Gillis claims to have a deal for Luongo...kind of

[MissTeeks]

Interesting:

Mark Spector Sports‏@SportsnetSpec25m
In the end, Luongo deal falls through because Toronto wanted Vancouver to keep some of his salary. VAN refused to do so.

Mark Spector Sports‏@SportsnetSpec24m
Leafs would have parted with the 2nd and 3rd picks, plus Scrivens. But when VAN wouldn't share some salary, Nonis backed off of deal.

[AR_Six]

I think they will have to buy him out, or trade him for Komisarek straight up.

Then use the compliance buyouts on Booth and Komisarek, while keeping Ballard. That would save face for the GM, as he didn't give up much for Booth (compared to Ballard), and would get them barely under the cap. Vancouver oweners will still easily turn a profit with those two buyouts on the books

Dumbest analysis I've ever seen on this issue. Bar none. Can you guys at least approach realism?

Ballard won't be on the team. If they can find someone to take him for a bag of pucks, they will, otherwise he will be bought out.

Luongo will not be bought out or traded for anyone with any cap hit. If you hung a sign around his neck saying "available for 3rd round pick" he'd be gone in 20 minutes. Typically, players with big contracts get moved at the draft. The same will happen this year. And it's been said this was going to happen ever since he wasn't moved at the beginning of the season. The draft has always been the most likely place.

Booth will probably not be bought out as he's an incredibly useful player who happens to be about $1M overpaid. You don't buy out a useful player for having a cap hit a million bucks too high. The only way this happens is if they're trying to replace him with Roy, and Roy will likely cost mid-5's, so that's probably not in the cards.

Next season's lineup for Van will look something like,

Sedin 6.1 Sedin 6.1 Burrows 4.5
Booth 4.25 Kesler 5.0 Higgins 2.5
3rd Liner 2.5 Schroeder 1.0 Hansen 1.35
Kassian 0.8 4th liner 1.0 4th liner .6
Extra forward .6


Edler 5.0 Garrison 4.6
Bieksa 4.6 Hamhuis 4.5
Tanev 1.7 6th D 1.0
7th D 0.7

Schneider 4.0 / Backup 0.6

There's still some cap space there so that third liner could be Raymond for 3M or so, but I suspect he'll sign elsewhere for more.

[neo45]

You say my analysis is the worst ever, then go on to post a worse lineup. At least I adressed the third line center issue, which is the biggest one for the team. The lineup you posted is one injury away, to either a defenseman OR forward, from completely ruining the team.

It even says on this page that Toronto wouldn't do 2nd + 3rd + Scrivens, which is a bare bones package, without Van retaining salary (which they can't do). So no, it's not clear that a team is willing to take Luongo's contract for free, the team that wants him the most just refused to do so

[AR_Six]

Apparently they didn't really want him and were fine with Reimer going forward. That's cool, good for those guys, someone else may need a goalie at the draft.

I'm telling you that that is what is going to happen. I don't care whether you think the lineup is worse (it's not), your "they'll buy out Luongo or trade him for Komisarek lol" prediction is just plain dumb.

Also it's not an injury away from a problem. An injury to a top 4 defenseman means Tanev moves up, where he's played a fair bit this season (Bieksa was injured for a number of games, and even at full strength Tanev has played with Edler on occasion). As far as the forwards, Van has pretty good winger depth, guys who can move around in the lineup. Centre is a problem, but that's true of many teams; if you lose one of your top 2 centres you're going to have some issues.

[neo45]

Still, they can't afford to keep Luongo, trade him with any salary coming back, or retain any of his salary. They literally can't do that and still get under the cap next year. It really limits their options and returns to the point where they might have to buy Luongo out, or buy out whatever salary they have to take back for him. Komisarek was just an example

[d_phaneuf]

I've said a few times they are waiting until the summer

these long time contracts have mostly been traded at the draft, also more teams will be looking for goalies or buyout their own goalies

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by neo45

Still, they can't afford to keep Luongo, trade him with any salary coming back, or retain any of his salary. They literally can't do that and still get under the cap next year. It really limits their options and returns to the point where they might have to buy Luongo out, or buy out whatever salary they have to take back for him. Komisarek was just an example

And this remains nonsense because you don't do it unless you can't dump the player for a 7th round pick. If you don't think they could get even that for him at the draft, I say you're delusional.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

And this remains nonsense because you don't do it unless you can't dump the player for a 7th round pick. If you don't think they could get even that for him at the draft, I say you're delusional.

You can't dunno him for a 7th workout anything coming back. Not gonna happen

[neo45]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

And this remains nonsense because you don't do it unless you can't dump the player for a 7th round pick. If you don't think they could get even that for him at the draft, I say you're delusional.

Well the richest team in the league just determined his contract to be too expensive for them, so maybe I'm not delusional. Things could change by the draft, but if Reimer plays well I think the Canucks need to get very worried.

If Reimer plays poorly this situation probably works itself out

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by neo45

Well the richest team in the league just determined his contract to be too expensive for them, so maybe I'm not delusional. Things could change by the draft, but if Reimer plays well I think the Canucks need to get very worried.

If Reimer plays poorly this situation probably works itself out

There are other teams in the league besides Toronto. The deal isn't prohibitively expensive, it costs 6.7M per season, which is about the same as Bryz, Rinne, Ward, Lundqvist; It's not like they have to shell out $10M per season for the guy and there are plenty of pricier players out there. The cap hit is actually a boon next year; 5.3 is lower than comparable netminders (he's 10th in the league in cap hit among goalies next year). The dollars aren't the problem, it's whether you want him on your team when he's 40.

Personally I'm getting to a point where I think they should just trade Schneider and sleep in the bed they made with the Luongo deal. Schneider has to be worth some significant assets at this point - he's been top 10 in GAA and sv% the last two years and last year he was top 3. He's only 26. If he plays reasonably well in the 1 or 2 rounds of playoff action I expect Vancouver will see this year, he's gotta be worth a top 10 pick or a blue chip prospect, and perhaps a roster player to boot.

[ArbourLake]

So with all that cap space freed up by trading away Iginla and Bouwmeester and the retirement of Kiprusoff coming anytime on or after July 1, should the Calgary Flames make an offer to the Vancouver Canucks to get Roberto Luongo? I can see the good and the bad in such a move. The main reason why I would like this is we need some character guys playing for the Flames again.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by ArbourLake

So with all that cap space freed up by trading away Iginla and Bouwmeester and the retirement of Kiprusoff coming anytime on or after July 1, should the Calgary Flames make an offer to the Vancouver Canucks to get Roberto Luongo?

I can see the good and the bad in such a move. The main reason why I would like this is we need some character guys playing for the Flames again.

No Thanks, IMO Flames would have no use for a Contract of that magnitude.

[Jbo]

Why would we take that contract on for 9 more years? And give away draft picks?

No thanks.

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by ArbourLake

So with all that cap space freed up by trading away Iginla and Bouwmeester and the retirement of Kiprusoff coming anytime on or after July 1, should the Calgary Flames make an offer to the Vancouver Canucks to get Roberto Luongo? I can see the good and the bad in such a move. The main reason why I would like this is we need some character guys playing for the Flames again.

No. First he wouldn't accept a trade here. Second what would be the point? They're not going to contend just with a goalie, Kiprusoff didn't do it, Luongo won't either. So why bother trading futures for a keeper, just so the team can finish in 11th?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

No. First he wouldn't accept a trade here. Second what would be the point? They're not going to contend just with a goalie, Kiprusoff didn't do it, Luongo won't either. So why bother trading futures for a keeper, just so the team can finish in 11th?

Maybe not, but he is a lot more likely to do so now than any other time....he is one frustrated guy and his remarks yesterday suggest that he would probably go anywhere he was able to right now.

Beyond that though...the Flames wouldnt even think of adding such a ridiculous contract moving forward,

[Senator Clay Davis]

Gillis is a terrible GM without a doubt, and refusing to pay for some of Luongo's contract shows that. The return is going to suck no matter what, but Gillis has talked himself into believing he can get actual value for Luongo rather than accepting nothing but middling prospects or picks. So rather than bite the bullet and eat some salary to get rid of the distraction, he needs to be right on this one. Makes sense when almost everything else he's done has been terrible.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Gillis is a terrible GM without a doubt, and refusing to pay for some of Luongo's contract shows that. The return is going to suck no matter what, but Gillis has talked himself into believing he can get actual value for Luongo rather than accepting nothing but middling prospects or picks. So rather than bite the bullet and eat some salary to get rid of the distraction, he needs to be right on this one. Makes sense when almost everything else he's done has been terrible.

Gillis isn't in control of the purse strings, Aquilini is.

If the Flames weren't willing to eat part of Kotalik's deal, why would Aquilini eat a massive portion of Luigi's?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Somewhat different situations, Kotalik wasn't a massive distraction. Sometimes money isn't as valuable as peace of mind (ask Luongo that). I mean with Luongo still there, if Corey Schneider bombs in the playoffs, you have a total catastrophe on your hands. Which of course we're all rooting for.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

I've said a few times they are waiting until the summer

these long time contracts have mostly been traded at the draft, also more teams will be looking for goalies or buyout their own goalies

Yeah these long contract have been traded at the draft but you forget the Richards and Carters were a lot younger. Luongo turns 34 today. His skillset is only going to diminish going forward. Between his age, the cap going down, and GM's knowing Gillis needs to make a move, the Canucks will have to take salary back if they want anything of value. To move that whole contract the Canucks will have to entice a team to take it.

[Flash Walken]

I'm not really sure how rich I would have to be to not care about playing a goalie upwards of 10-15 million dollars or more to play for another team.

I would imagine it would have to be on the orders of magnitude greater than Aquilini is.

These owners might be billionaires, but this is still tens of millions dollars we're talking about.

If Gillis is going to have to buy out Booth and Ballard already, I can't imagine Francesco is too thrilled about paying out 63 million for a hockey roster and then another 15 million for other teams to have better rosters.