Burkie's Challenge Accepted: Lets Make An Analytics System!

[Iceman90]

Brian Burke promised to pay cash for an advanced analytic system that will help them draft better and/or make the team better. I'd like nothing more than to take Brian Burke's cold hard cash. I figure lets crowd source this super awesome analytics system, since we have some of the brightest minds in hockey here on CP.

So, who has an idea of where we should start?

[CaptainCrunch]

Everyone break for coffee.

How much cold hard cash are we talking about?

[SebC]

I'd like to know how Burke is assessing this, because as far as I'm concerned such systems already exist.

[photon]

We should start with a statistician. I don't even know one let alone one that posts on CP.

[troutman]

[terminator]

Originally Posted by photon

We should start with a statistician. I don't even know one let alone one that posts on CP.

Here but I'll pass.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by photon

We should start with a statistician. I don't even know one let alone one that posts on CP.

I don't think we need anything earth shattering, just a fresh perspective and a couple of stats classes. I took stats on university, does that count?

[Coach]

Economics degree here with lots of stats courses and sports econ. If someone else wants to gather a bunch of data im in for helping with regressions and such.

[Wood]

I'll supervise

[Stupid]

Originally Posted by troutman

42?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by troutman

Well, that rules you out.

There are, in my experience, two ways to hear really world-class profanity. One is to talk to a soldier who has drawn any kind of punishment detail three times straight. The other is to talk to a real live statistician about Drake's Equation.

[Skaloper]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'd like to know how Burke is assessing this, because as far as I'm concerned such systems already exist.

Isn't there a Be a GM Mode in NHL 14?

[TheKing]

I don't see how Corsi and Fenwick can't just be modified more. I just woke up but these are a couple quick things I was thinking of, tell me if I'm completely wrong or where and what else could be changed. I'd Make sure you have a full understanding of corsi and what it is and what it isn't though.

Special teams, and combination of goaltending and shot quality is not involved, If it was, I guess that would help you with your defensive positioning and awareness based on the amount of shots in a certain area? Or maybe set a certain value to shots coming from certain positions, with positive or minus depending on if it was up or down a man.

The other major limit to Corsi is the need for contextual nuances. A player’s Corsi% can’t be divorced from the context in which he plays.
There are many different things that can affect a player's Corsi; who they line up against (Quality of Competition), who they line up with (Quality of Linemate), which zone they are predominately deployed in (Offensive Zone Starts), and what line they are on (Time On Ice) are the major ones.

So basically you'd have to come up with a rating system for EVERY player in the NHL based on Corsi, base stats. When comparing you'd need to go with the line that the player spends the majority of his time with(will never be 100% accurate), how many zone starts and where and then have a factor that can some how relate time on ice to skill level at a small enough ratio that 1-3 lines are screwed out of proportion and then take that number and compare it against who they were on the ice against for the most of their TOI and adjust that +/- based on their performance against their competition.

[Boreal]

The only way to truly do this is to work with a group of scouts (pro & amateur), maybe the Flames, and first ensure they are educated and literate in reading, understanding and applying the data and it's limitations. Secondly whatever analytics are developed need to inform the type of team and style of play the organization wishes to implement. Finally the analytics needs to find undervalued players from other organizations that can 1. Play the style of play desired and 2. Inform the understanding of their coaching and development to play the desired style, and 3. Have a methodology to measure efficacy and success.

[TheDebaser]

I've thought about making a stat that could help figure out a shots quality, which could be used to figure out which players are getting good shots off rather than just measuring the amount of pucks hitting the goalie. I could see it being done with just an x,y position from the goal.

There are two ways it could be done.

1)An equation that uses the xy position of a shot to get the angle/distance of a shot to assign it a score. Something like "Quality= Sin(Angle)/Distance" where "Angle = InvTan(y/x)" and "Distance = x^2 + y^2" would output a rough score. More work would be needed.

2)Use tons of data from the entire league to create a kind of heatmap that could assign a shooting % from a given part of the ice. This would be ideal, but it would probably require programming knowledge. (If the data is even out there.)

These stats could be used to measure a player offensively and defensively. Instead of counting shots for and against, count shooting % opportunities for and against.

Ex: If a player gets a 9% and a 15% opportunity in a shift, but the opponent gets a 12% and 14% opportunity, his score would be -.02 for his shift. (I think there's room to improve this with stats knowledge.)

This system would show if a player is not getting tons of chances, but is getting better ones, or if he is keeping players to the outside defensively. Since it's the same idea as corsi, but with shot quality factored in, this is also a possession stat.

What do you guys think?

[BloodFetish]

Originally Posted by terminator

Here but I'll pass.

Tanguay, is that you?

[sun]

We already have an advanced analysis system - the ricardo grit index!

Second time I've mentioned it today actually...

[flylock shox]

If we start with winning as the objective, then take every player with over 400 games, then take the 1/3 of that group with the highest career winning percentage, then split that group into forwards, defencemen, and goalies, the run a factor anaysis of their basic and advanced stats, and then get together with an actuary and talk about what we've done over a beer, then at least we'll have had a beer.

[RandyMarsh]

You have to start with some type of Truculence factor

[AcGold]

2 degrees. Plenty of stats courses and knowledge. Start by understanding the problem. Find correlations in data between one desired factor and another. Burke wants to know about drafting, come up with stats on certain variables. Find the correlation of players drafted in the past with rates of success, points produced, time played etc. to predict the success probability of future prospects based on their available stats. Advanced stats basically means find correlations in calculations with more than 2 variables.