CP Lockout Mafia - Game Over - Players Win!

[octothorp]

Went and reread the thread, focusing on guys who are still remaining and looking not only at how they vote, but who they voice suspicions about. Someone stating suspicions about a guy who turns out to be MGMT before the votes start to pile up is a stronger tell of being a player than how they vote.

I may have missed votes here and there (it's a long thread and I did this late at night), so if you see that I've made an error about you or someone else, please correct me!

Here are the guys I think have shown reasonably strong player tells:

Wood: vote #2 on drake, #10 on regulator, #5 on timbo
dsavillian: #6 for drake, #3 on regulator (and noted suspicions of regulator earlier).
dissentowner: vote #3 on drake, #7 on timbo, #11 on regulator.
Activestick: was the #2 to vote for regulator on day 2 (later unvoted and then re-voted, so is listed lower in Mazrim's count), and also voiced suspicions of timbo very early on day 3, before anyone else had started to throw suspicions around yet. #10 on drake.
Agulati: noted suspicions of timbo early on (in day 2) and was #4 to vote for him. #12 on drake.
blaster86: not much of a voting record, but did reveal his role. Presumption of his innocence is based on mason not being MGMT. Also first player to reveal identity.
undercoverbrother: #6 on regulator, #6 on drake.
octothorp: noted suspicions on timbo on day 1, posted about timbo’s invisible mode on day 2. Revealed role. #9 on drake, #9 on regulator.


Here are guys I'm on suspicious of:

anduril: he voiced suspicions of timbo early in day 2, hasn't been very active early in the game, is starting to be more active now. #12 for regulator, #7 for timbo. Seems most player-like of these four.
stazzy33: #7 for regulator (and then made a blanket statement the next day about how anyone who voted for regulator couldn't possibly be mafia).
halifaxdrunk: I had a theory about him earlier that I've since withdrawn, it's just too tenuous, but HD hasn't given a lot to go on either way. #6 for timbo.
aeneas: He is the only remaining person who did not vote for any of the 3 MGMT to be outed. Not a lot to go on, but made a suspicious post where, as the votes were piling up for timbo, he voted for the now exonerated Sliver/Delgar. Didn't offer much of an argument for why.

[octothorp]

edit: oops, forgot to mention blaster86's voting record. Doesn't have any counted votes for any of the known MGMT. Did vote for timbo at what would have been #7, then unvoted. So when I said aeneas was the only person not to vote for any known management, blaster86 might also fit this too, depending on how you interpret the vote/unvote.

[Aeneas]

I gave a good reason why I was suspicious of Sliver. He didnt post, thought he was hiding something. Turns out I was wrong. I wanted then, and still do somewhat to go after those who post the least.

If I were the assassin, or mafia; I think I would try to slide by not get noticed.

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by Aeneas

If I were the assassin, or mafia; I think I would try to slide by not get noticed.

which is pretty much what you've done to this point.

[dsavillian]

well, for the last few days anyway

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Aeneas

I gave a good reason why I was suspicious of Sliver. He didnt post, thought he was hiding something. Turns out I was wrong. I wanted then, and still do somewhat to go after those who post the least.

If I were the assassin, or mafia; I think I would try to slide by not get noticed.

So which poster with fewer posts than you would you most be inclined to go after? Dissentowner? Anduril? Stazzy33?

[dsavillian]

Good summary post, octo.

It hinges on a few assumptions though, I hope they are correct

1. That your power would be given to a player only and not to a scum/assassin
2. That the mason's power would only be given to players


I think you are correct with those assumptions though.


I think it will be very hard to pick out who is the assassin. He/she has to lay low enough to not get lynched but not too low so that it appears they are inactive.

[stazzy33]

Since we are getting to the point where I will probably be offed by a lynching, or by the mafia getting me one night I may as well put it out there that I am a player. I am surprised the mafia haven't taken me out yet but because I have been so quiet it's probably worth more taking out the more active players.

Half the time you guys have lynched someone before I even had a chance to vote, which has been worrying for a while. I'll put it out there that I am a player, and that we should go for management and see if we can pinpoint the assassin (if there is one). I would stand to reason that the assassin has been pretty lucky so far not to hit a mafia member. But it should be shortly that he will have to start taking some out. I mean, for him to win, he has to be the last standing. I would be down for voting for Dissentowner or Andruil obviously. Hopefully there is no more mob mentality though.

[dsavillian]

HalifaxDrunk was the first on Blaster on day 1.

Perhaps he was part of the voting block that was drake and regulator?

[Aeneas]

Originally Posted by octothorp

So which poster with fewer posts than you would you most be inclined to go after? Dissentowner? Anduril? Stazzy33?

That's why I did say, somewhat still interested in going after low posting posters.

I think there is a small chance that Dissentowner is mafia. The talking funny thing has gone on with two posters, both players. Would it be daring and clever as mafia to start posting funny?

I have been on the Blaster and Octothorp must be players thing for a long while. Not sure who brought it up but maybe there was a mason on both sides. I don't think we should discount that possibility.

And Octothorp. I dont know if mafia could have a once only daykilling power to go along with all these nightkills. Or, is it possible the assassin also has a one time day kill to go along with his assassinations.

I dont know who I will vote for. I think that due to recent setbacks we should reexamine what we held to be facts.

[Aeneas]

And now I must go quiet for hours. Not skulking or hiding, just busy with kids!

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Went and reread the thread, focusing on guys who are still remaining and looking not only at how they vote, but who they voice suspicions about. Someone stating suspicions about a guy who turns out to be MGMT before the votes start to pile up is a stronger tell of being a player than how they vote.

I may have missed votes here and there (it's a long thread and I did this late at night), so if you see that I've made an error about you or someone else, please correct me!

Here are the guys I think have shown reasonably strong player tells:

Wood: vote #2 on drake, #10 on regulator, #5 on timbo
dsavillian: #6 for drake, #3 on regulator (and noted suspicions of regulator earlier).
dissentowner: vote #3 on drake, #7 on timbo, #11 on regulator.
Activestick: was the #2 to vote for regulator on day 2 (later unvoted and then re-voted, so is listed lower in Mazrim's count), and also voiced suspicions of timbo very early on day 3, before anyone else had started to throw suspicions around yet. #10 on drake.
Agulati: noted suspicions of timbo early on (in day 2) and was #4 to vote for him. #12 on drake.
blaster86: not much of a voting record, but did reveal his role. Presumption of his innocence is based on mason not being MGMT. Also first player to reveal identity.
undercoverbrother: #6 on regulator, #6 on drake.
octothorp: noted suspicions on timbo on day 1, posted about timbo’s invisible mode on day 2. Revealed role. #9 on drake, #9 on regulator.


Here are guys I'm on suspicious of:

anduril: he voiced suspicions of timbo early in day 2, hasn't been very active early in the game, is starting to be more active now. #12 for regulator, #7 for timbo. Seems most player-like of these four.
stazzy33: #7 for regulator (and then made a blanket statement the next day about how anyone who voted for regulator couldn't possibly be mafia).
halifaxdrunk: I had a theory about him earlier that I've since withdrawn, it's just too tenuous, but HD hasn't given a lot to go on either way. #6 for timbo.
aeneas: He is the only remaining person who did not vote for any of the 3 MGMT to be outed. Not a lot to go on, but made a suspicious post where, as the votes were piling up for timbo, he voted for the now exonerated Sliver/Delgar. Didn't offer much of an argument for why.

Good post.

I think what you've laid out is pretty solid to go by, but we may want to throw the Drake history out since he was the first to go so if the Mafia were okay with the strategy to protect the group, it could be misleading.

As their numbers diminish though, we should start to see patterns.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Good post.

I think what you've laid out is pretty solid to go by, but we may want to throw the Drake history out since he was the first to go so if the Mafia were okay with the strategy to protect the group, it could be misleading.

As their numbers diminish though, we should start to see patterns.

That might be reason to add dissentowner into the 'suspect' list, as he voted very early for drake but relatively later for the others. I'd still give him the benefit of the doubt over some of the other guys I listed.

[octothorp]

Can we agree no lynching at 10:00PM tonight? I think we need a lot more discussion than what we have going on right now. We've got a couple days, let's use them.

[activeStick]

I agree. We got lucky the first few times and hit Mafia guys but the last few haven't turned out so well.

[HalifaxDrunk]

Originally Posted by octothorp

halifaxdrunk: I had a theory about him earlier that I've since withdrawn, it's just too tenuous, but HD hasn't given a lot to go on either way. #6 for timbo.

I voted for Blaster right out of the gate, I explained my reason. At that point of the game there was not much evaluate so I picked him because he gave me an infraction when he was a temp CP mod. By the time the tide had turned my vote wasn't need so I figured swapping then was unnecessary and suspicious.

Then I voted for CC who I always had bad vibes about (yes I admit they turned out to be wrong) went to a work meeting came back and Regulator was lynched. Too late to change my vote.

I am curious about your tenuous theory about me? I don't 100% believe you are an innocent player, I still don't understand why a player would have the power to instakill whoever they want whenever they want. Seems more like an assassin's special ability to me. Now you are playing high and mighty, perfect camouflage?

Originally Posted by dsavillian

HalifaxDrunk was the first on Blaster on day 1.

Perhaps he was part of the voting block that was drake and regulator?

See reason posted above.

[undercoverbrother]

I won't be able to give this much attention before the next deadline.

Please accept my apology.

[octothorp]

Request for those who have some time to do some reading:

Go back and read day 2. Read the whole day, beginning to end. Look for efforts to subtly shift attention away from Regulator. I've done this and drawn some conclusions, but I'd like others to do the same. I'd be much more confident about my theory if others independently arrive at the same conclusion.

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Request for those who have some time to do some reading:

Go back and read day 2. Read the whole day, beginning to end. Look for efforts to subtly shift attention away from Regulator. I've done this and drawn some conclusions, but I'd like others to do the same. I'd be much more confident about my theory if others independently arrive at the same conclusion.

Will do, but it will take me some time.

Busy week at work.

[Wood]

I quickly looked through it, and not really sure who it would be

Other than my not so subtle targeting of CC, maybe aeneas?