2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[Jason14h]

As has been previously stated, the Jays promised Bautista when he signed they would make moves to become a contender.

We have wasted years of Clemens winning Cy Youngs. They wasted years of Halliday. At some point you need to go all in and try to take the jump.

Also, in order to retain Johnson the Jays need to make the playoffs and increase revenue. If we miss the playoffs it is almost a certainty Johnson is not on this team next season

[Caged Great]

Well, the jays are already likely going to see a huge bump in their ratings, similar to what was 2 years ago to last year. I know I'll be watching every game or PVRing it. They've also sold a huge amount of tickets as well, and will likely average 35K per night, shocking as that might be.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The other factor is that Halladay had control of the situation in that deal. He could basically tell the Blue Jays where he was going to be traded because as a 10 and 5 player he could invoke his no trade clause. So that has a huge impact on what a team can get in a trade.

Similarly, but not to the same magnitude, Dickey can refuse to sign an extension with certain teams (not saying he has that in mind). If he wants to play for a winner, in a certain geographical location or for a certain dollar figure, he can refuse an extension that most certainly is the hinge for any deal involving significant assets going back to the Mets.

[bluejays]

35K per game is insane for a city like Toronto. So much buzz in the city since THE trade a month ago.

One thing I've been thinking about with respect to this trade though, to determine if it's even, is if this trade went down, and if each team were to immediately trade the same player for a similar package, would any other team bite? In other words, would Toronto be able to flip Dickey for a top catcher and a major upside pitcher? I really don't think any team would budge at that price. On the other hand, would NY have takers for D'Arnaud and Syndergaard for a quadi-elite pitcher? I don't think they'd have a problem. It's just speculation, but I really think Toronto's overpaying on this when they don't have to.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by fleury

35K per game is insane for a city like Toronto. So much buzz in the city since THE trade a month ago.

One thing I've been thinking about with respect to this trade though, to determine if it's even, is if this trade went down, and if each team were to immediately trade the same player for a similar package, would any other team bite? In other words, would Toronto be able to flip Dickey for a top catcher and a major upside pitcher? I really don't think any team would budge at that price. On the other hand, would NY have takers for D'Arnaud and Syndergaard for a quadi-elite pitcher? I don't think they'd have a problem. It's just speculation, but I really think Toronto's overpaying on this when they don't have to.

How many teams are in position to want a pitcher like Dickey to push them over the top. It's a much smaller pool of teams, as any team rebuilding or in a transition phase would not likely want to give up that much for Dickey. We also must take into account the amount of pitching depth the Jays still have in the organization. Lots of teams are so thin at the position in the minors, they'd be unable to give up much.

The question that comes from your proposed question has to be, who else could the Jays get for these two players? I don't see them being able to bring back a #1 pitcher. I think right now for starting pitching, Dickey provides the most value and upside for potential #1 guys available.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

But the trade market for pitching is a lot different now. Look at what Gonzalez, Latos and Shields all got back.

Johnson very well could walk. But if ownership is willing to spend on Dickey and everyone else, no reason to think Jays wouldn't offer up the moon to keep him.

Not sure I get the "pay money like Dickey was a FA" and also the fact that you're trading for him, guarantees his services as opposed to bidding on a free agent. Of course you're going to have to give up a lot for him, especially with the value he has only making 5 million next season, less then John Buck.

I agree that the trade market for a top 1/2 of the rotation starting pitcher is remarkable right now. My "pay money like Dickey was a FA" point is that an extension, I would suspect, would be a 2-3 deal that would add money to his 2013 salary so he wouldn't earn just $5M. Regardless, the amount of money the Jays will pay Dickey to have the trade go through and keep him with the team beyond a 1-year rental will be similar to that which they would have had to have paid a FA. The benefit, however, to signing someone like Sanchez or Jackson is that you wouldn't have to give up any assets.

To me, the Dickey deal was the absolute worst case scenario - pay an old guy a ton of money, a guy that to me is not proven to be worth what the Jays gave up or what they are reportedly going to pay him, and they had to give up significant assets to gain the ability to sign him to an extension.

I get a certain degree of the sentiment that prospects are there largely to get proven players (which is ironic on a Flames site), but the quality and number (2) of prospects for Dickey is something I'm just not on board with.

I hope the deal falls apart and AA picks up someone else for the rotation on the FA ticker or waits until spring training and deals with someone like LA who has an excess of SPs. If the deal goes through, I hope I'm wrong and Toronto wins a WS within a couple years.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

Similarly, but not to the same magnitude, Dickey can refuse to sign an extension with certain teams (not saying he has that in mind). If he wants to play for a winner, in a certain geographical location or for a certain dollar figure, he can refuse an extension that most certainly is the hinge for any deal involving significant assets going back to the Mets.

The extension does impact what the Mets can get, but Dickey can't do anything to prevent the Mets from trading him, which is where the big difference is.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

I agree that the trade market for a top 1/2 of the rotation starting pitcher is remarkable right now. My "pay money like Dickey was a FA" point is that an extension, I would suspect, would be a 2-3 deal that would add money to his 2013 salary so he wouldn't earn just $5M. Regardless, the amount of money the Jays will pay Dickey to have the trade go through and keep him with the team beyond a 1-year rental will be similar to that which they would have had to have paid a FA. The benefit, however, to signing someone like Sanchez or Jackson is that you wouldn't have to give up any assets.

To me, the Dickey deal was the absolute worst case scenario - pay an old guy a ton of money, a guy that to me is not proven to be worth what the Jays gave up or what they are reportedly going to pay him, and they had to give up significant assets to gain the ability to sign him to an extension.

I get a certain degree of the sentiment that prospects are there largely to get proven players (which is ironic on a Flames site), but the quality and number (2) of prospects for Dickey is something I'm just not on board with.

I hope the deal falls apart and AA picks up someone else for the rotation on the FA ticker or waits until spring training and deals with someone like LA who has an excess of SPs. If the deal goes through, I hope I'm wrong and Toronto wins a WS within a couple years.

Edwin Jackson is a terrible pitcher who stays healthy and with Sanchez, who's to say the Jays didn't inquire about him or that he would have just re-signed with the Tigers anyways? Also, there's a ton of risk in his contract and could handicap the Jays financially going forward. I've got some pretty strong opinions about this however and think I'm going to stay quiet till the actual trade is announced and we see how much he signs for and who the Jays get back. It's been awesome debate, just a little exhausted talking hypotheticals right now lol.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The extension does impact what the Mets can get, but Dickey can't do anything to prevent the Mets from trading him, which is where the big difference is.

True enough. Dickey has a certain level of control which differs from Halladay's 10-5 rights. I just have a tough time reconciling that Dickey's return for the Mets will be similar to Halladay's return for the Jays... just doesn't seem right when you compare the level of pitcher Halladay is versus Dickey.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Edwin Jackson is a terrible pitcher who stays healthy and with Sanchez, who's to say the Jays didn't inquire about him or that he would have just re-signed with the Tigers anyways? Also, there's a ton of risk in his contract and could handicap the Jays financially going forward. I've got some pretty strong opinions about this however and think I'm going to stay quiet till the actual trade is announced and we see how much he signs for and who the Jays get back. It's been awesome debate, just a little exhausted talking hypotheticals right now lol.

The Jays tried to give their dough away last year and couldn't find any takers. Maybe they did offer big dough to Sanchez. I just think the Jays are near taking the absolute worst approach to getting a SP, and would rather they taken aim at a lower in the rotation guy or went after someone a little later on.

Wait until it shakes out. I'm just really surprised at the overall positive feeling about this trade - basically the opposite of what I feel (don't like the player, don't like the reported figures, don't like the prospect expense).

[howard_the_duck]

Edwin Jackson is not a terrible pitcher. He's not a 5 year $70-75 million pitcher, but he's a very good mid-rotation arm who has stuff electric enough on some nights to look like an ace.

I don't like the deal. Too much to give up and no matter how much I read on it my mind hasn't changed.

Am I thrilled about the Jays rotation next year? Absolutely - this team has the inside track on the division right now and it's going to be a fun, fun year to be a fan.

But TDA and Syndergaard is a massive price, one I would have been much more comfortable paying for a younger stud pitcher with upside.

[TitovFTW]

What purpose would a lower in the rotation guy serve? The difference between Happ and some #4 starter is nothing, especially for a possible 90 win team. It's a huge price to give up, there's a lot of risk involved, but there's absolutely a huge payoff also involved, the biggest of them all, winning a World Series and having a strong 3 year window to do it.

One thing we can all agree on, get the extension sign and make this official so we can actually debate it and know all the details.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

he's a top 10 prospect right now

he's probably barely top 50 as a 1B

this is what was wrote by John Sickels after the trade, Keith Law's writeup on him on the prospect update was pretty much the same

his value is based on position, which is so high because the position is so rare to have elite guys

I'd say top 10 is a big stretch even. I don't remember any publication that had him as a top 10 prospect before the year. I'd say he came into the year around 15-20 overall. He had a great start to the year, but another major injury isn't going to jump him up the list (especially a knee injury for a catcher). I'd say he's safely in that 20-30 range when you consider the added risk factor (as one of his key positives was that the rest of his game makes him a very safe bet to produce in the MLB). A great prospect, but not a can't miss type of guy.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Edwin Jackson is not a terrible pitcher. He's not a 5 year $70-75 million pitcher, but he's a very good mid-rotation arm who has stuff electric enough on some nights to look like an ace.

I don't like the deal. Too much to give up and no matter how much I read on it my mind hasn't changed.

Am I thrilled about the Jays rotation next year? Absolutely - this team has the inside track on the division right now and it's going to be a fun, fun year to be a fan.

But TDA and Syndergaard is a massive price, one I would have been much more comfortable paying for a younger stud pitcher with upside.

Look what KC just gave up for James Shields. A very good pitcher who was unbelievable last season, but that was his only season with an ERA below 3.50 in 7 MLB seasons. And he's already 31 so he's not exactly young either.

Teams are starting to realize that any pitcher worth a damn is getting big bucks in free agency and the only way to keep any costs down is via trade. That increase in demand has driven the asking prices way up. For a team like KC it makes no sense to pay them. For a team like the Jays, the added value of Dickey is worth millions upon millions of dollars if it gets them into the playoffs.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Andy Martino
‏@MartinoNYDN

Tell you in three years if I like this deal for Mets. Tell you right now it's perfect for Jays. Right time to go all in, deal prospects

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Anthony DiComo
‏@AnthonyDiComo

#Mets gambling more that d'Arnaud becomes a perennial All-Star than that Dickey falls off. Hard to see Dickey not being very good next year.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Marc Carig
‏@MarcCarig

Rival exec says Syndergaard already has advanced feel for fastball/curve/change. On the Mets-Jays trade overall, he says "both sides win."

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by JayP

Look what KC just gave up for James Shields. A very good pitcher who was unbelievable last season, but that was his only season with an ERA below 3.50 in 7 MLB seasons. And he's already 31 so he's not exactly young either.

Teams are starting to realize that any pitcher worth a damn is getting big bucks in free agency and the only way to keep any costs down is via trade. That increase in demand has driven the asking prices way up. For a team like KC it makes no sense to pay them. For a team like the Jays, the added value of Dickey is worth millions upon millions of dollars if it gets them into the playoffs.

But the Jays are going to end up giving Dickey an extension that's comparable to FA contracts (assuming his asking price of $13M per season). Add that to the prospects and its a huge price. It's not like the Jays acquire a guy with a bunch of years left or is proven (to the level that this trade would suggest) or would be under their control for 5+ years.

Bah. We'll see when it shakes out.

[Sylvanfan]

I think I'd chance Dickey 2 years at 13 per year before I consider Jackson or Sanchez for 15-16 million a year on 5 year terms just because they're younger. The money does mean something, and at the end of the day we don't know if any of the other guys would have signed in Toronto.

[Where ru Chris O'Sullivan]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Well, since this deal will probably go through, what's your rotation look like? I'll take a stab at it.......

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle
Johnson
Romero

God, thats an insane problem to ponder!

I would go
Dickey
Johnson
Buerhle
Morrow
Romero...

Imagine in EVERY 3 game series, your going to see 1 hard thrower, a lefty and either a junk baller, a second hard thrower or a second lefty starter....

The rotation and lineup look so good, I'm now concerned about the bullpen again....