CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

We need a lynch at some point here. We have a few days, but it's still early in the game for real info I think. I'm still going to wait too help reach hammer though.

I really feel Rathji is a better target

You keep saying that it's too early to have any real info to go on but we have have 10 card flips, and 3 nights of the cop being able to investigate people. When do you think we will have info to go on?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I could be open to changing, but at this point I am not seeing it, with somemore "evidence" I would be willing to change my vote.

I think finding mafia is going to take more than looking for 'evidence' in the form of slip ups. The better tell is patterns in their posting/voting and how they interact with known mafia etc.

Look back at the agulati vote and how CC bailed once the vote was assured to lay some ground work on Lego before this recent bizarre exchange.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by starseed

I think finding mafia is going to take more than looking for 'evidence' in the form of slip ups. The better tell is patterns in their posting/voting and how they interact with known mafia etc.

Look back at the agulati vote and how CC bailed once the vote was assured to lay some ground work on Lego before this recent bizarre exchange.

...and the aS pileon vote quickly leading to the lynch.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

You keep saying that it's too early to have any real info to go on but we have have 10 card flips, and 3 nights of the cop being able to investigate people. When do you think we will have info to go on?

3 votes. Only 3.

Night kills so early are fairly random when there's 2 mafia. I'm not sure it tells us much.

I'm going by the three votes and that leads me to Rathji. I don't think we'll find much protection so early on with three in each mafia still.

By the end of this lynch we'll have a little more to go on I think.

Rathji agreed with Devo22, has no real "town" posts that I could find, lots of posturing and has voted as a pile on for all three lynches. Who has more evidence?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

3 votes. Only 3.

Night kills so early are fairly random when there's 2 mafia. I'm not sure it tells us much.

I'm going by the three votes and that leads me to Rathji. I don't think we'll find much protection so early on with three in each mafia still.

By the end of this lynch we'll have a little more to go on I think.

Rathji agreed with Devo22, has no real "town" posts that I could find, lots of posturing and has voted as a pile on for all three lynches. Who has more evidence?

unvote

SP, i have been looking for the Rathji/devo22 post(s), but can't find it.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

unvote

SP, i have been looking for the Rathji/devo22 post(s), but can't find it.

Here you are:

Originally Posted by devo22

I can understand that reasoning and at this point, there's not much I can say to defend myself. The first vote was primarily gut feeling (really, there wasn't a lot info to go with on day 1) and I was wrong. The second cardflip really surprised me because I was convinced agulati was mafia. Just bad luck to strike out twice and that's why I'm still hesitant with vote #3 today.

I really just want to add that both GGG and kermitology are not on that list for the lone reason that after hmmhmmcamo, they unvoted agulati very late and to me, that strikes me as suspicious. Mafia knew that there were more than enough votes for agulati already and the lynch would still go through if a couple mafiosos unvoted. Great defense when you think about it, isn't it? "Well I knew he was town, I didn't lynch him, I unvoted!"

Originally Posted by Rathji

I am glad that I am not the only one who sees that.

[Rathji]

Do you disagree that it is something worth noticing?

Is not like I jumped on a band wagon, I has suspicions about GGG due to the ineedanother fiasco, and if there was a connection of either with mafia, or with both him and Kermit trying to pull something like he was is happening now, by railroading people who voted for town, then it is quite important. I only verbalized the fact that I noticed it because I figured people would be on my back (either because I was right about GGG and the mafia would target me, or because I started the Lynch of a Townie.

The fact that you are thinking it is anything beyond that is quite strange in my eyes, especially since there have been quite a few people who have been suspicious of your actions. The only reason I mention this here is that when I flip town people are going to be gunning for the person who was trying to find a flimsy thread to distract from starseed being lynched .

That is a much stronger thread than what you are presenting against me, so hopefully the other town take a strong look at both you and starseed if I end up dead

[Street Pharmacist]

I'll go starseed first of that helps prove my intentions

[Street Pharmacist]

One of the difficulties in this hand is sick a post like devo22's. Mafia can also hint the other mafia, so posts like these are likely genuine and therefore harder to spot misdirection. Having said that, it doesn't clear Rathji in my mind from collaborating in trying to get GGG.

I still have some suspicions of starseed even though I doubt it more than Rathji. I'm barely more than 50% certain on either, but in this game that's a lot. In order to prove my intentions in changing my vote and will lead the parade to Rathji next day. If I turn up dead overnight, you know where to look for mafia.

Unvote

Vote: Starseed

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Do you disagree that it is something worth noticing?

Is not like I jumped on a band wagon, I has suspicions about GGG due to the ineedanother fiasco, and if there was a connection of either with mafia, or with both him and Kermit trying to pull something like he was is happening now, by railroading people who voted for town, then it is quite important. I only verbalized the fact that I noticed it because I figured people would be on my back (either because I was right about GGG and the mafia would target me, or because I started the Lynch of a Townie.

The fact that you are thinking it is anything beyond that is quite strange in my eyes, especially since there have been quite a few people who have been suspicious of your actions. The only reason I mention this here is that when I flip town people are going to be gunning for the person who was trying to find a flimsy thread to distract from starseed being lynched .

That is a much stronger thread than what you are presenting against me, so hopefully the other town take a strong look at both you and starseed if I end up dead

Rathji,

I unvoted, but you will notice I did not re-vote.


I am very wary of us voting too soon or making too quick of a decision.

To be honest I agree that the evidence for Starseed is strong, but I want to make sure I make the correct vote.

We have until Thursday to vote, and I really can't think of a good reason to speed the lynch up. I think we can all agree that we have made some mistakes by not using all the time we have.

I want to go back and take a look at where the discussion went after the Agulati kill. Strombad agreed to throw himself on his sword if he was wrong. Yet, here we are dicussion you, Starseed, and well Legoman and Captain Crunch......who the hell knows. I want to see how we got away from or didn't even discuss Strombad.

I think it is very telling if a player wants to rush this lynch.

[Street Pharmacist]

^^ hand=game and sick=such. Stupid SwiftKey

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

One of the difficulties in this hand is sick a post like devo22's. Mafia can also hint the other mafia, so posts like these are likely genuine and therefore harder to spot misdirection. Having said that, it doesn't clear Rathji in my mind from collaborating in trying to get GGG.

I still have some suspicions of starseed even though I doubt it more than Rathji. I'm barely more than 50% certain on either, but in this game that's a lot. In order to prove my intentions in changing my vote and will lead the parade to Rathji next day. If I turn up dead overnight, you know where to look for mafia.

Unvote

Vote: Starseed

Damn it SP, you were the one that started me second guessing myself with all your Rathji talk. I was on Starseed till you kept brining up Rathji.

I find your flip flop very interesting/challenging/confusing.

vote: Starseed


I am still going to go back and review how things went post Agulati kill.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Rathji,

I unvoted, but you will notice I did not re-vote.


I am very wary of us voting too soon or making too quick of a decision.

To be honest I agree that the evidence for Starseed is strong, but I want to make sure I make the correct vote.

We have until Thursday to vote, and I really can't think of a good reason to speed the lynch up. I think we can all agree that we have made some mistakes by not using all the time we have.

I want to go back and take a look at where the discussion went after the Agulati kill. Strombad agreed to throw himself on his sword if he was wrong. Yet, here we are dicussion you, Starseed, and well Legoman and Captain Crunch......who the hell knows. I want to see how we got away from or didn't even discuss Strombad.

I think it is very telling if a player wants to rush this lynch.

I think Strombad is a townie that was waaaaay too sure if himself after an amazing streak of being right in the last game. Why would a Mafia be so blatant so early on?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I think Strombad is a townie that was waaaaay too sure if himself after an amazing streak of being right in the last game. Why would a Mafia be so blatant so early on?

Yeah, that's why I want to go back and see if there was a post that took the tread away from Strombad living up to his part of the bargain.


Also, who the hell goes to Russia during this re-freezing of the cold war?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Yeah, that's why I want to go back and see if there was a post that took the tread away from Strombad living up to his part of the bargain.


Also, who the hell goes to Russia during this re-freezing of the cold war?

Russian mafia...

[Rathji]

Some thoughts here, because either SP will get his way and we will lynch a Townie for a 4th night in a row, or I will get night killed in an attempt for the mafia to silence support that is accurate.

The last day or so nothing has been put forth that seems like a credible theory to many people beyond starseed.

SP is claiming that starseed isn't mafia because his last couple posts are too town, then goes on a direct crusade against one of the major supporters of a starseed Lynch, me.

Flameswin and Baxter posting the whole "look how they all stopped posting" in an attempt to derail discussion by making people scared to post for fear of being lumped in with the vague group of people they were accusing. To me that screamed like a setup that the arranged outside the thread, especially since they both have accusations against over day 3 and day 4. I started thinking about this and the only reason this makes sense is that they were happy with the current situation ie starseed being lynched . If I am right, then it means one more point for starseed in the potential town column, or at least not in the same mafia as Flameswin and Baxter.

I know someone posted some theories about who was in which mafia, but I have no idea who it was or what they said, so I will have to go see if this theory matches up with that.

Not really something I can do on my phone though, so will check when I get home.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Some thoughts here, because either SP will get his way and we will lynch a Townie for a 4th night in a row, or I will get night killed in an attempt for the mafia to silence support that is accurate.

The last day or so nothing has been put forth that seems like a credible theory to many people beyond starseed.

SP is claiming that starseed isn't mafia because his last couple posts are too town, then goes on a direct crusade against one of the major supporters of a starseed Lynch, me.

Flameswin and Baxter posting the whole "look how they all stopped posting" in an attempt to derail discussion by making people scared to post for fear of being lumped in with the vague group of people they were accusing. To me that screamed like a setup that the arranged outside the thread, especially since they both have accusations against over day 3 and day 4. I started thinking about this and the only reason this makes sense is that they were happy with the current situation ie starseed being lynched . If I am right, then it means one more point for starseed in the potential town column, or at least not in the same mafia as Flameswin and Baxter.

I know someone posted some theories about who was in which mafia, but I have no idea who it was or what they said, so I will have to go see if this theory matches up with that.

Not really something I can do on my phone though, so will check when I get home.

It was by GGG:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=961

Originally Posted by GGG

In case I die tonight here is my complete set of logic based on my multitudes of posts.
Mafia 1 – Focused on One Thing
Strombad - Singular focus, Death pact
Legoman – Singular Focus, Inactive during Vig
UCB – lower suspicion then the other two but he also fits the singular focus. He focuses on eliminating the lowest posters without really attacking anyone else (until legoman today). The problem with the low post strategy is that everyone who was experienced would be aware that inactivity was a tell last game. Inactive during Vig. Jumped on the unvote Bandwagon along with Dsal and Kermit
Starseed- originally I had him leaning player as I though he posted follow the leader before ineed made his list. Ineeds list had gpmatt on it, myself and someone else. Since then he has continually focused on this being the best strategy even after it failed twice
Mafia 2 Try to sneak by while not appearing inactive
Activestick Strombads suspicion, lack of posting, inactive during vig
Baxter Renegade – was inactive, called out, became active
Crazy Bacon Legs – Inactive during VIG, Posts aren’t entertaining but not useful
My final person in here is a pretty weak suspicion but if I am dead I want to look good if I am right. DSav, experienced player, inactive during key event and jumped on the unvote bandwagon. This one is the weakest of my suspicions and really a pure guess but Dsav offered much more last game.
I won’t be back until after 10, hopefully we get the unvotes in time.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

One of the difficulties in this hand is sick a post like devo22's. Mafia can also hint the other mafia, so posts like these are likely genuine and therefore harder to spot misdirection. Having said that, it doesn't clear Rathji in my mind from collaborating in trying to get GGG.

I still have some suspicions of starseed even though I doubt it more than Rathji. I'm barely more than 50% certain on either, but in this game that's a lot. In order to prove my intentions in changing my vote and will lead the parade to Rathji next day. If I turn up dead overnight, you know where to look for mafia.

Unvote

Vote: Starseed

Couple thoughts on the bolded sections.

I didn't attempt to do anything against GGG, but I still had that nagging feeling in the back of my head that my gut instinct was correct (likely due to confirmation bias).

I am barely more than 50% sure on starseed either, but until my thinking this morning about flameswin and baxter (in my post previous to this), no one else was even close. I need to look further into the accusations against them in the past two game days before I change my vote though.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I think Strombad is a townie that was waaaaay too sure if himself after an amazing streak of being right in the last game. Why would a Mafia be so blatant so early on?

Just a note on this, I was half convinced he was the cop and was had lucked on the first night on investigating the person he had verbalized suspicions of. That thinking was what had me supporting him.

Unfortunately, I didn't really take into account who the poster was, or my other interactions with him on the forum since he signed up, or I might have not been so willing to agree with him.

[Street Pharmacist]

My god I hope the Mafia aren't sitting back watching the townies hack each other apart before jumping into the fray