2013 Calgary Flames Playoff Odds

[Caged Great]

Bumpdated

[Caged Great]

Now we need 2 out of every three points the rest of the way to possibly make 8th.

[dammage79]

Still last? Check.

[JurassicTunga12]

How long before the Flames are officially eliminated from playoff contention?

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

How long before the Flames are officially eliminated from playoff contention?

Probably before the trade deadline at this rate.

Edit, mathematically, likely not till the 40th game or so depending.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

How long before the Flames are officially eliminated from playoff contention?

I thought that happened 24 games or so ago.

[Caged Great]

Just being curious, a .800 record in the remaining games would net the Flames 60 points (Only the Ducks and Hawks). Needing a .800 record to hit 54 points is where I basically call the Flames eliminated.

If the Flames were to lose 5 games in a row, it would cause that % to go over .800 (currently we need .667 to hit 54)

[trublmaker]

sadly another fruitless and pointless season where the team has way too many off nights. Small soft team. I miss the days of old when we were a wrecking machine, win or lose the other team went away bruised and bloody. Not anymore.

[Caged Great]

If Minnesota (8th) went .500 the rest of the way they would finish with 51 points, the Flames would need to go 14-9-1 to hit that mark

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If Minnesota (8th) went .500 the rest of the way they would finish with 51 points, the Flames would need to go 14-9-1 to hit that mark

except that if Minnesota goes 500 the rest of the way, they will no longer be in 8th

[Enoch Root]

the current pace for 8th is 54 pts. I believe that won't do it though because 1) with lots of teams in the race, winning it will require a push, and 2) so far this year Chicago and Anaheim are a combined 40-5-6 which is taking wins away from everyone else. I doubt either team maintains that pace so the rest of the field should do better in the second half than they did in the first (aggregately)

I think it takes 55 points. That would mean 9 games over, such as 14-5-5

But it gets worse because the Flames have a lot of road games left. If they can play 500 on the road, say 5-5-3 they would have to go 10-1-0 at home. Yes, 10-1

Is this doable. Of course it is. However, the likelihood is less than 10%. Even if they somehow managed a miracle trade, the odds wouldn't really change.

So management has to ask themselves a simple question: should they be buyers in the hopes of some (maybe) 10% shot at a miracle run? Or should they accept their almost certain fate and be sellers in order to strengthen the future?

I don't care how optimistic you are, the only rational choice is the second one

[Caged Great]

Bumpdated. Now we only need a .652 win % to hit 54 instead of .667.

[Poe969]

lol. Helps put things in persepective. We did just play a pretty good game but they're tied for last in the west and they're 25th overall....

[David Struch]

If Calgary wins the next one then all of a sudden... Flames are only two points away from being tied for 8th and only four points behind Vancouver for 3rd place in the Western Conference! (but losing the tie breakers atm)

[moon]

Originally Posted by David Struch

If Calgary wins the next one then all of a sudden... Flames are only two points away from being tied for 8th and only four points behind Vancouver for 3rd place in the Western Conference! (but losing the tie breakers atm)

Again not about points but teams needed to pass especially in a year of pony playing Western teams.

[Mr.Coffee]

It's way easier to believe Calgary will miss. Here's how I see it:

They will miss.

In the unicorn likely realm that they miracle on ice this bitch and make it, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Win win for me.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by David Struch;4132863[B

]If Calgary wins the next one then all of a sudden... Flames are only two points away from being tied for 8th[/B] and only four points behind Vancouver for 3rd place in the Western Conference! (but losing the tie breakers atm)

That's if every team in front of them loses also. It's not so much the points its the amount of teams they have to pass.

[Red John]

The division may be Calgary's best shot at making the playoffs.

Vancouver is looking all out of sorts and Minnesota really hasn't been that impressive given their off-season.

Moreover, the team has a few games left against those teams so four-point opportunities.

[moon]

Theoretically it might be the best shot but having watched this team for 25 games I can't see this team playing 2 games better than the Canucks or Wild based on their schedule left.

[Macho0978]

Reading this thread is exactly why the NHL will never get rid of the OTL point. We are in 15th and so many fans think we have a chance. Hopes go way up after 1 win against a team we need to catch. But with so many 3 point games in is next to impossible to gain points and pass 7 teams unless you have a 3-4 game win streaks. These games need to be won in regulation and can't be followed by losing streaks either. If we beat Nashville and Dallas our next 2 then maybe we have a hope but like most are saying a hope to finish 8th? Until we start beating the best teams who cares?