Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Spuds_Buckley

I see everyone seems to be jumping on the Browns wagon but I'll toss out some stats to stir the pot:
1. Ravens have not lost back-to-back games since 2009
2. Flacco's career QB rating after a loss is 102.2
3. Ravens are 4-0 after a bye under Harbaugh.

So yes, they are banged up... but my money's going on B'more

I put little or no value into gambling trends from anything longer then this season. Ravens are clearly a much different team then past years and their defense is in the bottom tier of the league. Especially the small sample size of 4 games, where we are not given home/away strength of opponent and so on.

I still like Baltimore to cover this weekend. As much as we can pick apart the mess of this Ravens team, the Browns are the furthest thing from a sure thing.

[rubecube]

Alright, I need some hedging advice. I played a TOTO ticket out here (similar to pools except you have to factor in "ties" where games are decided by 3 points or less). I went 11/12 yesterday, leaving me with the Monday night game. It's not a perfect 13/13, but both 12 and 11 will pay out here.

On average, getting 12 has been paying out $16,675.30. However there have been some outliers. On the low side, 12 paid out $84.45, $331.4, and $478.71. On the high side, it's paid out $82,584.20.

I should be hedging at least $500, right? It's only paying less than a grand 37% of the time.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Alright, I need some hedging advice. I played a TOTO ticket out here (similar to pools except you have to factor in "ties" where games are decided by 3 points or less). I went 11/12 yesterday, leaving me with the Monday night game. It's not a perfect 13/13, but both 12 and 11 will pay out here.

On average, getting 12 has been paying out $16,675.30. However there have been some outliers. On the low side, 12 paid out $84.45, $331.4, and $478.71. On the high side, it's paid out $82,584.20.

I should be hedging at least $1000, right? It's only paying less than a grand 37% of the time.

Did you take New Orleans?

Eagles are +3 you could try and middle it at +3.5 and win both. $1000 sounds right.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Did you take New Orleans?

Eagles are +3 you could try and middle it at +3.5 and win both. $1000 sounds right.

Took the Eagles. In retrospect, this was the game we should've blocked off instead of PIT/NYG. Forgot to add that I split pool winnings with a friend, so I think $500 is a better number.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Took the Eagles. In retrospect, this was the game we should've blocked off instead of PIT/NYG. Forgot to add that I split pool winnings with a friend, so I think $500 is a better number.

Yikes. Saints are 1.68. So you're hedging $1000 to get $680, $500 to get $340.. not really worth it.

I'd let it ride. Hedgeing is for wimps. Saints are going to win anyways.

[GirlySports]

sorry that made absolutely no sense... I keep thinking you took the Saints.

Eagles are going to win anyways!!!!!

......

Do you have live betting? The only thing I can think of is if the Eagles take the lead (like 3-0) and then the odds even up a bit, then you can hedge. If the Saints take the lead, I think you're hooped either way.

Also keep in mind that since the Eagles are the underdog, less people took them. So a 12 win share with an Eagles win will have more money in it than a 12 win share with the Saints in it. Hedgeing might be worth it but the odds of 1.68 are just too low.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

sorry that made absolutely no sense... I keep thinking you took the Saints.

Eagles are going to win anyways!!!!!

......

Do you have live betting? The only thing I can think of is if the Eagles take the lead (like 3-0) and then the odds even up a bit, then you can hedge. If the Saints take the lead, I think you're hooped either way.

Also keep in mind that since the Eagles are the underdog, less people took them. So a 12 win share with an Eagles win will have more money in it than a 12 win share with the Saints in it. Hedgeing might be worth it but the odds of 1.68 are just too low.

Yes, all very solid points. This ticket might not be worth very much this week anyways, since there were only three upsets and a tie, two of those upsets were fairly predictable I think as well (Tampa and Pittsburgh). That being said, according to Yahoo, 75% of the people like the Saints tonight, so it would be huge if the Eagles pull it off (knock on wood).

[zukes]

I was up $70 yesterday. Made 6 - $25 bets.

Pit win - right
Cin win - wrong
Ind win - right
TB cover - right
Det cover - right

4 game parlay:

Bal, GB, Chi and Was all to cover - 1st 3 did, Washington did not. That $25 paid $319 and change.

Bet $150, won $220 and change.

For the year I am about $500 up now.

[Sylvanfan]

Normally the large spreads are one's to stay away from...but I think New England -11 and Pittsburgh -11.5 are still no brainers to me.

[rubecube]

Got in early on STL +11, HOU +1, and SEA -6.5 for next weekend.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yes, all very solid points. This ticket might not be worth very much this week anyways, since there were only three upsets and a tie, two of those upsets were fairly predictable I think as well (Tampa and Pittsburgh). That being said, according to Yahoo, 75% of the people like the Saints tonight, so it would be huge if the Eagles pull it off (knock on wood).

Would Indy have been an upset too?

I took the Browns on my Pools ticket

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Would Indy have been an upset too?

I took the Browns on my Pools ticket

No, Indy would've been considered a tie. I'm royally pissed at myself for taking the Skins. I had Panthers all the way and changed my mind last second.

[rubecube]

Stupid ####ing Eagles.

[GirlySports]

wow

There were 255 winning shares
matching 13 out of 13
for CARD 599
paying prizes of $1113.40 each.

[rubecube]

Yeah, it was very similar here in BC.

Prize Category Winners Prize Total
13/13 165 $276.58 $45,635.70
12/13 2646 $17.25 $45,643.50
11/13 18122 $2.52 $45,667.44
Total 20933 $136,946.64

[Papi34]

Money game of the week has to be Bears vs Texans, Spread should be minimal based on records and chicago being the home team, but of teams that chicago has beat the combined record is 20-36 Texans are gonna rout the bears sunday night.

Im Texans all day long

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Papi34

Money game of the week has to be Bears vs Texans, Spread should be minimal based on records and chicago being the home team, but of teams that chicago has beat the combined record is 20-36 Texans are gonna rout the bears sunday night.

Im Texans all day long

^^This. That Texans' defensive line is gonna wreak havoc on the Bears.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Papi34

Money game of the week has to be Bears vs Texans, Spread should be minimal based on records and chicago being the home team, but of teams that chicago has beat the combined record is 20-36 Texans are gonna rout the bears sunday night.

Im Texans all day long

Bears -1.5

[HOOT]

http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sp...00000/12147040

Woman Hits 15-Game Parlay At Red Rock In Vegas For $100,000!

[HOOT]

Last week only went in on 4 games, games that I went in early in the week, as I got busy leading up to the weekend and then took off for a small road trip. Went 2-2 so still can't win, but not really losing. Oh well.