I don't see the point in moving up the three spots it would take. You are getting at number 6 one of these players:
Lindholm (3rd overall Euro skater NHLE=40pts/82gp)
Monahan (3rd overall N.A. Forward NHLE=33p/82gp)
Nichushkin (2nd overall Euro skater NHLE=28p/82gp)
Nurse (2nd over N.A. Defender NHLE=15p/82 *NHLE doesn't really work the same for defenders, as in, it doesn't.)
Lindholm appears to have more offensive instincts, but Im not convinced any of Nurse/Lindholm/Monahan is a bad choice. And it won't cost us anything.
I don't see the point in moving up the three spots it would take. You are getting at number 6 one of these players:
Lindholm (3rd overall Euro skater NHLE=40pts/82gp)
Monahan (3rd overall N.A. Forward NHLE=33p/82gp)
Nichushkin (2nd overall Euro skater NHLE=28p/82gp)
Nurse (2nd over N.A. Defender NHLE=15p/82 *NHLE doesn't really work the same for defenders, as in, it doesn't.)
Lindholm appears to have more offensive instincts, but Im not convinced any of Nurse/Lindholm/Monahan is a bad choice. And it won't cost us anything.
Any of those 3 sounds great to me, thought eh Russian scares me. Nurse sounds awesome, Monahan sounds like what we need, and Lindholm sounds like something we need even more. Really can't go wrong here.
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"With a coach and a player, sometimes there's just so much respect there that it's boils over"
-Taylor Hall
Drafting is just one part of the equation; development is the other.
Calgary needs to give these guys the time and space to develop, to put them into a position to succeed. If that means a year or two in the minors, they need to do that rather than ruin a kid's confidence...
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I imagine that the Button brothers share a lot of information. If Craig has the Flames picking Monahan one has to think that as of now he's they player they will pick if they stay at 6.
The more I think about it, I'd like to see us try and trade the St. Louis and Pens firsts for the Oiler's first.
The thought of snagging Monahan - and - Lindholm would he huge.
Monahan / Lindhold and Backlund as our trio of centres moving forward (with Janowski potentially coming down the pipe in a few years ) would be a huge reversal of fortunes down the middle.
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This is the statement I disagree with. You are using the chart without recalibrating based on the standard talent distribution curve of the NHL vs the NFL. This is along the lines of the exampe of trying to draft 10 year olds with the same model but not as extreme.
Additionally it ignores that scouts statements that there is a top 4 that is better and a top 7-9 that is better with discrete drop offs between the groups. Since we know these things you cant just say it should only take a 3rd round pick based on this chart.
I will agree with you that in general establishing a drafte value ranking system is possible with calibration based on the curve for that particular sport which can be used to quickly evaluate a winner or overpayment. However your above statement is not supported by the model you are using.
I only posted that as a point of reference from another league (and stated as much). I never claimed that it should be the actual price in this case (nor would I).
I also explained, more than once, that those types of statistical references are line-of-best-fit guidelines. That means that data points rarely (and only coincidentally) actually fall on the line. Each data point has its own circumstances and facts that separate it - the line of best fit is merely the sum of least variables, it never claims to be a 'correct' number in any and all circumstances. And your drop-off after #4 is a good example of that in practice.
Also, similar to what opendoor said, a buyer would typically have to pay a premium, especially in the NHL where there are fewer transactions and thus the bid/ask spread, or buyer's premium can be more significant.
Monahan's shot is interesting to watch and seems unlike a lot of players. There seems to be very little unnecessary movement - most of his goals seem to be these little wrist shots with a short follow through - just seems to pick his spot and slide it in with ease.
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Last edited by Bunk; 05-01-2013 at 10:29 PM.
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The following table shows Monahan compared to every OHL first round pick from 1998-2008. Keeping in mind, he played on a very poor team with a minus -115 goal differential.
The more I think about it, I'd like to see us try and trade the St. Louis and Pens firsts for the Oiler's first.
The thought of snagging Monahan - and - Lindholm would he huge.
Monahan / Lindhold and Backlund as our trio of centres moving forward (with Janowski potentially coming down the pipe in a few years ) would be a huge reversal of fortunes down the middle.
I'd like to see us try and do that as well but do not see Edmonton making that trade.
The more I think about it, I'd like to see us try and trade the St. Louis and Pens firsts for the Oiler's first.
The thought of snagging Monahan - and - Lindholm would he huge.
Monahan / Lindhold and Backlund as our trio of centres moving forward (with Janowski potentially coming down the pipe in a few years ) would be a huge reversal of fortunes down the middle.
That seems like the opposite of what MacTavish said he wanted to do. He could change his mind but it seems doubtful he is trading what could be an impact player to the Flames for two picks that likely result in nothing and certainly don't help the team for the next two years.
I think if MacTavish moves that pick it is to try and move up or more likely to get a roster player.
Given the unlikely scenario where Nurse/Nichushkin go 4th/5th, it would be interesting to see the poll results after adding Barkov to the Lindholm/Monahan discussion.
Thinking about it a little bit more over the last couple of days, I actually wouldn't mind drafting Nurse either. Yes, we have issues with our centre prospects, but I think we have bigger issues on defence.
Next season we have Stajan, Backlund and Horak as our top 3 centres... not the best in the league, but definitely not horrible. Backlund and Stajan are both capable 2nd line guys and Horak has proven he belongs in the NHL. Both Horak and Backlund are young enough that you can expect they will take a step forward in the next few years. Plus we also have Jankowski, which is a wild card right now and whoever else we draft with our remaining 2 first round picks.
If our scouting staff feels that Nurse can be a franchise defenceman a la Weber and Lindholm/Monahan will just be decent centres a la Backlund/Stajan... then I would go with Nurse 10 times out of 10. We already have the decent, underwhelming centres... we don't have a franchise defenceman.
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