Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[PIMking]

If the US and the west wanted to really do something they'd be doing it. It's not that people are tired of war, all those war financiers are itching for another war.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Pointman

While there's a lot of truth in your post, it should be noted that it wasn't Russia who was de-stabilizing the situation in Ukraine at the first place. Just a couple of days ago all the western media were about how "the pro-EU people of Ukraine" have toppled the "pro-Moscow" president, and how Russia's interests in the region are defeated. Now that Putin has made decisive - albeit wrong - moves to benefit from the situation, people are talking about how it was his plan from the start.

I'm not sure which you were watching, but a lot of the news up here a lot of it was the corrupt president who stole $70 billion dollars from Ukrainians over three years and a triumph over corruption. CNN isn't the best new source for example.

Let's not be naive here about the plans either, something as tactically sophisticated as an invasion doesn't get planned overnight. You would need to know which buildings to seize, which areas needed to be secured and the logistics of how to move your troops. Targets and key locations need to be identified (as well as their geo location), infrastructure needs to be identified, route planning needs to occur, communications and how to misinform regarding identity of troops needs to be planned. Invasions are tricky business and usually take weeks if not months of coordinated planning. All that combined with how well the press communications happen as well as how coordinated all the troop activity was leaves no doubt about the quality of the planning involved. Given the timelines involved, the plans were probably drawn up prior to the Olympics at minimum.

[FlameOn]

In depth analysis of all the weapons used by the previously unaffiliated troops

Almost all fighters seen are equipped with AK-74M assault rifles, and the odd supplementary AKM-S. The AK-74M is the R.F.'s main service rifle - the only other countries to use it, in small numbers, are Azerbaijan and Cyprus. Neither seems a likely candidate for arming / fielding these troops.

Another Russian Federation weapon - produced after collapse of the USSR, and consequently not possessed by the Ukrainian military or police units. It also fires proprietary ammunition calibre, 43mm, only produced in Russia. The EOtech is particularly telling: it is enormously popular among Russian special forces, but expensive.

These soldiers' weapons are accessorized with add-ons made by the Russian company Zenitco, based in Moscow. Again, these accessories are widely used by the Russian military, predominately special forces who wish to enhance personal weapons.

I've given dollar values just to illustrate that these are not cheap, but milspec systems used by professionals - though of course they don't preclude use by amateurs.

Again, Zenitco accessories. As this gear is purchased by individual soldiers to outfit their personal weapons, it is nonstandard equipment - definitely unlikely

While the PKM machine gun is ubiquitous across the former USSR, the PKP is a much more recent Russian Federation design, easily identifiable by the carrying handle / air cooling apparatus above the barrel. It is not exported or in service with any country other than Russia.

Forgive the crude highlighting, but I was pressed for time. As the description states, these are another arm specific to the Russian Federation, issued to VDV paratroopers and other special units starting in the early '90s - after the collapse of the USSR, thus precluding their issue to other nations such as Ukraine, whose forces do not field them.

Conclusion: at the very least, these irregulars are armed by the Russian Federation. More likely, they are VDV / spetsnaz troops -indicated by a degree of weapon customization (optics, rail systems, etc) not usually seen among conscript troops, even special forces units.

Source

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

I'm not sure which you were watching, but a lot of the news up here a lot of it was the corrupt president who stole $70 billion dollars from Ukrainians over three years and a triumph over corruption. CNN isn't the best new source for example.

I was reading bbc and guardian mostly, such as this Guardian's arcticle 7 days ago, which states that[I] "there's little doubt Russia feels badly cheated" any." and The Russian president is under growing western pressure not to act rashly in Ukraine after the toppling of Russia's ally, Viktor Yanukovych, and the opposition's triumphal clean sweep.

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Let's not be naive here about the plans either, something as tactically sophisticated as an invasion doesn't get planned overnight. You would need to know which buildings to seize, which areas needed to be secured and the logistics of how to move your troops. Targets and key locations need to be identified (as well as their geo location), infrastructure needs to be identified, route planning needs to occur, communications and how to misinform regarding identity of troops needs to be planned. Invasions are tricky business and usually take weeks if not months of coordinated planning. All that combined with how well the press communications happen as well as how coordinated all the troop activity was leaves no doubt about the quality of the planning involved. Given the timelines involved, the plans were probably drawn up prior to the Olympics at minimum.

I'm no military expert, but I'm almost sure that such plans were written years ago, as well, as many other military plans to attack or defend. There was 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. There were some other lesser troubles over there. I believe that Russian military has worked out the "what if another revolution will happen in Ukraine and Crimea would be in danger" scenario long ago. Crimea is right at Russia's borders, it's not like invading Iraq or Kosovo where the first step is find out Iraq on the World Map.

[PIMking]

Is it that cold there that they all have to have their faces covered? Or they ashamed of what they're doing?

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Is it that cold there that they all have to have their faces covered? Or they ashamed of what they're doing?

Neither. It's +8 celsius in Sevastopol now and while I do not support the current action at all, I see no reason for average soldiers to be ashamed. They stepped in to protect Russian people. They are not shooting and killing anyone - at least for now. They are not torturing ukranians, beating anyone, maradeuring and such. On personal level, they are doing nothing wrong (on political level Russia does).

[PIMking]

That was an honest question, and I wasn't trying to provoke a fight

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Neither. It's +8 celsius in Sevastopol now and while I do not support the current action at all, I see no reason for average soldiers to be ashamed. They stepped in to protect Russian people. They are not shooting and killing anyone - at least for now. They are not torturing ukranians, beating anyone, maradeuring and such. On personal level, they are doing nothing wrong (on political level Russia does).

Protecting them from what... the legal repercussions of treason? They might be ethnic Russian, but they are still Ukrainian by nationality.

Should they (Ukrainians) have to tolerate Russian nationalism within their borders any more than Russia has to tolerate nationalism from minority groups in their borders (and we all know how much that is tolerated)? Or is this a case of 'might makes right"?

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

In depth analysis of all the weapons used by the previously unaffiliated troops

Russia isn't denying its our troops, since about yesterday I think.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Neither. It's +8 celsius in Sevastopol now and while I do not support the current action at all, I see no reason for average soldiers to be ashamed. They stepped in to protect Russian people. They are not shooting and killing anyone - at least for now. They are not torturing ukranians, beating anyone, maradeuring and such. On personal level, they are doing nothing wrong (on political level Russia does).

Of course not, the troops are following orders and they shouldn't have anything to be ashamed about. No one is claiming the troops are abusing anyone there either. But what Russia has done is akin to a foreign country going into Chechnya at Chechnya's request against Russia's wishes and saying referendums will be held to determine the whether Chechnya will separate from Russia. The foreign power can claim till they are blue in the face that they're doing to protect Chechan people from another violent crackdown ala the second Chechan-Russia war, doesn't make the violation of Russian sovereignty any more right.

Originally Posted by Pointman

Russia isn't denying its our troops, since about yesterday I think.

No, but the troops claimed to be peoples militia the entire time of the invasion for almost two days all while seizing government buildings, communications pipelines and airports. This is just an analysis of equipment at this point

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Protecting them from what... the legal repercussions of treason? They might be ethnic Russian, but they are still Ukrainian by nationality.

Should they (Ukrainians) have to tolerate Russian nationalism within their borders any more than Russia has to tolerate nationalism from minority groups in their borders (and we all know how much that is tolerated)? Or is this a case of 'might makes right"?

I meant protection on personal level. Particularly from mob disorders and fights that were happening in Crimea after the coup. That post was about whether soldiers themselves should be ashamed and whether soldiers are doing something shameful.

Legal issues will get us nowhere though, it's too complicated, considering that revolutions are not legal however bad the toppled leader was, and considering that Crimeans mostly still support Yanukovich. It could be argued that almost any country was created in illegal way, I mean wasn't USA War for independance illegal from contemprorary British law? Centuries ago Russia grabbed all its lands with military force, which was also "illegal". Things such as most country wanting to get rid of corrupted yet legit president or most of the peninsula wanting to break away from its country are somewhat bigger than laws so to speak, it should be judged on ethnical and moral values rather. Which still makes Russia's actions wrong. I do not support it.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Is it that cold there that they all have to have their faces covered? Or they ashamed of what they're doing?

Pretty standard fare for Special Forces Troops to cover their faces like this, everything is about preventing identification.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

But what Russia has done is akin to a foreign country going into Chechnya at Chechnya's request against Russia's wishes and saying referendums will be held to determine the whether Chechnya will separate from Russia. The foreign power can claim till they are blue in the face that they're doing to protect Chechan people from another violent crackdown ala the second Chechan-Russia war, doesn't make the violation of Russian sovereignty any more right.

To be fair, independent Chechnya would be region's and possibly world's worst nightmare. It is, well, special region, that simply needs to be kept in check. Its criminalization, slavery, hostage-taking and other horrors during the de-facto independence period (1992-94) were mind-blowing. Much like Dagestan, it was terrorists base. Keeping Checnya and Dagestan within Russian borders is not so much about sovereign integrity, but more about simply keeping those dangerous regions more or less in check.

[Pointman]

Russian media are posting pictures of Crimeans being happy about arriving of peaceful Russian forces, such as this:

[Itse]

A conflict like this serves well to highlight the general hypocricies of both the west and the Russians.

To start with the Russians, their standard tactic for delaying any military moves by other nations is to loudly claim that no countries internal matters should be meddled with, and/or wanting to run everything through the UN before anyone "has the right" to do anything, where they have a veto to block anything.

But when it comes to Russia meddling in Ukrainian matters, suddenly there's no such thing as sovereign countries internal matters, and not a peep of UN involvement. (Sorry Pointman, but no way Russia wants UN in on this. The Russians would't allow peacekeepers from anywhere but Russia, and no other countries are going to just suddenly start calling Russian invasion troops UN peacekeepers.)

On the other hand, the west talks a good talk of the right of regions as opposed to countries when it suits them, like it did in Kosovo. But when it's Crimeans were talking about, there's no hint of trying to let the Crimeans decide for themselves what they want to do.

Funny stuff. If you like your humor pitch black and bloodstained.

[Brannigans Law]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Russian media are posting pictures of Crimeans being happy about arriving of peaceful Russian forces, such as this:

[Pointman]

Seems like Russian media went on a full-scale propaganda mode, and I mean respected news sites, not some radical sources. There's an interview by allegedly russian mercenary who was at Maidan on the protesters side, claiming that a lot of mercenaries from USA, Germany and other countries took the part in the protests and they were ruthless and were killing their own mates in case of any disorder. Smells very faked to me. Another site is reporting that ukranian soldiers in Crimea are leaving their sites and joining Crimea/Russian forces. Also all the ukrainian ships left Crimea. Then there's an "analysis" of war expert, who basically says that Russian army would wipe the floor with Ukrainian army in case of any major conflict. Also those pictures of how Crimeanians are happy with Russian forced coming in.

[Itse]

More funny jokes:

Everything moves so fast in this day and age. At least there was two years between Berlin olympics and the taking of the sudetenland.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Locke

Well, we could give them some land in Saskatchewan....

Tone it down

[SeeGeeWhy]

If the Ukrainian government wanted to surprise the hell out of everyone, they would be sending troops and other assets in to crimera under the objective of helping to defend Russian interests in the Black Sea until the revolutions stabilize. This is obviously a unique situation and no matter what government emerges, they will need to curry favour with both The Russian federation and the EU, based on their own goals. Tricky. Defying the Russians is an easy thing to do, given the disrupted and defensive state of mind Ukrainians must be in from the riots.

Stratfor has always talked about Ukraine's importance and geopolitical potential. I believe Friedmann even goes so far as to suggest it could be one of three super powers that emerges in the next 100 years.