The Drive for 30th

[djsFlames]

I 100% think they need to use their 1st pick on the potential franchise center (MacKinnon, Barkov), the 2nd pick on a big, scoring RW like Mantha, and the 3rd pick on a d-man with top line potential.

That way we're not putting all our eggs into one positional "basket". Plant some seeds in different areas of need and see which turn out.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by moon

I personally don't but from what I remember I am pretty sure FDW is very high on Jones and does think he has that potential.

I think he said best defensive prospect he has seen in 18 years following draft.

i only watched jones during the WJC, and he looked like the kind of dman that can control the pace of a game.

however, i'm still biased on getting forwards with lottery picks, unless our prospect pool is already well stocked in that regard.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by fotze

I don't follow NFL much at all but it seems those teams can turn around their fortunes much quicker than the NHL. Not sure why though.

Largely just a perception. The shortness of the NFL season allows for more statistical variation - over an 82 game season hockey players (and teams) almost always regress to their mean. The same is true over 82 NFL games, but within a single season it's not at all unusual to find a team who significantly outperforms their pythagorean projection, or who goes 5-0 in one-touchdown games (the NHL equivalent would be something like going 20-5 in one-goal-games). This effect also carries over into their short, 'one-and-done' playoffs.

If you look at long periods of time in the NFL you see similar performance patterns emerge as with the other major sports. A small number of teams enjoying sustained success, a large number of teams with variable success, and a few teams with very poor performances.

In the NFL, in the last 10 years, Indianapolis, New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have 38 combined playoff appearances. Over the same period of time, the following teams combine for 33 appearances: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis, Cleveland, Miami, Oakland, Houston, and Detroit.

The "big five" have 10 Superbowl appearances and 6 wins. The "little" 16 have 5 appearances and 1 win.

Buffalo has not played in the playoffs in ten years. The longest active NHL drought is the Leafs at 7 years.

Edit: Those NFL stats I grabbed from a Ravens forum and they are from before the last Superbowl.

[BigJim]

Sorry for putting this here, but don't think a thread is warranted...but, is a player allowed to be placed on waivers after the trade deadline but before the end of the regular season? I'm asking because I'm wondering if they sign any college guys who need or require to burn off a year of their ELCs (as incentive to sign here), they would need a roster spot to play. Thanks!

[Bourque's Twin]

If the Flames win the draft lottery and pick first, who do you think they will take?
I think management has struggled without that elusive #1 C for a long time so MacKinnon will be appealing. But, Drouin might be a better player.
How do you not take Seth Jones when he's the best player in the draft and could make the blueline rock solid for a long time?

[StrykerSteve]

Mackinnon all day, every day.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

If the Flames win the draft lottery and pick first, who do you think they will take?
I think management has struggled without that elusive #1 C for a long time so MacKinnon will be appealing. But, Drouin might be a better player.
How do you not take Seth Jones when he's the best player in the draft and could make the blueline rock solid for a long time?

I like Jones but i am not sure the flames could market him to flames fans like they could with a MacKinnon or Drouin. Jones will probably take longer to make the NHL and i'm not quite sold that he would stay in Calgary when his option is up to leave.

[HelloHockeyFans]

If the Flames get the 1st overall, I'd like to see them move the pick to the team holding the 2nd overall to get that pick plus hopefully an additional 1st. I think the Flames would have to pick Jones with the first pick, but I'd much rather they pick a center. Calgary needs a number 1 center badly.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

I like Jones but i am not sure the flames could market him to flames fans like they could with a MacKinnon or Drouin. Jones will probably take longer to make the NHL and i'm not quite sold that he would stay in Calgary when his option is up to leave.

Aside from the normal risk of drafting a defenceman that high, these two factors can't be overlooked. Flames brass want a fast turnaround. Even top-flight defencemen typically take years to round into form. Pronger wasn't really a game-changing defenceman until about his fifth season in the league. MacKinnon and Drouin project to be difference-makers much sooner. Then there's the long-term prospects of signing Jones. Even if he turns into the player many say he will be, the Flames could very well only get a few good seasons out of him.

You gotta go with MacKinnon if he's available. The real tough choice is between Drouin or Barkov if the Flames pick third.

[Flashpoint]

It sure would be nice if the NHL rewarded trying to win but failing, rather than trying to lose.

For example - you are incentivised to be the worst team in the league. On the last day of the season, you'd rather be 30th, than 17th.

Wouldn't it be nice if (and you can keep the lottery to add uncertainty) the team that JUST missed the playoffs had the #1 spot, and the last placed had the #14 pick (then followed by the playoff teams in the current order)?

So the teams outside the playoffs are always striving to beat their opponents, rather than pack it in as quickly as possible.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

It sure would be nice if the NHL rewarded trying to win but failing, rather than trying to lose.

For example - you are incentivised to be the worst team in the league. On the last day of the season, you'd rather be 30th, than 17th.

Wouldn't it be nice if (and you can keep the lottery to add uncertainty) the team that JUST missed the playoffs had the #1 spot, and the last placed had the #14 pick (then followed by the playoff teams in the current order)?

So the teams outside the playoffs are always striving to beat their opponents, rather than pack it in as quickly as possible.

The parity in the NHL ensure that all but the worst couple of teams try make the playoffs for 95% of the year. Preventing the worst teams in the league from getting the best picks would simply prevent them from ever becoming competitive. If they fail to become competitive after drafting high a few years, they end up losing these players via free agency to teams that are competitive. As such, I think your looking for a solution to a problem that doesn't really exist outside of the 4 or 5 worst teams in the NHL in any given year, and those teams would likely have the same problem regardless of the resulting draft pick order. The players don't play for draft picks after all, they play to win the Stanley Cup. As such, the order of the resulting draft picks won't change the effort of a team that's out of the playoff hunt one bit.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

You gotta go with MacKinnon if he's available. The real tough choice is between Drouin or Barkov if the Flames pick third.

If the Panthers and Avs are picking in front of us, MacKinnon could still be on the board at 3rd. I could see both teams wanting Jones and/or Drouin.

Given the chance (I feel) the Flames have to go after MacKinnon, regardless of whether Jones or Drouin are available.

If we pick up Drouin we could end up with another era of having an elite winger with no center to play with. Everyone in the Flames nation is tired of that story.
If we pick Jones we could end up with a lot of people drawing parallels to Phaneuf, which will only become worse and worse if Jones doesn't prove to be a franchise Dman in his rookie year. We already used our previous best draft pick on a Dman and it really didn't turn out.

The smart move for the Flames is to finally answer franchise center question.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

It sure would be nice if the NHL rewarded trying to win but failing, rather than trying to lose.

For example - you are incentivised to be the worst team in the league. On the last day of the season, you'd rather be 30th, than 17th.

Wouldn't it be nice if (and you can keep the lottery to add uncertainty) the team that JUST missed the playoffs had the #1 spot, and the last placed had the #14 pick (then followed by the playoff teams in the current order)?

So the teams outside the playoffs are always striving to beat their opponents, rather than pack it in as quickly as possible.

I think the closest way to that that still doesn't kill teams like Florida, Columbus and NYI is to use the NBA lottery system where there seems to be a lot more movement and teams not finishing last winning the lottery.

Still rewards the bad teams but doesn't give a ton of incentive for being completely pathetic.

[Yoho]

Tampa with big 2 points tonight, to stay 4 points now clear of the flames. Starting to see the bottom three separating from the pack a bit.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Tampa with big 2 points tonight, to stay 4 points now clear of the flames. Starting to see the bottom three separating from the pack a bit.

We're The Bomb.

Or fans of The Bomb

Cowperson

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

We're The Bomb.

Or fans of The Bomb

Cowperson

Just out of curiosity what do you expect to see every time you come to this thread, and bash people that take an interest in seeing the Flames get the highest pick possible, in a season that is more than flushed down the toilet.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Championship teams have one thing in common - elite players.

I do lean more towards MacKinnon right now. Not so much because of his skill level, but the over-all package you get with him. He has "Captain" written all over him with that non-stop motor and 2-way play, coupled with elite skills. Drouin is more 'elite' in terms of skill, I would say. Barkov is good at everything, period. Jones looks to be like the best D prospect in a long time, and high-end D are on the ice for sometimes 30 minutes per game.

I may have my own preferences... but I trust the Flames scouting department to select who out of all of them will become the most elite. If that means they take Jones, then I will support that.

People keep arguing that you need depth down the middle (Pittsburgh) or an elite d-man (the Edmonton run). I argue that you just need elite talent out there. If your team has better players out on the ice more often than the other team has, then you have a very good chance to win the game. Add in good coaching and systems play, and you can maximize your talent potential as much as possible.

I do expect the Flames to draft MacKinnon 1st, or Drouin/Barkov if they pick lower. I will not be mad if they draft Jones though. I would say all 4 prospects look like they will be 'elite' players down the line, and Nichushkin being the gamble, and Monahan looking like a 'sure thing' to be a high-end impact player.

There will be more elite talent on the bottom of the first round and into the 2nd round - just really hard to find. This draft is a good one, and those scouts better be working some massive overtime

[metroneck]

My concern with MacKinnon is size. He needs to add about 25lbs to be at the bottom end of proto work-horse centre sizing.

Yes he is still young, but does his frame type suit adding that weight?

Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but I think I'd rather a little less top end skill for a bit more size.

[$ven27]

He's 6'0 and around 185 pounds, that's not too bad for an 18 year old.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by $ven27

He's 6'0 and around 185 pounds, that's not too bad for an 18 year old.

Here is someone with similar size


Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nugent-Hopkins in 2010 during his time with the Red Deer Rebels.BornApril 12, 1993 (age 19)
Burnaby, BC, CANHeight6 ft 1 in (1.85 m)Weight185 lb (84 kg; 13 st 3 lb)