The Drive for 30th

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

MacKinnon sounds a little like Parise.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Except that Parise is a winger.

That is probably a really good comparison - elite skater, 1st line offensive talent (as opposed to elite offensive numbers), most tenacious player on the ice, and thus, likely an excellent leader. And he's a C.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Oh that's definitely what has happened on Drouin's end, no doubt.

Nate, however, is no longer producing at the rate he was before. This is what I'm curious about.

I am more concerned with what NHL tools they have, not how dominant they were in junior

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Not sure if this has been posted yet in this thread (probably has but I'll repost it anyways), finishing 30th this year isn't all that its cracked up to be... or at least it isn't like it was in previous years.

2013 NHL Draft Lottery :

For this year's NHL draft, the NHL made a change to the process. Now, all non-playoff teams are eligible to win the draft lottery and select first overall.

In the past, if a team won the lottery, they were only eligible to move up four slots.

30th place - 25.0%
29th place - 18.8%
28th place - 14.2%
27th place - 10.7%
26th place - 8.1%
25th place - 6.2%
24th place - 4.7%
23rd place - 3.6%
22nd place - 2.7%
21st place - 2.1%
20th place - 1.5%
19th place - 1.1%
18th place - 0.8%
17th place - 0.5%

So, for this year, finishing dead last in the league isn't the advantage that it used to be when it comes to picking first in the lottery.

Yes it's been mentioned before. I'm not sure why those who are bringing it up keep bringing it up in regards to finishing last though. If we finish last we have a 100% chance at a top 2 pick and thus are guaranteed to have our choice of 3 really good players. So it's a no lose scenario as far as I'm concerned. We finish last and we're guaranteed a great prospect.

This is actually far more relevant to us if we finish 4th or 5th last because the chance of getting bumped down to 5th/6th is now much higher than it used to be and could push us out of the top tier of prospects. There will still be some awesome prospects available but I prefer the look of the top 4 guys.

[868904]

From the limited viewing of Drouin, what I like, other than his obvious skill, is his determination for the puck, he wants it, he battles for it, and we he gets it, he wants to score. We've had so many quitters on the Flames in recent years, that'd Im really high on determination and character in our prospects.

Again frm the limited viewing, He really reminds me of Peter Forsberg. I think it was noted that this is his first year playing the wing and prior to this, he played centre. I wonder if it would be that big an adjustment for him to move back?

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Really?! I thought Koivu was the winger on his line!

But seriously, I've watched Minnesota a lot this year and I love Parise. A center version of that would be well worth a pick. I think people sometimes set their sights too high with regard to prospects - you want a character first-line player, you don't go in expecting a slam-dunk hall of famer.

For a first overall pick, generally yes you do.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by fleury

For a first overall pick, generally yes you do.

If there's a Crosby in this draft, please point me to him.

[byronkentgraham]

If we get 1st overall we take Jones. He is the best player in the draft with the most potential. We already have a small skilled left winger in baertschi. Getting mackinnon would be awesome, but taking the 3rd best player with a 1st overall can not be an option for this team.

[Enoch Root]

Put this in the wrong thread before....

Here are the odds of draft placement, depending on where the Flames finish (I only went to 6th because everything after that is obvious). On the left is where they finish and the columns show the odds of a given pick:

Place....1st.....2nd.....3rd.....4th.....5th.....6 th........7th
30th....25.0....75.0
29th....18.8....25.0....56.2
28th....14.2..............43.8....42.0
27th....10.7........................58.0....31.3
26th......8.1..................................68. 7....23.2
25th......6.2..................................... .......76.8.....17.0

So for instance, if they finish 28th, they have a 14% chance at the 1st pick, a 44% chance at the 3rd pick, and a 42% chance at the 4th pick

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by fleury

For a first overall pick, generally yes you do.

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

If there's a Crosby in this draft, please point me to him.

Yeah, exactly. It's a year-by-year, draft-by-draft judgement.

You should get a first line player or top pairing blueliner out of it but you're not always going to get a future Hall of Fame guy.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Yeah, exactly. It's a year-by-year, draft-by-draft judgement.

You should get a first line player or top pairing blueliner out of it but you're not always going to get a future Hall of Fame guy.

Anything more than a top 4 defender or a top 6 winger out of the draft is gravy.

If you can consistently draft quality depth players with your 1st-3rd round picks, you're laughing.

Backlund's a good example. If that guy turns into a second line centre, he's met the standard for a 15-30 pick.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Anything more than a top 4 defender or a top 6 winger out of the draft is gravy.

If you can consistently draft quality depth players with your 1st-3rd round picks, you're laughing.

Backlund's a good example. If that guy turns into a second line centre, he's met the standard for a 15-30 pick.

Yup.

I was talking about the first overall though.

[PeteMoss]

MacKinnon worries me in that Rico Fata way of a guy who was supposed to be number 1 forever and then starts falling. I'd take the guy with 30 more points in 5 more games even though he plays wing. Can't let our inability to find centres force a situation in the draft when you're not picking the best player to find a centre.

[PeteMoss]

Drouin with 6 points yesterday in the Halifax playoff game. MacKinnon with 4... (Fryk with 8)... appears to be a bit of a mismatch.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

MacKinnon has elite skating. Like as good as anyone at that age pretty much. He's also very competitive and tenacious in puck pursuit. Very good wrist shot it looks like.

Let's face it he's not the elite offensive talent that Crosby or Stamkos is, those are two generational players. So we shouldn't expect he'll be a league leader in goals or points, that would be an unrealistic expectation.

What you can probably expect is that MacKinnon will be an elite two-way centre with explosive, breakaway type speed. Good offensive skills and great competitiveness. That is still a very attractive package and I'm struggling to come up with a good comparable in the NHL in style.

Drouin has higher offensive skills IMO.

Patrick Marleau?

[89revival]

Anyone cheering for wins at this point is a moron...wanna watch a good team in the future? Then finish low and draft out of the top 3 positions. Lose, lose, lose boys....i gave up hope on this team doing anything back when they had first round exits against Chicago, Anaheim years back and just after the cup run.

They still had a hold of me for a while after the run but that ended pretty quick when you could see the writing on the wall, core was just not working. Hoping for a full fire sale of any aging assets...Iggy, Kipper, Bouwmeester....new direction and new flavor please. The current group stinks, Iginla is either a.) getting old and lost a couple steps b.) injured c.) has lost interest because it appears that way in his play.

[Lanny'sDaMan]

Originally Posted by 89revival

Anyone cheering for wins at this point is a moron...wanna watch a good team in the future? Then finish low and draft out of the top 3 positions. Lose, lose, lose boys....i gave up hope on this team doing anything back when they had first round exits against Chicago, Anaheim years back and just after the cup run.

They still had a hold of me for a while after the run but that ended pretty quick when you could see the writing on the wall, core was just not working. Hoping for a full fire sale of any aging assets...Iggy, Kipper, Bouwmeester....new direction and new flavor please. The current group stinks, Iginla is either a.) getting old and lost a couple steps b.) injured c.) has lost interest because it appears that way in his play.

Then I am a moron and freaking proud of it. Yes I am frustrated beyond belief, and I piss and moan about the Flames more often then gush about them these last few years. That being said, I also will NEVER cheer for this team to lose. I want wins Gul Durnit. Losing is NOT fun. Winning is. Again yes this team needs to make some HUGE changes, as there is a systemic problem with the core of the team. But again, I HATE seeing them lose.

So call me a moron, rock on with that. I will still have pride and cheer for wins EVERY. LAST. GAME.

[djsFlames]

If, say we drafted 2nd overall after Florida who pick Seth Jones 1st, who would you then take with everyone else available to you?

Do you draft according to current team needs in size and projected 1st line ability at center, or do you take (by many accounts) the bpa at 2nd overall in Drouin, who though happens to have some of the same qualities as Sven and doesn't exactly bring you that physical element as say a Barkov and to a lesser degree MacKinnon would?

[StrykerSteve]

The more they lose, the more they win. So cheering for losses makes perfect sense to me.

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

If, say we drafted 2nd overall after Florida who pick Seth Jones 1st, who would you then take with everyone else available to you?

Do you draft according to current team needs in size and projected 1st line ability at center, or do you take (by many accounts) the bpa at 2nd overall in Drouin, who though happens to have some of the same qualities as Sven and doesn't exactly bring you that physical element as say a Barkov and to a lesser degree MacKinnon would?

It all starts and end for this team with Nathan Mackinnon. If he's available, they will draft him.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

If, say we drafted 2nd overall after Florida who pick Seth Jones 1st, who would you then take with everyone else available to you?

Do you draft according to current team needs in size and projected 1st line ability at center, or do you take (by many accounts) the bpa at 2nd overall in Drouin, who though happens to have some of the same qualities as Sven and doesn't exactly bring you that physical element as say a Barkov and to a lesser degree MacKinnon would?

It's a toss up. Probably many scouts have very different top 4 lists. I don't think Drouin is now the clearcut, consensus #2. I don't think there's a lot separating some of these guys.

If the Flames have all these guys ranked super closely then I suspect we might not go for the LW as we have Baertschi and Gaudreau already at that position. But if they do take Drouin I'll be fine with it as he is an absolute wizard with the puck and has a higher upside than Baertschi IMO.

I'd prefer Jones, MacKinnon or Barkov over Drouin but taking Drouin would be fine too. Wish I had seen a few more games of these players. I'll definitely be ordering some draft publications this year.

There are more possibilities this year IMO for the bottom 4 teams to swap picks and try and get the guy they like best. I think because these top ranked guys are so close the organizations may try and draft by position more than is usual.