Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Dorkmaster

Why take a guy that's declining? Because he's a Subban?

I think he meant 2nd/3rd round...?

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by FightinSioux

IMO yes. It's like drafting a staal all the boys have talent. It's in the family. The kid has potential....he was in the top 30 in December if I remember correctly

How's Jared Staal doing. Or Maxime Tanguay?

[Street Pharmacist]

The Centre list is quite telling which position is easiest to project.

In the top 5 of the drafts since 2000 20 centres were taken

Here's the list:

2012
3) Alex Galchenyuk

2011
1) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
3) Jonathan Huberdeau
5) Ryan Strome

2010
2) Tyler Seguin
4) Ryan Johansen

2009
1) John Tavares
3) Matt Duchene
4) Evander Kane
5) Braydon Schenn

2008
1) Steven Stamkos

2007
3) Kyle Turris

2006
2) Jordan Staal
3) Jonathan Toews
4) Nicklas Backstrom

2005
1) Sidney Crosby

2004
2) Evgeni Malkin

2003
2) Eric Staal

2002
None

2001
2) Jason Spezza
3) Alexander Svitov
4) Stephen Weiss

2000
None


I see at least 10 franchise players there. That's 10/22. Why not go with the center? You are likely to find good defencemen in unexpected places. You have one shot to change your franchise with the first pick. We need all positions, but the safest odds for a franchise changing player is the center. No questions in my mind.


McKinnon

[FightinSioux]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

How's Jared Staal doing. Or Maxime Tanguay?

Staal 2nd round. Tanguay 3rd.

Like I said in my post a second/third round pick if he's there. Grab the D prospect and hope he learns a little more training with PK

[Caged Great]

the only guy that completely busted of the 22 guys is Svitov. Everyone else is at least a solid 2nd/3rd liner at worst.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The point we are making is that Seth Jones may not be the BPA. History means everything. The Draft is essentially a gamble. Why wouldn't you want the best odds of winning it? I checked the top 5 picks in every draft since 2000. In total 19 defencemen chosen out of 60 picks.

Maybe. But if history means everything, lets look at our top 10 picks... Rico Fata, Daniel Tkaczuk, Dion Phaneuf, Eric Nystrom, and if you want to include 11th overall, Oleg Saprykin. Thats 3 (4) forwards and 1 defenseman. How are we doing there?

As for Seth Jones BPA... if MacKinnon/Druoin are better players, by all means, go with them. If Seth Jones is BPA, go with him. Thats all I'm saying, go BPA. The Flames have always said they go BPA, every other scout and GM always say they go BPA. Its a little weird seeing that people here are saying to draft by position rather then BPA. We have no idea what our team's needs are in 3 years, nor does anyone else... so thus, BPA.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

the only guy that completely busted of the 22 guys is Svitov. Everyone else is at least a solid 2nd/3rd liner at worst.

No doubt. Plenty of D busts. Jones may be a franchise player. McKinnon may be one too. Why not play the odds? We don't plan on top three picks every year like our special friends up north, so maximize your chances by taking the most likely player to turn around your franchise.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Maybe. But if history means everything, lets look at our top 10 picks... Rico Fata, Daniel Tkaczuk, Dion Phaneuf, Eric Nystrom, and if you want to include 11th overall, Oleg Saprykin. Thats 3 (4) forwards and 1 defenseman. How are we doing there?

As for Seth Jones BPA... if MacKinnon/Druoin are better players, by all means, go with them. If Seth Jones is BPA, go with him. Thats all I'm saying, go BPA. The Flames have always said they go BPA, every other scout and GM always say they go BPA. Its a little weird seeing that people here are saying to draft by position rather then BPA. We have no idea what our team's needs are in 3 years, nor does anyone else... so thus, BPA.

Which of those were centres?

[genetic_phreek]

I think Jones, MacKinnon, or Drouin you can't go wrong with either 3 but if we have 1st pick I say MacKinnon all day. We need a smart player but the one thing we've always lacked is a super speedster with hockey IQ. I'm sick of seeing us look like a bunch of slugs against everyone else.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Maybe. But if history means everything, lets look at our top 10 picks... Rico Fata, Daniel Tkaczuk, Dion Phaneuf, Eric Nystrom, and if you want to include 11th overall, Oleg Saprykin. Thats 3 (4) forwards and 1 defenseman. How are we doing there?

As for Seth Jones BPA... if MacKinnon/Druoin are better players, by all means, go with them. If Seth Jones is BPA, go with him. Thats all I'm saying, go BPA. The Flames have always said they go BPA, every other scout and GM always say they go BPA. Its a little weird seeing that people here are saying to draft by position rather then BPA. We have no idea what our team's needs are in 3 years, nor does anyone else... so thus, BPA.

Top 5 picks are much more likely to be impact players and the Flames previous drafting team was a horrible anomaly so not really a fair comparison, but I can see why you're jaded. I'm 33 and old enough to remember the young guns era, but wasn't nearly as invested in hockey at the time, so I'm less pessimistic.

I see your point about BPA, but you have to quantify BPA. Is it biggest impact on their team? Most likely to make an impact on their future team? Most likely to reach their projection? Best in their position? I do agree you don't draft based on the teams positional need, rather that if somewhat equal options are available, the center is always more likely to pan out, so pick the center.

BPA is not easily quantifiable. What if a goalie was the BPA? I think if you're going to quantify it you have to include position . A center has defensive responsibilities and is also key in puck possession. Defence is equally important, but the difference in the job for a defencemen in the CHL and the NHL is much different than a center. Therefore, in my mind, a center being good is much more likely to be reflective of their play later on.

Having said all that you would think the ISS would take that into account when predicting draft order and if Jone is that much better, then fine, draft Jones. I just don't want to see them mess up

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Which of those were centres?

Daniel Tkaczuk was. I think Eric Nystrom and Oleg Saprykin was drafted as C but converted to wing, but I could be wrong.

[bucksmasher]

Could we say that MacKinnon is the BPA for the Calgary Flames?

[Yoho]

We may never (and hopefully don't) finish this low again and have a chance to get the one positional player that can only be acquired thru drafting, ( a high end elite center.)

Please take Mackinnon Flames!

[kn]

That's a really good point about defining BPA as it can mean different things to different people.

To me, I think BPA is strictly in terms of upside, not in terms of current ability. If there is someone projected to be a future hall of famer, you draft him, and then move on to future perennial all-star, followed by players with productive careers, etc., etc.

So I think projection and upside is more important than safety. I'd rather go for the guy whose ceiling is unlimited than draft an unremarkable guy who might play 500 games.

If the Flames (big IF) see Jones as the next Pronger, then that seals it for me.

[kn]

One thing I was wondering is people are hung up on drafting a center but Drouin is listed as LW. However, I read that his natural position is center and was only moved to wing to play with MacKinnon.

That doesn't seem to be emphasized anywhere though. Drouin could be playing center by all accounts.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by kn

One thing I was wondering is people are hung up on drafting a center but Drouin is listed as LW. However, I read that his natural position is center and was only moved to wing to play with MacKinnon.

That doesn't seem to be emphasized anywhere though. Drouin could be playing center by all accounts.

Drouin plays like a winger though. Personally I am for BPA. But if they want a centre Barkov or Mackinnon is the best bet.

If we get the top pick Jones might be the safe pick. I am worried that Drouin and Mackinnon playing together skews the results. Barkov is a step down and probably has to serve another year of military. The rest jump up and down through the charts.

Jones has been top 3 forever and is one of the best d prospects in years. I prefer a C but Jones might be the smart pick.

[Teroy]

Originally Posted by kn

One thing I was wondering is people are hung up on drafting a center but Drouin is listed as LW. However, I read that his natural position is center and was only moved to wing to play with MacKinnon.

That doesn't seem to be emphasized anywhere though. Drouin could be playing center by all accounts.

If it's true that Drouin was moved to LW, why him to the wing and not MacKinnon? Was MacKinnon seen as the better Centre?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Maybe that could happen. Or maybe Seth Jones could be the next Chris Pronger and McKinnon the next Alex Daigle? History doesn't mean jack squat... always take BPA.

For those saying developing forwards is easier then D, I'd say the Flames have pumped out far more quality d-man then forwards (Phaneuf, Giordano, Montador, TJ Brodie ... and Regehr, Leopold who weren't drafted but developed by the Flames). If you compare to forwards, the best we have to show is (David Moss, Backlund, Prust, Lombardi, Nystrom)...

I agree take BPA where a clear BPA exists. In this case all report state all 3 are worthy of the number 1 pick. Then we need to look at probability of becoming a franchise player. Even Pronger didnt become a star for the team that drafted him.

Your second point actually supports drafting a forward. You can build good defnsemen out of later picks but getting top forwards is much more difficult.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by handgroen

now, i thanked your post and do agree with you that jones would be a blessing for the flames if the that's the way it comes out in the wash.
but honest question; if jones is the best defensive prospect in 10 years, why wasn't he the best defense-man on team usa? let alone the best in the whole tourny? Trouba was the best D-man on that team and if it's a matter of age with jones being a year younger, then shouldn't we consider that mackinnon is almost a full year younger than jones?

I think it a bit silly to expect a draft eligible player to be the best in the world at his position against players 1-2 years older than him. Serious question, has a draft eligible player EVER been the most impressive player at his position in the World Juniors? Not that I can recall. If he had outshone every defensemen in the World Juniors I think you'd expect him to be the best defensive prospect in 30 years.

Jones was really, really impressive for his age at the WJC. The USA had a very good defense and Trouba is a great prospect (perhaps should have been the highest defensemen taken last year ahead of Murray).

By "best defensive prospect in 10 years" people are talking about how good he'll be in the NHL 5 years from now. The fact he didn't outshine every single 18 and 19 year old in WJC doesn't change his future outlook.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by handgroen

Another thought regarding the notion that colorado may trade up in the draft to secure jones.
If everyone on this board (which is very polarized at this time) can agree that the flames can do no wrong with a top 4 pick. then why would colorado give up assets to get a particular player?

Well if you feel the top 3-5 guys are all great prospects who are fairly even then you can draft by organizational need. The Avs possess O'Reilly, Duchesne and Stastny at centre. Because they are so stacked with young centres they can attempt to secure a prospect who plays a position they aren't as deep in.

So the situation is different for Calgary vs Colorado. Calgary doesn't have a #1 C, a #1 W, or a #1 d-man. So any of the four top prospects would be fine for us. COL on the other hand doesn't need a #1 C as much as they need a #1 d-man.