[GDT] Jays Series Thread - vs Red Sox April 30 - May 2

[KelVarnsen]

@
Rogers Centre

Tuesday Probable Starters
Jon Lester LHP (4-0) 2.27 ERA vs. Brandon Morrow RHP (0-2) 5.27 ERA
5:00 pm MST S-Net

Wenesday Probable Starters
Clay Buchholz RHP (5-0) 1.19 ERA vs. Mark Buehrle LHP (1-1) 6.35 ERA
5:00 pm MST S-Net

Thursday Probable Starters
Ryan Dempster RHP (1-2) 3.30 ERA vs. TBA
5:00 pm MST S-Net

[alan21]

Big series!
They really need to step up against a div rival after the 4 game sweep.

And before this I had no Idea Lester and Buchholz had such amazing numbers out of the gate.

[SuperMatt18]

Need a sweep here to get some momentum going.

[troutman]

Stats show Jays have just 0.6-per-cent shot of making playoffs


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...board/follows/

The website sportsclubstats.com, which uses an algorithm based on a team’s record and remaining schedule to calculate how teams will close out the season, computes that the Blue Jays have a 0.6 per cent shot at making the playoffs. The website’s findings show that the Red Sox have an 86-per-cent chance of making the playoffs, best in the American League.

According to data supplied by the Elias Sports Bureau in New York, over the last 30 years, only three teams that started the season at 9-17 or worse were able to rebound to make the postseason. Blue Jay fans will be heartened to know that Toronto was one of those teams.

Toronto will need to go 81-55 over the rest of the season to get to 90 wins, the number generally thought necessary to have a shot at the postseason. That’s a winning clip of .596. That’s not impossible, as according to Elias, since 2000, a total of 35 teams have played at .595 or better from May 1 through the end of the season.

[howard_the_duck]

I really have a hard time taking articles like that seriously at this time of year.

If the Jays go on a 5 game winning streak their playoff odds will go up substantially, so this far out I think calculating playoff odds is meaningless.

It will be an uphill climb no doubt, but not quite as gloomy as the media is making it out to be IMO.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I really have a hard time taking articles like that seriously at this time of year.

This is the problem:

Toronto will need to go 81-55

[howard_the_duck]

It's a hill to climb, no doubt. And playing .600 ball is a stretch given how they've performed so far.

I'm just not a huge fan of the playoff odds model this early in the year.

[flames_fan_down_under]

One team is very hot, one team is very cold. Some sports people say that the makings of a hot stretch is founded in a losing streak, lets hope the Jays can build some momentum.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

It will be an uphill climb no doubt, but not quite as gloomy as the media is making it out to be IMO.

Nor is it quite as rosey as the media made it out to be during the preseason/offseason.

It's a poorly constructed team.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

Nor is it quite as rosey as the media made it out to be during the preseason/offseason.

It's a poorly constructed team.

Certainly the lineup has been exposed. I still think we've yet to see it performing to its capability, but the lack of bench depth for sure has proven to be a big weakness. Also the 2b situation is a mess.

But I don't think going into the season this was AA's vision of a 'final product'. I think he thought they could definitely keep up at the very least and be in a position to add as we get closer to the deadline. On paper, the holes in this lineup are less obvious than most of their division rivals save for Baltimore (who IMO has the strongest lineup in the East).

Pitching has underperformed severely, but I do believe that will sort itself out if they can avoid injuries.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

But I don't think going into the season this was AA's vision of a 'final product'. I think he thought they could definitely keep up at the very least and be in a position to add as we get closer to the deadline. On paper, the holes in this lineup are less obvious than most of their division rivals save for Baltimore (who IMO has the strongest lineup in the East).

I think more or less this was AA's final vision for this season anyways. Add a RP, a bench player or a single upgrade for an everyday player during the season, sure, but this was by and large "it". The 2B position is a mess, but I think it's far from the top of list of major problems.

The Jays question marks were glossed over by media and fans in an effort to will this team into contention - IF they stay healthy (the team was a bandaid before and after the Marlins trade), IF Melky can produce sans 'roids, IF Bautista bounces back from injury, IF Lawrie bounces back from a terrible season, IF Gibbons does more than look like angry farmer John and squeeze more production, IF Rasmus can stop listening to his dad as a hitting coach for the whole season, etc.

I hope they turn things around just for the fact that watching the Jays again will be fun. But that's a lot of "ifs" on a team slapped together.

[KelVarnsen]

Yeah, the playoffs are more then likely out of reach but like Clever_Iggy said, if they can turn it around it will be to fun to watch.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

certainly the lineup has been exposed. I still think we've yet to see it performing to its capability, but the lack of bench depth for sure has proven to be a big weakness. Also the 2b situation is a mess.

But i don't think going into the season this was aa's vision of a 'final product'. I think he thought they could definitely keep up at the very least and be in a position to add as we get closer to the deadline. On paper, the holes in this lineup are less obvious than most of their division rivals save for baltimore (who imo has the strongest lineup in the east).

Pitching and hitting has underperformed severely in every single way, but i do believe that will sort itself out if they can avoid injuries.

fyp.

[Hockey]

Bases loaded nobody out.


This is huge.

[Machiavelli]

Dumb play by Salty...haha.

[The Big Chill]

Well, good start to this one.

[CofR]

Ortiz continues to hit well since coming off DL.

[Karl]

Wow! Just heard EE belted one into the 5th deck. Now 6-3 Jays.

[KelVarnsen]

EE!

I like the aspect Jack Morris brings.

[Machiavelli]

Something seems to go wrong every game. Cripes, guys.