Is that a missile in your pocket or wait its a missile

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Honestly, as bad as it sounds, I want NK to push things too far this time. They are one of the largest human rights violators in modern times, and it's time for the world to stop ignoring them. Best case scenario IMO would be for NK to launch some kind of non-nuclear attack, then the US moves in full force and topples their government as quickly as possible. The fact that the Kim-Jung family has been allowed to stay in power for this long is disgraceful

I kind of feel the same way. The fact that this regime has been allowed to oppress their own people for this long and the world has known all along, is disgraceful. People looked back at the Holocaust and proclaimed that they would have done something sooner if they had knows. Well NK has modern day concentration camps going on and a terrible human rights record. Someone has to do something.

However on other side of the fence l can understand why nothing is being done. They have nuclear capabilities. The loss of life from another Korean war would be catastrophic. But at some point, the world has to ask itself if it's worth letting 24 million people be oppressed by a few, so as not to ignite another conflict. The real travesty is how the NK people suffer, and for the most part have no clue how the rest of the world operates.

It's a tough situation. But I honestly think that in very short order, military action will be taken against the North. And sadly, its' going to be bloody and catastrophic for all involved.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Anonymous needs better writers and editors. Hacking all day does not improve your communcations and PR skills.

Its easy for you to call for citizens to rise up against the government when your not the one facing the guns and your thousands of miles away.

I respect some of the things that Anonymous has done in terms of going after Westboro and Scientology and a few other things.

but I don't have a lot of time or respect for a lot of drivel that they spout.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I kind of feel the same way. The fact that this regime has been allowed to oppress their own people for this long and the world has known all along, is disgraceful. People looked back at the Holocaust and proclaimed that they would have done something sooner if they had knows. Well NK has modern day concentration camps going on and a terrible human rights record.

However on other side of the fence l can understand why nothing is being done. They have nuclear capabilities. The loss of life from another Korean war would be catastrophic. But at some point, the world has to ask itself if it's worth letting 24 million people be oppressed by a few, so as not to ignite another conflict. The real travesty is how the NK people suffer, and for the most part have no clue how the rest of the world operates.

It's a tough situation. But I honestly think that in very short order, military action will be taken against the North. And sadly, its' going to be bloody and catastrophic for all involved.

The issue is not NK and their nukes. This issue is that China would step in if the West fires first. Or at least that was the case previously. Thus it creates a much larger conflict. If it were some random nation not in China or Russia's sphere of influence you can bet they would have had a regime change allready.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its easy for you to call for citizens to rise up against the government when your not the one facing the guns and your thousands of miles away.

I respect some of the things that Anonymous has done in terms of going after Westboro and Scientology and a few other things.

but I don't have a lot of time or respect for a lot of drivel that they spout.

Cap, do you see active military engagement soon in NK or SK? You might have a better understanding of things on account of your military service.

[CaptainCrunch]

I've been reading a lot about North Korean history and its government over the last few years. For some reason I find the whole situation there to be utterly facinating because the whole thing defies logic. but is also the worlds most perfect laboratory around control of a citizen population.

Lets first off all take the whole military rationality out of this. There's no way that North Korea wins in any scenario militarily and either they know it or they're delusional enough to believe that the Western World will back down militarily and politically if North Korea starts firing shots.

If North Korea drops a nuke, the world ends for that nation, they have to know that.

If North Korea repeats their actions where they sank a Frigate and shelled an island, well I think they've used up their good will and the world won't back down and open the aid spigots like they did last time.

Remember that Kim Jung Un was ascending when those attacks were ordered last time, and scuttlebutt is that the orders for those attacks came from him and not from his father Kim Jong Il. At the time it was theorized that he was consolidating power by allying with the military over their ISS which is considered to be infiltrated and influenced by China.

Now Kim Jung Un has taken his fathers and grandfathers playbook of threatening to get their way and to get money and aid but there's a problem.

Kim Jong-Il and his grandfather were probably the most savvy political operators that this world has seen. They were bold, they were rational in their own sense and they understood how far that they had to push and where they had to stop in order to get the world to listen to their demands in terms of getting the parties to the 6 nations table or to get food, fuel and currency into the North.

My theory is that Kim Jung Un was not ready to take on the mantle of leadership, he didn't have the years to mature and gain control of the various factions in the nation that his father did who learned at his fathers feet for decades. Because of that he's being influenced by family members and Generals and he's trying to placate all of them, and he's also impulsive and arrogant and spoiled and I don't think he's entirely rooted in reality like his father and grandfather.

He's also got an x-factor that his father never dealt with in the Chinese. Kim Jong-Il knew how to play the Chinese, his son I don't believe does.

Now he's trapped, the expected break point that his father used to know how to get to, well juniors driven right past it without getting anything so he's in uncharted territory.

He's got a hostile government to the South with powerful allies that he regards as a massive threat to his power and his government. But now he's got a power to the North that suddenly a threat to his power. If the Chinese come in to the Norths defense they will depose the government in place line up all of the senior members and shoot them and place a Chinese friendly government in its place.

He's effectively trapped with his bluster.

He might back down over the next couple of days. However he's now at the point that the worlds major powers now have their fingers on the literal hair trigger.

If he executes the next logical step which could be

1) A commando raid across the border
2) Take a shot at a naval unit
3) Shell a piece of South Korean territory
4) Make it look like he's preparing that missile to launch

He might trigger the apocalypse for North Korea that in a way he's trying to avoid.

Military on Military whether against China or SK the NK's aren't a monsterous threat, it will still be a hell of a slugging match but the edge in training and equipment goes heavily South or Chinese.

However in the initial stages of any shooting battle which would be North Korea vs Seoul,well the results would be in the manner of 10's of thousands of South Koreans dead in the first 10 minutes of a war. Don't misunderstand Kim Jung-Un like most dictatorial thugs in history don't really care about that, in fact sewing a little terror is a benefit to him.

He's doing this internally to establish his strength and conviction, he's doing this externally to get food and aid that his nation desperately needs.

This crisis in a lot of ways is a lot more intense then the standoffs in the past, and we're now sitting on a tightrope made out of piano wire.

Will we see a war? No, my gut tells me that we see a limited engagement battle in the next few days though.

Oh and one poster said that the Chinese Army massing on the border is to stop the flood of refugees. The Chinese are moving their heavy hitter formations to the border like the 190th mechanized brigade which is a balanced combination of advanced modern battletanks and APC's supported by administrative artillery formations. Units like this aren't made to be effective border patrols against Civilians. They're built as the first to front armored fist where their speed, mobility and firepower rip holes in an enemy formation and charged to rear to encircle enemy defenses. The Chinese are also working up their airforce heavily.

The Chinese have placed an invasion capable formation at the border. If this was about stopping refugees, the Chinese have entire regiments of dedicated border guards that they would use.

[Knut]

Maybe it is for the best for the Chinese to waltz in there and put in a Chinese friendly government. The people would be better off anyways. Would keep China's sphere of influence and keep the west out of it.

Edit: I mean better off than being under KJU's rule, not a democracy.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If he executes the next logical step which could be

1) A commando raid across the border
2) Take a shot at a naval unit
3) Shell a piece of South Korean territory
4) Make it look like he's preparing that missile to launch
5) Launch terrorist attack against the White House and take President Asher hostage.

Fyp.

[pylon]

Anonymous better be careful. They might make a wrong move that will be construed as US government hacking, and light the fuse. This isn't some job for 1337 haxxors IMHO. This isn't a Battlefield 3 hack, or an anti bullying slacktivision campaign. There is a lot more to the situation than a bunch of cyber-warriors may understand, even though they may think they are so super informed.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Hesla

Maybe it is for the best for the Chinese to waltz in there and put in a Chinese friendly government. The people would be better off anyways. Would keep China's sphere of influence and keep the west out of it.

Edit: I mean better off than being under KJU's rule, not a democracy.

I don't think many people would have a problem if the Chinese took over.

The US might not like it, but they would still sit back and let it happen.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Fyp.

Or do the world a favor and shoot Liam Hemsworth in the head as he does the slow heroic walkaway

[Daradon]

So Cap, just curious, guess you missed my post. Is the Chinese force there to be a show against the recent US build up, or is it for a possible sortie against NK? Or are the just flexing cause everyone in the area is flexing and they're obviously next door.

They're in a really weird situation.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Daradon

So Cap, just curious, guess you missed my post. Is the Chinese force there to be a show against the recent US build up, or is it for a possible sortie against NK? Or are the just flexing cause everyone in the area is flexing and they're obviously next door.

They're in a really weird situation.

The American's and Chinese have been talking at a high level through this crisis. China has come out publicly and blasted the NK government and Kim. Currently relations between NK could be classified as cold and hardly correct.

My guess is that the Chinese are doing this to pressure the NK government into backing down.

However that doesn't mean that the Chinese would back off if the SK and Americans went after NK. There are too many benefits for China in having control over that country. Its one of the richest sources of strategic minerals in the world, there are open water ports that the Chinese Navy can use to exert control over the sea of Japan and the China sea. Plus if they did decide to install a puppet government in North Korea the first thing that they would do is re-arm it and retrain their troops so the South Koreans would suddenly be faced with a strong modern army.

If China who is rapidly building up their navy and submarine forces and increasing the production of amphibious assault ships decided to ever make their move on Taiwan or the resource rich islands, if they had control of North Korean ports they would be able to exert tremendous pressure on Japan, make it very tough for Americans to bring their navy and air assets to bear due to China owning that entire ocean area.

They could right now invade North Korea take out the government, decommission the nuclear program and flood NK with food and medicine on T.V., normalize relations with South Korea in terms of trade and they would be on the side of angels, they would also claim ownership over the Asiatic Waterways and be able to put a modern well armed million man army on the ground staffed by Koreans in North Korea.

If you play that scenario, China can't lose in any way and American resolve would only go so far and they would lose the ability to project force to one of the most important areas of the world.

China to me is going to be looking for a reason to go.

[Duruss]

There is another reason the war could be good for China. A number of years ago a study came out detailing some of the issues and then possible actions China and India could take due to having too many men. One of those solutions was war.

Below is a recent article from CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/14/opinio...e-child-brooks

However I think CaptainCrunch has the best reasoned approach to this. Though I do think that Kim Jung Un will do something so that he doesn't end up looking like a paper tiger.

Is it not possible that the missile system they just moved is an attempt to bait a raid? If a raid happened it could open up more avenues of action for North Korea?

[CaptainCrunch]

It would have to be far more then a raid and precisely timed. If they were going to raid, they'd have to do a massive air and naval attack on the NK artillary bands along the DMZ, and that's still no guarantee that Seoul would be saved.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Hesla

Maybe it is for the best for the Chinese to waltz in there and put in a Chinese friendly government. The people would be better off anyways. Would keep China's sphere of influence and keep the west out of it.

Edit: I mean better off than being under KJU's rule, not a democracy.

They would be better off under Chinese rule for sure - simply because the Chinese are invested in not wanting a refugee crisis to impact them.

Democracy though... If the USA was to go in there, and remove the government, do people believe North Koreans would be free? Would have a democracy? They would install another version of government that is USA friendly and would support their influence in the area, but the people would never know democracy.

Ask the people in Chile how Pinochet was ushered in. Ask the people of Iran why their democratically elected government was removed and replaced with something else...Ask basically all of South America why their elected governments were deposed in favour of dictators.

USA cries "Socialists!!!" whenever a country tries to take control of their resources. People in North America are brought up to think socialism = communism, and that it is evil. Socialism is the 'opposite' of democracy. Well, what about Democratic Socialism? Is that evil? To me, Communism = Pure Capitalism. Neither has much to do with democracy, and they both end up putting a lot of money into the hands of the few, while taking advantage of whomever they can. They are opposite sides of the same coin, and neither is 'better' than the other. I know most don't view it as such. I was brought up to 'love' capitalism. I was brought up to hate communism, which was right.. but school taught me that socialism is evil, and encompasses communism. Is this why you hate it?

I feel for the people of North Korea. China is the only country at the moment that can do something, in my opinion, without destroying millions of innocent lives. South Korea and the rest of the world have to be ready with massive relief efforts.

However, North Korea is a poor country. There is not much incentive to do anything, other than 'contain the situation'. China doesn't want to deal with it - why should they? North Korea has always been an ace in their pocket. USA doesn't want that situation resolved. The only people that want it resolved are the North Koreans, and they are too weak now to help themselves, and the rest of the world really doesn't care about them.

Sorry.. I just felt like babbling on tonight.. carry on.

[CaptainCrunch]

I disagree with a few of your points respectfully.

The Chinese don't exactly have a Stirling Record in terms on Human Rights with their own people and the Chinese MSS Internal security department is well known for its brutality. If hypothetically China went into North Korea to establish a new government the MSS would be unleashed on the people there looking for possible dissident hot spots.

In terms of people wanting change in North Korea, I'm not sure if that's necessarily true the indoctrination is scientifically applied and ruthless and completely efficient. The Kims are incredibly powerfully in North Korea among the people, there's not a revolution boiling and waiting to happen. North Korean's go to bed at night hungry but secure in their knowledge that everywhere else in the world is worse. They are taught from the crib to distrust and hate the outside world and to trust no one but the word of Kim.

Wich ever way this goes the civilian population loses.

[SebC]

China isn't communist. They may call themselves communist but really they are fascist.

[Ozy_Flame]

Don't think the North Koreans would let the Chinese walk in an install a Chinese government. That is much too precarious along ethnic lines and serves as another example of East Asian Imperialism, only this time it's coming from the mainland and not from the Japanese. Conversely, the US would most definitely not be welcome to install a puppet regime, and would see a power vaccuum created very quickly in Pyongyang with that unless the South is prepared to dedicate a tremendous amount of resources to safeguard against civil war.

Either way you look at it, if Pyongyang falls, it's going to be a political mess for years afterwards.

Then there's the millions of juche-brainwashed North Koreans who would have depression and vengenace on the brain for years to come. That would be the great challenge IMO - convincing an entire country that have been conditioned to follow the "Great Leader" to suddenly convert and trust outside forces where murals of their destruction are posted everywhere.

[Bigtime]

Well if it does come to blows I hope the Ryugyong tower in Pyongyang gets spared, it's actually starting to grow on me with its glazing now:


Tramway Passing In Front Of Ryugyong Hotel, Pyongyang, North Korea by Eric Lafforgue, on Flickr

[Nage Waza]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Don't think the North Koreans would let the Chinese walk in an install a Chinese government. That is much too precarious along ethnic lines and serves as another example of East Asian Imperialism, only this time it's coming from the mainland and not from the Japanese. Conversely, the US would most definitely not be welcome to install a puppet regime, and would see a power vaccuum created very quickly in Pyongyang with that unless the South is prepared to dedicate a tremendous amount of resources to safeguard against civil war.

Either way you look at it, if Pyongyang falls, it's going to be a political mess for years afterwards.

Then there's the millions of juche-brainwashed North Koreans who would have depression and vengenace on the brain for years to come. That would be the great challenge IMO - convincing an entire country that have been conditioned to follow the "Great Leader" to suddenly convert and trust outside forces where murals of their destruction are posted everywhere.

The minds of the masses seems to be the hardest part in all this, it clearly doesn't work in the middle east either. Until people stop brainwashing children there doesn't seem to be a good way out of any of this.