everyone in Edmonton from management to the janitor knows they need to start having impact defensemen more then they need forwards. Year after year all everyone does is criticize the oilers for their lack of quality NHL defenders. Ekblad falling to us and the oilers picking Draisaitl is a pipe dream that Flames fans have concocted to make ourselves feel better. No way in hell Edmonton passes on him.

[keratosis]

Bpa.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

so you would have Reinhart and Bennett rated higher than Ekblad?

To me they all seem pretty close, but I'm one of those guys who thinks that when all is relatively equal, it's smarter to draft the position which historically has always had a better chance of turning into a star. Elite Center's are rarely ever drafted out of the Top 5....Dmen on the other hand can be pretty unpredictable.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Is the ''propaganda'' really that big that Draisaitl is Edmonton's #1 choice? To me it seems like wishful thinking on the Flames fans' part. Of course they are going to pick Ekblad if he's available. Everyone in Edmonton from management to the janitor knows they need to start having impact defensemen more then they need forwards. Year after year all everyone does is criticize the oilers for their lack of quality NHL defenders. Ekblad falling to us and the oilers picking Draisaitl is a pipe dream that Flames fans have concocted to make ourselves feel better. No way in hell Edmonton passes on him.

Shhh. Nurse, Kefblom and Musil are depth enough.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Edmonton won't pass on Ekblad. With that being said, if Florida does not pick Ekblad at #1, I wouldn't be surprised if Burke/Treliving trades Buffalo to get the #2 pick for Ekblad. I think our path for who we pick depends on who Florida picks first.