Toronto collapses again, still suck.

[Dion]

[t0rrent98]

Reimer needs to wear this Optimus Reim Mask again, that mask was awesome. I blame his s****yness on his current lid. :P

[19Yzerman19]

BigTuna epitomizes the delusional Leafs fan...

Originally Posted by Tyler Dellow

If reading tables (or, say, emails) isn’t your thing, let me see if I can summarize it. 17 out of the 18 Maple Leafs to play at least 200 minutes with both guys did better in terms their GF/GA ratio when they were on the ice with Grabovski. 18 out of 18 Maple Leafs who played at least 200 minutes with both guys did better in terms of their Corsi% with Grabovski. The only time there’s been an appreciable difference in terms of ZoneStart was this year, when Grabovski’s ZoneStart was about ten points tougher.

Originally Posted by BigTuna

The statistics and facts say Grabovski is worse than Bozak and Kadri. You do realize that?

No. They really don't. Simple, accurate statement based on the time of both in Toronto: everyone is better at everything with Grabovski than with Bozak.

[Scoreface]

Originally Posted by FAN

Huh? Grabovsky was bought out by the Leafs. He had 4 more years remaining on the deal Burke signed him to.

Thanks for reminding me. I totally forgot about that. That just makes things look worse. Cool.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

BigTuna epitomizes the delusional Leafs fan...







No. They really don't. Simple, accurate statement based on the time of both in Toronto: everyone is better at everything with Grabovski than with Bozak.

What season are those stats from when playing with Bozak? Because a lot of those players didn't play with the Leafs this year. Gustavvson, Crabb, Komi, Schenn! These stats must be really old. When the Leafs signed Bozak I thought it was a stupid deal, but he was solid this year and I'm happy with his play. He improved a lot this year, so you can't compare past years from him to this year. He is still a youngish player and this year seems to have turned a corner.

They never should have bought out Grabbo, but that's another story.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Scoreface

Thanks for reminding me. I totally forgot about that. That just makes things look worse. Cool.

Ya it was a pretty bad contract, but Grabovski is a productive offensive player under the right coach.

[Tinordi]

Grabovski isn't going to set the world on fire but he's a very capable NHL center. Arguably better than either Kadri or Bozak and certainly better than David Clarkson.

[Puppet Guy]

[Tinordi]

The stats crowd is really crowing in the fall out. Basically the stats said that Toronto was lucky, not good and they they would regress to the mean and miss the playoffs. Guys like Steve Simmons and Damien Cox kept jawing them saying how deluded the stats people were. Now it has come home to roost for the anti-stats narrative weavers.

[Enoch Root]

And the advocates will pat themselves on the back for being right, and then continue to ignore all the times that they are not.

[strombad]

And really, anyone who looked at their shots against could've said "That's not sustainable."

Nothing really "advanced" about it.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by strombad

And really, anyone who looked at their shots against could've said "That's not sustainable."

Nothing really "advanced" about it.

This.

Every sports show I have seen or heard has been saying this for about 5 months now. Think the biggest surprise is it took so long to fully bite them in the arse.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

What season are those stats from when playing with Bozak? Because a lot of those players didn't play with the Leafs this year. Gustavvson, Crabb, Komi, Schenn! These stats must be really old.

They don't include this season, but that makes them more reliable, because including data from when they were playing on different teams would be misleading. No, they're not old - they're all inclusive. That is everyone. I said, "everyone is better at everything with Grabovski than with Bozak". That chart sets out CF% and GF% for every player who played more than 200 minutes with either Bozak or Grabovski when they were on the Leafs.

Also, he's not youngish. He's 27. We know what we're getting out of Bozak at this point. This season he has an on ice shooting percentage of something like 12%. This is how we evaluate luck: is it more likely that his on ice shooting percentage this year (which is basically driven by Phil Kessel being awesome) is an aberration, or is it more likely that he's as good at creating offence as Martin St. Louis and Ryan Getzlaf of the consistent ~11% ONSH%? Meanwhile, from a possession standpoint he's like 16th on the team, and the team is bad at possession. The only thing I get from Bozak's "good season" is that Phil Kessel and James Van Riemsdyk are dragging their team around the ice, and without elite level goaltending (like the Leafs were getting earlier in the season) that's not going to win you games.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And the advocates will pat themselves on the back for being right, and then continue to ignore all the times that they are not.

This is a really good article on this point: http://theleafsnation.com/2014/3/31/...-i-told-you-so

For me, I don't think this does really vindicate the possession crowd so much. Because while the results were sort of similar to what the statheads predicted, the Leafs are still outperforming expecatations even finishing out of the dance, and no one could have predicted how they got where they are. The path actually tells us quite a bit about how useful these measures are as predictors.

Look at Toronto vs. New Jersey - both about to finish just outside the playoffs. Toronto is an awful possession team, while Jersey is roughly top 5 in that department. How are they in more or less the same spot? Toronto manages to outperform its own possession game on the strength of a top 5 shooting percentage and is 6th in the NHL at ES save percentage when the game is close. The Devils are 23rd and 28th in those numbers. It's a pretty good example of how there's more than one road to success in the NHL, where the statheads have always preached possession. A strong possession game is still the best road to success (there's a reason that the top 5 teams in the league at this are LA, CHI, SJS, STL and BOS) but the Leafs give a lot more context and colour, and hopefully allow for more accurate evaluations in the future.

[bubbsy]

not sure there's that much point in debating the merit of grabovski/kadri/bozak. They are each about the same player, avg to decent 2nd line centers. Having 3 second line centers did little to help the leafs last year, with grabovski pushed into third line duties. The bolland pick up and llosing grabovski was a fair move to upgrade that 3rd line center, though bolland has had a tough year staying healthy.

naturally the clarkson deal was ridiculed when it happened, and has turned out just as many fans/experts/anyone would have expected. there are too many forwards here that don't have any idea what to do in the defensive zone, and a group of defencemen that has the inability to make quick plays to progress the puck under pressure.

Not to say the forwards/defensemen suck in Toronto. Think they have a pretty decent roster, and difficult to pin this on just 1 or 2 guys. The GM hasn't addressed the bigger problems on the roster which is bringing in players that can make plays/have clean breakouts under forechecking pressure, players that know how to position themselves in the defensive zone. The coach has done little to fix the breakout problems of the team in 2 seasons now. It is amazing how many turnovers the leafs have in their own zone on a game by game basis. It is actually one of the reasons the leafs are actually a very fun team to watch. They have loads of offensive talent, and give up so many chances, that the games are pure offensive gems.

very curious what happens in toronto this offseason. Changes in every level (gm, coaching, roster) could be/should be coming.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

not sure there's that much point in debating the merit of grabovski/kadri/bozak. They are each about the same player, avg to decent 2nd line centers.

Bozak isn't even an average 2C. The other guys are. Kadri is pretty good, it's just that his performance last year created wholly unrealistic expectations for him.

naturally the clarkson deal was ridiculed when it happened, and has turned out just as many fans/experts/anyone would have expected.

No, I'm sorry, it's much worse. The problem with the Clarkson deal when it was signed was "too much money for too long structured badly". The idea was that it might look okay in years 1-2, but as the deal went on it would become a complete anchor. Instead, it doesn't even look remotely okay in year 1. On the plus side, this might be a systems thing, as Dellow effectively illustrated 2 weeks ago:
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6818

Not to say the forwards/defensemen suck in Toronto. Think they have a pretty decent roster, and difficult to pin this on just 1 or 2 guys.

Agree with the bolded but it contradicts the point about them having a decent roster. Although the guys who are getting blamed, the stars, aren't the guys responsible. All that talk last week about Kessel not being good enough in his own end... guy is a premier scorer in this league. He cannot singlehandedly put the team in the playoffs.

very curious what happens in toronto this offseason. Changes in every level (gm, coaching, roster) could be/should be coming.

You have to change the GM and coach first. This isn't the Oilers - there is a way to fix this, and there are some pieces in place. But the team needs to stop shooting itself in the foot like they so thoroughly did last summer.

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

BigTuna epitomizes the delusional Leafs fan...







No. They really don't. Simple, accurate statement based on the time of both in Toronto: everyone is better at everything with Grabovski than with Bozak.

LOL. How old is that data? Joey Crabb, Keith Aulie? How about the last 2 years.

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19;4705623[B

]Bozak isn't even an average 2C[/B]. The other guys are. Kadri is pretty good, it's just that his performance last year created wholly unrealistic expectations for him.


No, I'm sorry, it's much worse. The problem with the Clarkson deal when it was signed was "too much money for too long structured badly". The idea was that it might look okay in years 1-2, but as the deal went on it would become a complete anchor. Instead, it doesn't even look remotely okay in year 1. On the plus side, this might be a systems thing, as Dellow effectively illustrated 2 weeks ago:
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6818


Agree with the bolded but it contradicts the point about them having a decent roster. Although the guys who are getting blamed, the stars, aren't the guys responsible. All that talk last week about Kessel not being good enough in his own end... guy is a premier scorer in this league. He cannot singlehandedly put the team in the playoffs.


You have to change the GM and coach first. This isn't the Oilers - there is a way to fix this, and there are some pieces in place. But the team needs to stop shooting itself in the foot like they so thoroughly did last summer.

All facts point to that being untrue.

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6207

Every single player on the team (including Kessel) played better with Grabovski than Bozak.

Very outdated stats. Bozak is better with Kessel. End of story. There's a reason Carlyle/Wilson refused to put Grabovski with Kessel. You can't have a puck-hog centre playing with Phil Kessel.

Also, the example is such a small sample size. Grabovski barely saw the ice with Kessel.

[nik-]

Well whatever the stats say, it's obviously all working out for the Leafs. Keep it up.

[BigTuna]

The only time it worked out for the Leafs when Grabovski was there was when he got reduced to a third-liner.