Higher youth voter turnout could change tone, content and outcome of political debate

[Rerun]

“My vote won’t make any difference.”

It’s a common refrain among those who don’t bother to cast ballots in Canadian elections.

But a new analysis of young non-voters in the last federal election suggests they should think again.

If young people had turned out to vote in the same numbers as the population overall in 2011, pollster Nik Nanos says his research suggests they would have changed not just the outcome of the election but the tone and content of the political debate.

Just over 60 per cent of eligible voters actually cast ballots in 2011. Among those under 30, fewer than 40 per cent bothered to vote.

Working with Kevin Page, the former parliamentary budget officer, on a project aimed at engaging youth in the political process, Nanos has mined data from his daily polling during the 2011 campaign as well as research done for the Institute for Research on Public Policy to answer the question: What if 60 per cent of young people had voted?

His answer: Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives likely wouldn’t have won a majority.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle17626467/

Voting rates by age


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-.../cg00a-eng.htm

Voting rates by age and education


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-.../cg00b-eng.htm



Even though the above article suggests that if young people (those 18-30) voted in higher numbers, the political landscape in Canada would likely change, I suggest that its not that simple. As of 2011 42.4% of the Canadian population was between 45-64 years of age and seniors accounted for 14.8% of the population. Thus those 45 years and older accounted for 57.2% of Canada population in 2011.

I believe that the middle aged and seniors tend to vote conservative (although I couldn't find data to back that up... but I'm sure its out there)

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recen...011001-eng.cfm

[Zulu29]

I'd say you're right. My dad has told me a few times that the older he gets the more conservative he gets. I've always made a point to go vote since I was able but a lot of people my age (early 30's) growing up were almost apathetic to voting. Too bad but I don't know how anything will change it. People for the most part don't care about politics in Canada.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

I'd say you're right. My dad has told me a few times that the older he gets the more conservative he gets. I've always made a point to go vote since I was able but a lot of people my age (early 30's) growing up were almost apathetic to voting. Too bad but I don't know how anything will change it. People for the most part don't care about politics in Canada.

I too, am like your father. The older I became the more conservative I voted.
I started voting at the age of 18 for Pierre Trudeau and voted Liberal for many years. I thought PC's were old fuddy duddys who's only interest was in helping and protecting the large corporations (big money). As I got older and paid more and more taxes and seen those tax dollars wasted repeatedly, I gradually changed my mind as to what was best for Canada and myself. I think the first time I voted Conservative was for Brian Mulroney and the PC party. After that and the PC party downfall I voted Reform... and now CPC.

[FlamesAddiction]

As I get older, I have become more right wing on some issues external issues, but more left on domestic issues.

I can never decide who to vote for as I dislike all the parties a lot... and almost all politicians disgust me. It's like trying to decide whether you want to be raped in the bedroom or the kitchen, or taking a bunch of people you hate and figuring out which one to give a bunch of your money to. Voting never makes me feel like I am doing something good. If you're just trying to find the "lesser evil", then that is a problem.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

As I get older, I have become more right wing on some issues external issues, but more left on domestic issues.

I can never decide who to vote for as I dislike all the parties a lot... and almost all politicians disgust me. It's like trying to decide whether you want to be raped in the bedroom or the kitchen, or taking a bunch of people you hate and figuring out which one to give a bunch of your money to. Voting never makes me feel like I am doing something good. If you're just trying to find the "lesser evil", then that is a problem.

That's kind of depressing...

[CaptainCrunch]

"Show me a young person who doesn't vote liberal and I'll show you a person without a heart. Show me an older person who doesn't vote conservative and I'll show you a person without a brain"

Or something like that, its a quote I read somewhere

[John Doe]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

"Show me a young person who doesn't vote liberal and I'll show you a person without a heart. Show me an older person who doesn't vote conservative and I'll show you a person without a brain"

Or something like that, its a quote I read somewhere

I have heard this before. I think it was just an attempt by an old person to justify selling out their ideals.

[KelVarnsen]

I've shifted more and more left as I've grown older.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Totally OT, but I don't know what the hell is wrong with me. I just read the title of this thread as "Hitler youth voter turnout could change tone, content and outcome of political debate" and I thought to myself, "well duh, of course it could". I think I need a nap.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

I've shifted more and more left as I've grown older.

I've certainly shifted more center, but I doubt I could shift left.

[metallicat]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

"Show me a young person who doesn't vote liberal and I'll show you a person without a heart. Show me an older person who doesn't vote conservative and I'll show you a person without a brain"

Or something like that, its a quote I read somewhere

I knew someone would post that quote. It's a pretty stupid one if you ask me.

[CaptainCrunch]

Yes, but then again you're an Oilers fan

[Erick Estrada]

I vote conservative but have accepted that they are all losers in the grand scheme of things. There is no party that is truly going to make a difference and make things better for Canadians. Most politicians these days are products of self-deception. They actually believe they are doing the right things despite evidence to the contrary. Most of them all liars that have fallen into believing in their lies the more they fall into the illusion the better the politician they become. There isn't really such thing as a truly good politician.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I vote conservative but have accepted that they are all losers in the grand scheme of things. There is no party that is truly going to make a difference and make things better for Canadians. Most politicians these days are products of self-deception. They actually believe they are doing the right things despite evidence to the contrary. Most of them all liars that have fallen into believing in their lies the more they fall into the illusion the better the politician they become. There isn't really such thing as a truly good politician.

Brent Rathgeber stands out as a politician I have a tonne of respect for. He stuck to his morals. I wish more politicians would follow in his steps.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

"Show me a young person who doesn't vote liberal and I'll show you a person without a heart. Show me an older person who doesn't vote conservative and I'll show you a person without a brain"

Or something like that, its a quote I read somewhere

Originally Posted by John Doe

I have heard this before. I think it was just an attempt by an old person to justify selling out their ideals.

Well it was Winston Churchill, so maybe he wasn't thew selling out type!

"Show me a young conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains."

I've heard it #######ized a few different ways through the years.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

"Show me a young person who doesn't vote liberal and I'll show you a person without a heart. Show me an older person who doesn't vote conservative and I'll show you a person without a brain"

Or something like that, its a quote I read somewhere

It was Churchill.

“Show me a young Conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains.”
― Winston Churchill

Still a very self serving idea as the old folks become dependent on the status quo.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

It was Churchill.

It's actually falsely attributed to Churchill.

"If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain." There is no record of anyone hearing Churchill say this. Paul Addison of Edinburgh University makes this comment: "Surely Churchill can't have used the words attributed to him. He'd been a Conservative at 15 and a Liberal at 35! And would he have talked so disrespectfully of Clemmie, who is generally thought to have been a lifelong Liberal?"

https://www.winstonchurchill.org/lea...ely-attributed

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

I've shifted more and more left as I've grown older.

Likewise. I've shifted more left as I've grown older, gotten smarter, and began making a higher income.

It's weird how "Rah rah f--k social programs, bootstraps, took arr jerbs, etc" I was at ~$50k a year and how my viewpoint is "We should do our best to help our less fortunate" where I am now. I still don't want that to translate into "needlessly throw money at a problem", rather we should approach problems with effective solutions, and the cost will be worth it if successful.

[shrug]

[Daradon]

It's funny, I've gone back and forth. Which is why I say I'm centrist for the most part. When I turned of age I voted Reform (maybe it was newly Alliance, I can't remember) I think a lot of that was because of how we in the West felt. But besides that I was big into business and finance and was even introduced to people as 'this young Republican's name is...' haha.

I always had some left leaning ideals because of my health and family situation. Single mom, that sort of thing. I think increasing struggles in my 20's pulled me a bit more down that path. Also while it really didn't affect us in Canada much, the Bush government showed the big problems with the current right revival and had me taking more hard lines in some opinions. Not just some of the usual bogeymen which are bad when taken into excess, like money in politics (which I guess is really any party) too much corporate control and of course the Iraq mess. But the invasion of religion into politics was a big problem for me, and of course has been mirrored here in Canada and Alberta to a smaller extent. That, and it's result, decreasing use and reliance of science when making political decisions, in some cases, the muzzling of science, puts me at odds with current conservative governments.

Now, a bit older, I've calmed down a little, as many do in their 30's. Also have learned from some people right here on CP about doing due diligence (or better diligence anyway, as I was never terrible at it) when researching events and issues that form my political opinions. So while my values haven't changed that much, my higher level of acceptance of complexity of some situations, or curiosity when exploring the other side has shifted me back a little.

I think people on the board think I am quite left because I'm reacting to the conservative governments of the time, both here and down south. I think that if we had left governments here, or when we will, you'll see a lot of opinions against them as well.

It's funny, while there is enough truth to say that younger people trend liberal and older people trend conservative (heck, even the word old factors into the nomenclature of conservative, as people are trying to conserve what they know from the past) it's hardly a hard and fast rule. My mom for example has become far more liberal in aging. The biggest part of that was she came from a tiny farming town of less than 200 and a very religious family. Living in a city and having kids who challenged her outdated viewpoints changed her lens and eventually her opinions.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Rerun

As I got older and paid more and more taxes and seen those tax dollars wasted repeatedly, I gradually changed my mind as to what was best for Canada and myself. I think the first time I voted Conservative was for Brian Mulroney and the PC party. After that and the PC party downfall I voted Reform... and now CPC.

One of the most hilarious delusions espoused by the right is that conservative governments "waste" less tax dollars, despite overwhelming historical evidence to the contrary.