[News] Salary Cap expected to increase

[TurnedTheCorner]

Oh, OK. I understand what you meant now, I just disagree at how easy it is to forecast the fx rate accurately I guess. Agree to disagree and leave it at that -- for me at least.

[Enoch Root]

As a former FX trader all I can say is lol at the currency predictions (no one knows where it will be in a year - no one)

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Disingenuous? Is it or is it not predicted to drop into the $0.80's? I don't think we will see a $0.70 dollar for a long time but even a few cents on the dollar lost is a lot of money in the big picture. All I'm saying is that is that the value of the Canadian dollar plays a big role in league revenues. When the dollar drops so does the revenues of the Canadian teams which have led the league over the past decade.

Disingenuous and false are different things. As I said, the forecast is that it *COULD* hit an extreme low of 0.88 cents. It is not predicted to go that low, it is simply a possibility. If it happens to go that low, it would be for such an insignificant period of time that it's effect would be insignificant, so to bring it up as though it's important is laughable.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's not that difficult as I said earlier it's being forecasted to end 2014 at around $0.90. Is a $0.90 dollar next year relevant to next years cap? Probably not but it will be relevant the following season. Capisce?

As Enoch said, forecasting what the dollar will be at come this time next year is about as valuable as forecasting what Calgary weather will be on January 1st. Plus, it's only "being forecasted" to end at 0.90 by one source (TD according to you?), as no major credible source in the business field has been quoted as saying anything similar. The closest any well respected forecasters have said is that it will likely stabilise around 0.93 for the year (as in, it will likely float around that. Nobody is predicting it WILL hit the 80's or that it WILL end at 0.90. Nobody credible at least).

Honestly, the currency discussion is so insignificant to the cap right now and anytime in the near future that I'm not sure why you would bring it up.

Keep on it if you'd like, but it's about as relevant as having a "Who will replace Monahan if an injury ends his career in 2018/19" discussion.

[devo22]

Let's assume it's $70m next season. So, as of today, our roster for next year looks like this:

FORWARDS
Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.500m) / David Jones ($4.000m)
Sven Baertschi ($0.894m) / Sean Monahan ($0.925m) / Jiri Hudler ($4.000m)
Unknown / Unknown / Unknown
Unknown / Unknown / Brian McGrattan ($0.750m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dennis Wideman ($5.250m) / Mark Giordano ($4.020m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / T.J. Brodie ($2.125m)
Unknown / Unknown
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m)

GOALTENDERS
Karri Ramo ($2.750m) / Unknown

------

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $34,264,167; BONUSES: $1,381,250
CAP SPACE (13-man roster): $35,735,833

So that's about 15m to spend for 10 players just to get to the floor. If the Flames re-sign one or two of their pending UFAs and/or sign one or two on the open market, they should be good to go. Will be close though ... this lineup would only barely be compliant, although it would mean to overpay a few players:

FORWARDS
Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.500m) / Lee Stempniak ($4.250m)
Sven Baertschi ($0.894m) / Sean Monahan ($0.925m) / Jiri Hudler ($4.000m)
T.J. Galiardi ($1.750m) / Joe Colborne ($1.250m) / David Jones ($4.000m)
Lance Bouma ($1.250m) / Corban Knight ($0.900m) / Brian McGrattan ($0.750m)
Max Reinhart ($0.618m) / Blair Jones ($1.000m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Dennis Wideman ($5.250m) / Mark Giordano ($4.020m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / T.J. Brodie ($2.125m)
Kris Russell ($3.750m) / Patrick Sieloff ($0.925m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /

GOALTENDERS
Karri Ramo ($2.750m)
Reto Berra ($1.500m)

------

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $51,457,500; BONUSES: $4,491,250
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $18,542,500

sooo ... looking at that, the Flames will have little choice but to sign another UFA if they don't want to "scrape the barrel" to make the floor.

[TurnedTheCorner]

I don't know which of Cammallerri, Stajan, and Stempniak will be back -- I personally expect one of them to return. That would put the Flames over the cap floor right there. Having said that, chances are another UFA or two that is currently outside the organization could sign as well.

There should be some happy UFAs this off-season.

EDIT: Oops, missed Stempniak on your proposed roster. I hate that capgeek layout and tool, I must have skimmed past him.

[neo45]

I'd rather not pay Stempniak double just for the hell of it. The Owners don't think that way either

Russell at 3.75 seems high as well, but Stempniak isn't getting anything over 3

[devo22]

Originally Posted by neo45

I'd rather not pay Stempniak double just for the hell of it. The Owners don't think that way either

Russell at 3.75 seems high as well, but Stempniak isn't getting anything over 3

as I said - I even had to overpay a few players to get to the floor.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by neo45

I'd rather not pay Stempniak double just for the hell of it. The Owners don't think that way either

Russell at 3.75 seems high as well, but Stempniak isn't getting anything over 3

Those aren't that unrealistic if the cap goes up another 10%, especially for ufas. There's going to be quite a few cashing in methinks

[Brannigans Law]

Originally Posted by The Familia

I was going to be that guy, but since you have a better idea, please explain to me why there had to be two lockouts in the last decade? What was the purpose and what did it accomplish for either side? I clearly understand that the cap is tied to revenue, and because of Sportsnet, revenue will be going up. I'll give it a few more years when players are at an average of $6 million each and the owners are crying again. I gurantee there will be another lockout at the conclusion of this deal. Must be nice to be rolling in the cash. This league makes me sick.

The point of the lock out is so that the players can ONLY have a certain % of the revenue. If we had no lock outs like the players wanted right now the average team and player salary would be spiraling out of control and teams would be going bankrupt.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Brannigans Law

The point of the lock out is so that the players can ONLY have a certain % of the revenue. If we had no lock outs like the players wanted right now the average team and player salary would be spiraling out of control and teams would be going bankrupt.

neither side cares about the fans it is what it is

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As a former FX trader all I can say is lol at the currency predictions (no one knows where it will be in a year - no one)

its going to be lower than it has been the last couple years, how much lower is anybodies guess

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Those aren't that unrealistic if the cap goes up another 10%, especially for ufas. There's going to be quite a few cashing in methinks

Who else is ready for us to sign Stastny, Callahan, and Phaneuf to big contracts ($21 million cap hit) to get to the cap floor.

I honestly expect Burke to go hard after big names on UFA day. The Flames could throw out 3 pretty ridiculous contracts and still be in an alright cap position.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Paul Stastny ($7.000m) / Ryan Callahan ($6.000m)
Sven Baertschi ($0.894m) / Sean Monahan ($0.925m) / Jiri Hudler ($4.000m)
T.J. Galiardi ($2.000m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.500m) / David Jones ($4.000m)
Michael Ferland ($0.612m) / Joe Colborne ($1.500m) / Lance Bouma ($1.200m)
Corban Knight ($0.900m) / Brian McGrattan ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($7.500m) / Mark Giordano ($4.020m)
Kris Russell ($3.000m) / T.J. Brodie ($2.125m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / Dennis Wideman ($5.250m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Karri Ramo ($2.750m)
Reto Berra ($2.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,476,639; BONUSES: $4,417,083
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $3,823,361

Note: These are just an example. I doubt the Flames actually get 3 big-name UFAs but I think Feaster and Burke will try.

[Brannigans Law]

Originally Posted by dino7c

neither side cares about the fans it is what it is

Maybe not but the owners interest align with mine as a hockey fan in a Canadian city. If it were up to the players the league would be out of the price range of almost all Canadian markets except for Toronto MTL and Vancouver.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Who else is ready for us to sign Stastny, Callahan, and Phaneuf to big contracts ($21 million cap hit) to get to the cap floor.

I honestly expect Burke to go hard after big names on UFA day. The Flames could throw out 3 pretty ridiculous contracts and still be in an alright cap position.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Curtis Glencross ($2.550m) / Paul Stastny ($7.000m) / Ryan Callahan ($6.000m)
Sven Baertschi ($0.894m) / Sean Monahan ($0.925m) / Jiri Hudler ($4.000m)
T.J. Galiardi ($2.000m) / Mikael Backlund ($1.500m) / David Jones ($4.000m)
Michael Ferland ($0.612m) / Joe Colborne ($1.500m) / Lance Bouma ($1.200m)
Corban Knight ($0.900m) / Brian McGrattan ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($7.500m) / Mark Giordano ($4.020m)
Kris Russell ($3.000m) / T.J. Brodie ($2.125m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / Dennis Wideman ($5.250m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Karri Ramo ($2.750m)
Reto Berra ($2.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,476,639; BONUSES: $4,417,083
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $3,823,361

Note: These are just an example. I doubt the Flames actually get 3 big-name UFAs but I think Feaster and Burke will try.

I think Galliardi and Backlund will also not be on next years roster opening up a spot for our top 5 pick and another prospect/UFA. I also wanna see O'brien jettisoned.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As a former FX trader all I can say is lol at the currency predictions (no one knows where it will be in a year - no one)

Indeed. The current futures curve has the Canadian dollar at approximately $0.93 in a year from now.

http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/CD.html

If anyone really had hard data that it would be <$0.90 in a year, they would be trading in currency futures and making millions/billions, not posting about it on a message board, or even writing research reports for a large bank. Basically, published predictions like that are a guess, by someone who has enough degrees and experience to sound smart.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Disingenuous? Is it or is it not predicted to drop into the $0.80's? I don't think we will see a $0.70 dollar for a long time but even a few cents on the dollar lost is a lot of money in the big picture. All I'm saying is that is that the value of the Canadian dollar plays a big role in league revenues. When the dollar drops so does the revenues of the Canadian teams which have led the league over the past decade.

Well yeah, but I think that's all any of us are saying. A few cents is a big difference, so saying 80's is a little sketchy, as that's a wide range. And it kinda also makes people think low eighties because we're talking about it going down.

I don't disagree with you that it'll probably be around 90 cents flat soon (six months). But as for 80's I really don't see it going below 88, 87, even in a few years time, which shouldn't be too much trouble for the league.

Course, I'm not a financial expert and I don't think you are either, so grain of salt and all that. Even the financial experts are often wrong, haha.

I have been pretty good predicting oil prices lately though.

[d_phaneuf]

this has it 1m higher

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...y-cap/3935911/

The cap is expected to be around $71 million with a floor of $55 million. The cap was at $64.3 million this season.

[TurnedTheCorner]

@DarrenDreger
Told the salary cap projection for 2014-2015 is $71.1 million.

7:05 PM - 9 Dec 13

[The Fonz]

I'd be absolutely okay with the Flames overpaying for Stastny/Callahan/Phaneuf this summer... as long as it's only on 2-4 year deals.

Which is unlikely.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I'd be absolutely okay with the Flames overpaying for Stastny/Callahan/Phaneuf this summer... as long as it's only on 2-4 year deals.

Which is unlikely.

I could see a few guys doing that, especially in the younger age range (mid-late 20's) get a 2-3 year deal and by the end of it cap might by 80+ and they get even more on a long term